Quote:
Well,
Pokerstove
AdQh vs. AA,QQ,88,33,AQsAQo,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc,J c9c,Tc9c
43.295% vs. 56.705%
Using effective stacks:
Shove = invest 558 more
To win: 684 x 2 = 1368
0.43285 * 1368 = 592
On average, you end up with $592 (vs. 558 you stay with if you fold), but the range is ideal and assumes he always calls with the draw (not so). Shoving turn seems marginal at best.
Didn't check your math but assuming it is right, that is $34 that you are lighting on fire if you fold. May not seem like a lot, but it represents almost 3% of the final pot which over time is a ton of money.
Not sure about your comment regarding "assumes he always calls with the draw". If he folds, then the push is still higher EV than calling because if you just call, you don't win the pot 100% of the time like you do if he folds (not to mention that calling puts you to a more difficult decision on the river with a lot river cards).
Anyway, I just don't think we can polarize his range to so few hands that would ever make this a fold. And since we lose $EV by calling, pushing can't ever be wrong.