Villain is GoTribeGrdy who Im sure were all familiar with. No crazy history between us or anything, probably views me as the rest of you do, whatever that is.

Poker Stars $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG+1): $735.00
MP1: $317.65
MP2: $126.00
CO: $270.00
BTN: $600.00
SB: $317.60
BB: $696.00
UTG: $600.00

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is UTG+1 with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to $18, MP1 calls $18, 4 folds, BB calls $12

Flop: ($57.00) 6 J 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $36, MP1 folds, BB calls $36

Turn: ($129.00) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $96, BB calls $96

River: ($321.00) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $198, BB raises to $546 all in,

is ur flop betsize a joke or somthing?

usually bet 42 there playing more tbles than usual guess i clicked one too few

He raises any set on turn. And might flat a set on river too. Looks like a fold

Id fold, we could easily have a flush and he knows that. The only argument for calling is if hed take this line with a set or hell turn some made hand into a bluff which would be sick but not likely.

i think its a pretty easy fold, but I hate your river betsize.

how come

i think i like the hand as played but good players bluff this river on occasion in my experience.

that said i still think fold probably best.

i might call this

his range is weak made hands, and draws that hit. if you bet smaller you are more likely to get value or induce a bluff from the stuff you beat, and don't end up losing as much if you decide to fold to his c/r. I just don't think he shows up with too many sets/two pair on this river so we can really put in a large v-bet.

type LOL in the chat and fold

none of u clowns ever fold this at the tables

lol fold he has a flush

he's flushing....fold.

I'm not necessarily saying we should call, but if a thinking player realizes we are folding top set here, shouldn't he be c/shoving this river with every hand? Obviously, he can't do it every time this situation comes up (we'd start snapping with JJ and worse), but in a vacuum, shouldn't he know that we know that he knows that we know we should fold JJ?

,

and?

Very true Kos but if hes doing this first we need to think what kind of hands would get to the river like this that he thinks are ahead of my double barrel range but behind my triple barrel range that he has to turn into a bluff.

A hand like TT could get to the river here if he thinks I double barrel a lot. But even against the most aggro of players calling a third barrel on this river with TT would be -EV imo so c/r AI is def superior to calling. However I really dont think hes calling both flop and turn after I raised UTG and bet flop into 2 people and bet turn so I think mid pairs like TT arent getting to the river very often.

Jx makes sense if I had something other than JJ but since I have two of them it greatly reduces the chance he has one. Plus the fact that the J is the J of hearts is fairly important since it eliminates Jhxh hands. Given this we can probably eliminate Jx from his range

I feel like most people usually c/r big combo draw hands like 78s and KTs on the flop here.

Looking back I really think its either a bizarrely played set or a hand like 6hxh/bare nut flush draw but given board texture i really cant see it being a set extremely often

Umm it's pretty standard, unless you think there is a huge difference between 42 and 36.

i think he shoulda bet smaller

I don't know how tight you are UTG+1, but if you're anything like most players, your range on the river is a nonflush like five times as often as a flush, especially with the Jh and 9h removing a lot of good suited connectors from your flush range. So if he's capable of taking that into account, I don't see why he couldn't c/r JXs, 9x or TT that he got really stubborn with, and to a lesser extent QQ. The thing that's really ****ty here is that you have severe blockers to all his Jx hands, to the point where you'd rather have 99 in this spot OR, even better, AhAx, since I really doubt he'd overrep a nonflush hand for value this way.

I'd give you my advice but I think you're well aware of my proclivities involving folding top set. 42 on the flop and then 114 on the turn though.

Yeah, it is hard for him to get to the river with a ton of hands he can turn into a bluff (like TT or Jx), though 87s and T8s are possible. Also, there are plenty of thinking villains who still wouldn't consider c/shoving this river with a pair as a bluff, so it depends on how good/spewy he is, and if he thought to do it in the ~20 seconds he had to decide while playing 15 other tables.

What's weird, though, is how hard it is for him to have a flush. An aggro villain is probably c/r the flop with 6x and all straight flush draws. If you take out just those hands, his range is super narrow as far as flushes (assuming he doesn't flat your raises out of the BB with crap like K8s): Axs, 85s, 75s, 74s, 54s, and maybe 42s...and that's assuming he doesn't c/r with the NFD.

So yeah, I don't know. Weird hand.

i think it really depends how good he is, only a very tiny proportion of players even think about turning a hand into a bluff on this river let alone actually doing it, not to mention they wouldn't even be doing it 100% of the time in this spot. so the probability is def that he is not bluffing but that doesn't mean he isn't value shoving worse.

is it possible he thinks you like to bet/fold a lot of scary rivers? cos that mite be enough to make it a call

Sounds like you know this villain pretty well so is he capable of making this move on the river without a flush? I dont play on PS so I don't know.

Seems to me like it would have been better in this spot to v-bet less on this river (or not at all) if we didn't know how we would respond to his raise. I actually think a lot of his range here is flushes so my inclination is to fold and I prob. would have just checked back the river.