Villain: Loose passive. He was hot for the two hours I was playing him.


$3/5 NL (9 handed)
UTG
EP
MP
MP+1
MP+2
CO ($300)
Button Hero ($320)
SB V ($750)
BB

Hero is dealt AT

5 folds, CO limps, Hero raises to $35, V calls, 1 fold, CO calls

Flop ($100) A,T,5r
V checks, CO bet $30, Hero raises to $100, V insta raises all in, Hero?

IME, at this casino, this is a set >90%

How loose is he?

3 combos of 555, 2 combos of TTT, 2 combos of AAA
9 combos of A5, 4 combos of AT, 9 combos of T5

What does poker stove come out to?

Not loose enough to have A5 or T5. He would have reraied pre with AA.

If we include one combo of AK and AT (which is generous), we get:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: Ad Td 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.296% 23.30% 08.00% 1384 475.00 { AcTc }
Hand 1: 68.704% 60.71% 08.00% 3606 475.00 { TT, 55, AsKs, AsTs }

seems so weak to fold here esp. since u commited so much money but if ur read is tht 90% is a set then I would fold.

I guess it could be 1010 easily.

If i had a read Vil was loose i would snap this all day.

I would call. You're only 60bb deep and the pot is raised, this doesn't seem like the time for hero folds.
not sure how you have enough observations to estimate this at 90%.
Could it be A5, another AT, possibly AK?

I think your best case scenario has you chopping with A-10.
You raise pre, the CO bets that flop (Ax hand?), you raise the CO, and then the SB check-raises all in? I don't see any way he isn't showing up with 10-10 or 5-5 here.

I think at a lot of casinos this is a set.

You did put almost half your stack in though. If you are sure this is a set then fold and reload.... but like I said... half your stack is in...

Why did you raise OTF anyways? Worse hands are never calling IMO unless CO slowplayed AK, which is probably never.

Am I the only one who thinks folding is really bad here? We have put a huge chunk of our stack in and have a monster hand. While 55 is certainly a part of his range...in the 2/5 games that I play in players will spazz out with a lot of ax hands, especially only 60bbs deep! They also usually don't lead out with sets on a dry board. I would have to really have a soul-read on the guy to even think about folding

The key villain didn't lead out with a set - V c/r from the SB all-in, against a bet from the CO and then a 3-bet from the Hero. Takes one hell of a spazz to jam over the PFR when they 3bet on an ace high flop.

I did not want to let the CO set the price ($30 into $100?). I played with him a bit and felt he would have come along with a big Ace, if not for the SB. Maybe I should've raised less?

I felt most 2+2ers would take this angle. The thing is that fish often telegraph their huge hands. Some of their moves are so transparent, that one can get away from huge hands. A 3 bet crai on a dry board? Forget about it!

I am starting to develop the lines listed below against most well stacked, passive players . The following mean huge strength, and unless I have a huge hand or IO (and sometimes more than bottom set), I will fold:

1. A check raise. A min check raise is the stone cold nuts.

2. A 3 bet pre means KK+. I will need AA to continue. I have started folding KK.

3. A small 3 bet post.

I started a thread where I flopped bottom set. I lead out, got min-raised and small 3 betted. I felt sick to my stomach, but called anyway (can't fold a set!). The result was set over set over set.

I guess I'm posting these situations because they are so diametrically opposed to conventional wisdom. Is there anyone who sees this the way I do? Please note that I have gotten a TON from the posters here and agree with the vast majority of the conventional wisdom.

Ok, I misread the action on the flop. I agree that the villian's line is really strong. I guess I am not good enough to fold this hand. I also think a10 and a5 are just as big a part of his range as 55

You win, he has exactly AQ. gg.

In the 1/2 game I play a lot is filled with wicked passive players. When they are putting in raises I know that its pretty much the nuts and will fold pretty big hands...

As for this hand... I don't think I'm good enough to fold top two so I call and cry. Especially since you've already put half your stack in...

Sometimes. I firmly believe that in low stakes live play that some players narrow their range by the way they play their hand so much that it is possible to make some folds that I simply couldn't make against better players.
The problem with this hand is you are in a pot for half of your stack before you realize that something has gone horribly awry. I have folded in this spot, and I have called. I have a strong winrate, and one of the keys for me personally is knowing when I am crushed. I can grind 30bbs back fairly easily. Grinding back another 30bbs takes a while, and then I am just break even for the session.

If you know your opponent and style well enough to put them on the set, I can let this go, as you are probably looking to hit 1-3 outs. If someone says call because they have 1/2 their stack in, I can live with that as well.
If you were deeper and had 1/3 in, I would snap fold this all day.

everybody calling this a "3-bet" checkraise should notice that the first player's lead of $30 was a friggin joke, probe bet. Hero's $100 bet is close to what a pfr would normally bet.
But I do agree that our villain must at least put hero on a big ace (AJ+) or better so the c/rai is scary for sure, but I would not rule out AK or even AQ. Depends how passive this guy is, how he has played similar hands before (*note how he has played strong hands in multiway raised pots - hard to believe you have enough info in 2 hours), and to some extent what your image is. If you give yourself 31% equity, it's a call. $185 to win $550. And I do think you need to include A5s in his range.

Instacall. Your stack is too shallow, and the pot is too big to be worried about a set here, when you hold top 2

Keep in mind how ******ed people are at 1/2, and that there are plenty of players that will stack off with top pair and an over pair to the action you described, and it would be a disaster to fold a set to them. Set over sets happen so rarely, that unless you are extraordinarily deep, or have an extraordinary read, you'd be better off stacking off every time than even occasionally making an incorrect fold.

Fold, you only got 4 outs. It is a set. If villian had something like AK AQ then he would have just called the 100 and waited for turn or river to get it in. (don't ask me why they do such stupid stuff).

I wouldn't describe player as "loose" if he only has one combo of AT and zero combos of A5, but if you're confident that this is his range, this is a clear fold.

With no info, I'd put him on {AA, TT, 55, AT, A5}, which makes this a call, but being that you were there, you have more info, so go with your read .

This was a 3/5. IME, players don't stack off quite as easily.