Posted this in the GTO/Theory forum but didn't get any replies. Anyone have any ideas?

See the screeshot below for details of the spot. I'm wondering why solver is checking so much on the KJTss flop when it looks like we have a pretty significant range advantage, lots of equity, and no nut disadvantage. Compared, for example, with a KJ9ss flop, solver is rangebetting, we have somewhat better EQR, but otherwise I can't see how the situation is all that different (second image).

These boards are different. On a KJT board you have a lot of OESD type of hands(10%?), on a KJ9 board only gutshots. I think that's the reason why.

On KJT you can easily make a check-call two streets with QJ, but on KJ9 you hate life doing that.

On KJT there are more defensive options available. But that's just my opinion. I'm not a GTO expert.

I think it's better to take a different approach here. Don't look on the card distribution because it might fool you as in this example. KJT vs KJ9 might seem similar, but in reality they're not.

On a KJT board, you have a 15% chance(OESD) and a 47% chance of a gutshot

On a KJ9 board, you have a 0% chance(OESD) and a 43% chance of a gutshot

2 different story

Maybe I should have left out the KJ9 comparison. The different drawing potential is pretty clear, but looking at the KJT board in isolation, given our equity and our range, I'm still surprised we're basically range checking. Ultimately the EV of checking on KJT is apparently higher than that of betting. Maybe we just have a lot of strong hands with a draw that don't want to get raised, while our strongest hands can get value from letting villain bet his own strong hands?

I don't think it's only the OESD potential. Look at a KQJ board for example, where we have fewer draws than KJT, but still a significant amount.

I've played around with that, and here's what I found:

If you take a x call line

On a KJT board:

There are 16 turn cards that improve your EV over your opponent's, while 33 turn cards favor your opponent.
On 8 of those cards, you gain a substantial advantage, and only 1 card is very bad for us.

On a KJ9 board:

There are 19 turn cards that improve your range and 30 cards that improve your oponent's range.
On 6 of those cards, you gain a substantial advantage, and none put us in a really bad spot.

Additionally:

On the KJT board, 5 cards give you close to breakeven eq.
On the KJ9 board, there are 11 cards give you close to breakeven eq.

Overall, the distribution of turn cards seems better on the KJ9 board. With KJT, you either hit big with T+ or hate life with 8 and lower cards. Even KJ98 gives Tx hands an OESD