Hero 800 TAG image. Just took a big loss in previous hand.

Villain 1 - older white male reg with 300 (he has been up and down. Solid with LAG tendencies plays connectors a calls preflop with about anything.

Villain 2 - whale 2000. He just took me for a huge pot with J10 off calling with a J for 2 sheets to hit is kicker on the river.

Im in MP with 66 and limp. V1 raised to 20 in MP. V2 raises to 60 on button. Fold to me I flat to set mine V2 with plan to fold to V1 if he shove. V2 calls...perfect.

(187 pot) Flop 654hhc Hero checks. V1 bets 40 (leaving him 200). V2 Calls. Hero c/r 110. V1 calls 70 giving him 130). V2 tanks and folds.

(447 pot) turn 2s. Hero checks. V1 shove 130.

Hero?

def call

what was your plan for checking the turn? seems like he's going to shove any turn card after b/c your x/r.. youre getting 3.5:1 on a call and i can see V1 taking this line with 33, 77-JJ, Axhh, 78

only viable hands that have you beat is 78 and 33, plus you have redraw to full house

Call. He might have a straight, but he easily could be drawing, have a smaller set, two pair, or even an overpair hoping your drawing. I would be rather worried, as his bet size on the flop is just inviting people to come along. But once he calls your check raise your pot committed against him.

Even if he has a made straight you have 10 outs, a bit over 20% to win. You need 29% on the pot odds even if you knew he had a made straight, so you need a less then 10% chance of him drawing or otherwise losing now to call. Even against a nit, there would be at least that much chance he has a smaller set.

Plan was to get all hospital money in and call. He had 23 for straight. I rivered 3 for a chop. Was the c/r to aggressive based on seeing him play all those connectors earlier - was those +ev considering most times he would do this with over pair two pair or draw?

i feel like pf is -EV

and i'd rather shove the turn rather than checking. It would be a disaster if he checks back imo.

With a set, c/r is often a good strategy against villains who play too many suited connectors and bet both made hands and draws. It lets you get more money in the pot when your ahead and charge them to draw at the same time. At the same time, it gives you more outs in the situation where they did flop it and less chance of villain catching a lesser hand that beats you anyway. This sort of potentially draw heavy flop is exactly the sort of situation where check/raising with a set is often a good idea.

With one pair or two pair it is usually better to bet into them because the risk of letting them chase cheaply is higher. There are too many ways for them to catch two pair or a higher single pair or such.

I didn't even consider villain might have 32 when I said you had 10 outs. Even many bad players avoid 32 because it is simply too weak and treacherous when it does hit. It wouldn't make much difference though, as allowing for that adds only a fraction of an out. Ignoring 73, and assuming villain is as likely to play 87 as 32, then 1/2 of the time you have 3 extra outs to chop. However, for that to be the case, villain has to have one of your outs to make a boat, slightly discounting your outs to the 2, so the total impact is less then one real out.

fold pre.
c/r flop is fine if you're going to shove turn. Luckily he went all-in. At this point it's a definite call. Big pair most likely or AXh. Call.