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-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? -5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK?

10-04-2008 , 11:05 PM
Hero is BB with about $600 to start the hand.

V1 UTG+1 $520
V2 UTG+2 $350


All others not players. V1 is loose but pretty solid and good hand reader. V2 is LLLLLAAAAAGGG and not good. Will put chips in pot and is good for the game (IMO).

V1 limps, V2 raises to $20. 3 more callers. I call with:

A4

V1 calls.

Flop: Q95

I check, V1 checks, V2 (pre-flop raiser) bets....$10. $10 into $120 pot. 4 callers to me and I raiser to $80. V1 raises to $280 and folds back to me.

V1 knows I'm probably not betting with air so I do put him on top 2 at least. He has $212 behind.

About $550 in the pot. Either call or shove but I'm positive he's calling a shove which essentially means I'm betting $412 (call of $200 raise plus $212 more) to win the pot ($550) plus his remaining $212.

Fold or shove?
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-05-2008 , 01:04 AM
I think you are up against QQ or 99 too often for this to be a profitable play. I think this is an easy fold.
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-05-2008 , 02:43 AM
Don't raise the donkbet. He has a monster or a draw and just made a stupid bet to let you draw to the nuts on the cheap. You will see 10hJh or a set here almost every time. He gave you great odds to draw and that is what you should do. You can't muscle your way through this pot when it is 6 way action. Just take a card on the cheap and if you hit the flush on the turn bet it hard. There may be a smaller flush in their with you and you don't want to knock them out on the flop. Also the donk better will probably call a huge bet on the turn when the flush hits trying to fill up his trips cause he will be kicking himself for the stupid donkbet.
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-05-2008 , 03:46 AM
Just calling the flop bet is definitely an option, but everybody has shown such weakness that I think raising is better.

If you raise, make it around $200 so you make it clear you're willing to play for stacks and have an easy call if it gets shoved on you. You need to raise a lot more than $80 if you hope to get everybody to fold on the flop.

As it is, you raised an amount that is too small to just take the pot down on the flop and which forces you to fold to V1's re-raise.
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-05-2008 , 08:51 PM
All read dependent, and it seems like you have pretty good reads on the players. As played, I probably fold here, although you easily could be up against another flush. I agree with Proof, either raise enough for stacks or just flat call. I lean towards flat calling.
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-06-2008 , 04:22 AM
I think as played I would call. But those donk bet is great for you and a call. No raise needed. Made hands will call or shove to youre raise and you are just still drawing!
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-07-2008 , 01:53 PM
I've learned the following from the replies so far:

1. Calling might be OK but if I choose to raise, a $70 raise into $200 is too small
2. With the amount I had invested folding the flop re-raise I was faced with is likely the correct option

I felt that $10 bet on the flop and calls were very weak and only one player (who checked on the flop) hadn't shown major weakness by either betting or calling the $10 and thought I could take down the pot. Where I went wrong was not folding to the stronger re-raise when I knew I was behind.

Villain showed 99 for middle set. Small black card bricks on turn & river and I lose.

This was a tilt move for me, in hindsight. It was getting late in my session (< 1 hour left before I knew I was leaving) and I had already lost the following 2 pots:

1. 66, flop a set and call small flop bet (flop J-6-3). Raise when a 9 hits turn. Villain calls. River King and he checks, I bet and he pushes for 20% more than was in the pot. I call he shows 99 for turned set. About $800 pot.

2. Same villain limps along with a few others. I raise to $35 OTB w/ JJ. 2 blinds call and villain pushes for $145 all day. I re-raise to $280. Blinds fold. 9-9-5 flop, 4 turn, 4 river. Villain shows 10c4c for runner runner to win $350 pot.

Tired & tilted does not make for good poker decisions.
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-07-2008 , 04:38 PM
OP --
1. Yes. If you decide to raise, making it around $200 seems best.

Upside: everybody folds a ton.
Downside: Since you're committing yourself, you're effective risking your stack to win the $200 in the pot. When you get called you lose about $140, but when everybody folds you win ~$200 so even if you get called more than 50% of the time your raise is profitable. I think everybody will fold much more often than 50% of the time, since you pretty much only have to worry about V1 or V2 having flopped a set, making the raise +EV.


2. Yes -- this is because V1 check/cold 3-betting represents a lot of strength (top-two at minimum, most likely a set). Against a range of QQ,99,55,Q9s you have only 28% equity, which is not enough for you to continue.

If instead you had made it $200, then the amount you added to the pot with your flop raise now forces you to call the rest off no matter what he holds. However, you didn't raise to $200 just to make the hand easier to play -- you raised to $200 because it maximized your fold equity.
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote
10-08-2008 , 03:56 AM
I would definitely just call on the flop.

Factors that favor calling:
The pot is multiway, which means there are many dudes in. This increases your potential payoff and reduces your fold equity.
Your draw is to the nuts, increasing your implied odds.
You have good relative position on the people with the likely strong hand(s), increasing your implied odds.

Factors that favor raising:
Poopy
-5NL live:  Nut flush draw push OK? Quote

      
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