Quote:
Originally Posted by GrandMelon
Very true Kos but if hes doing this first we need to think what kind of hands would get to the river like this that he thinks are ahead of my double barrel range but behind my triple barrel range that he has to turn into a bluff.
A hand like TT could get to the river here if he thinks I double barrel a lot. But even against the most aggro of players calling a third barrel on this river with TT would be -EV imo so c/r AI is def superior to calling. However I really dont think hes calling both flop and turn after I raised UTG and bet flop into 2 people and bet turn so I think mid pairs like TT arent getting to the river very often.
Jx makes sense if I had something other than JJ but since I have two of them it greatly reduces the chance he has one. Plus the fact that the J is the J of hearts is fairly important since it eliminates Jhxh hands. Given this we can probably eliminate Jx from his range
I feel like most people usually c/r big combo draw hands like 78s and KTs on the flop here.
Looking back I really think its either a bizarrely played set or a hand like 6hxh/bare nut flush draw but given board texture i really cant see it being a set extremely often
Yeah, it is hard for him to get to the river with a ton of hands he can turn into a bluff (like TT or Jx), though 87s and T8s are possible. Also, there are plenty of thinking villains who still wouldn't consider c/shoving this river with a pair as a bluff, so it depends on how good/spewy he is, and if he thought to do it in the ~20 seconds he had to decide while playing 15 other tables.
What's weird, though, is how hard it is for him to have a flush. An aggro villain is probably c/r the flop with 6
x
and all straight flush draws. If you take out just those hands, his range is super narrow as far as flushes (assuming he doesn't flat your raises out of the BB with crap like K8s): Axs, 85s, 75s, 74s, 54s, and maybe 42s...and that's assuming he doesn't c/r with the NFD.
So yeah, I don't know. Weird hand.