9 handed, $500 effective

MP limps, BN limps, Hero in SB makes it $35 with KK, MP and BN call.

Flop ($105): K 5 2
Hero bets $75, BN calls. Hero and BN are TAG.

Turn ($255): 9
Of course.

There's not a whole lot for BN to have OTF other than a FD. The chances of him having the case King is slim (and even with a hand like KTo, I would iso-raise pre OTB). I think he raises pre with 88+. I think he raises flop with a 2P or a set. I doubt he floated with hands like 66 or 44. I suppose he could have 43.

Overall, I think his range leans heavily towards a FD. Best play?

b/f $130

You can always through out a defensive bet which gives u the correct odds to chase the 10 outer full house draw. So 4-1ish sounds like a blocking bet of $60ish but I'd round up to $75 (for an interesting "same bet". Villain dependent, but I'd might well just check and see if I get the correct odds.

bet 100/fold if you are almost certain (90%+) he wouldn't shove KcX/two pair/sets on turn

otherwise bet 100/call

I like the defensive bet... $65-75... if he pops big, you can get away losing the minimum. And you still get odds to suckout if he calls.

If he's a tighter player. Yeah his range is weighted towards AX of clubs with the rest being KT-KQ, and QJ/JT/T9/98/87 of clubs.
But yes definitely a flush.
Given that I think a bet fold line here is pretty bad as he's going to raise a majority of the time and price you out to draw to a boat. I don't think you need to bet here in order to be sure that he has a flush.

I would check and call depending on how much he bets and then it's an easy evaluation on the river. If you fill up shove, if not check fold.
I wouldn't call more than $125 on the turn though.

I think checking the turn is optimal. If villain has QQ or some middle pocket pair, he will probably check behind. If he's a tricky player, he may turn his pair into a bluff, but I really doubt it. I think villain is also checking behind with the case king.

If we assume that villain did not float the flop with air, he probably has a flush or a mid pocket pair. Since he probably isn't betting the turn w/out a flush, then I think we can safely c/f the turn. I'd consider check/calling the turn for a decent price if I think villain is capable of firing without a flush, or if I think villain will call an all-in if I hit my boat. Unfortunately, we aren't that deep, so I think to c/c more than $100 is risky.

Fyp.

Yuck, yuck, and yuck. If you're going to bother firing away, make it a proper bet, otherwise just check. The "same bet" BS just says "I'm weak, but feel I must c-bet cause the book says to". I'm raising that crap 90% of the time (unless I soul read "I got a monster, please raise so I can get it in").

Personally, I think the pre and the c-bet were smallish.

Pre, with KK and two limps, you've gotta go $50-60 at least. That "3x + 1bb/limp" crap is fine online against a bunch of mult-tablers, but live it's like handing out fliers for a kegger.

Otf, We've got a set with a multi-way pot. Why would you even think of giving a FD anywhere near the right odds to call? Get it in, Man. Full psb-ish.

At this point, I guess check/call is the move. No since butchering the hand even more by risking having to fold to a shove. We've still got decent show-down value, and 10 outs to the nizzle.

Your post is full of bravado, but I'm not sure I agree with what you're saying.

For one, I think PFR and CB size are standard. With KK, we want value by getting worse hands to call. Raising 10-12x is going to get folds the vast majority of the time.

Think of it this way. Let's say you open-limped in MP for $5, saw the BN call, then the SB made it $55. What range of hands are you calling with? Are you going to call with 22? 78? A7? JT?

If you are, I think there's a leak in your game. And if you're willing to limp/call for $55 with these hands, why not just raise it to $20 in the first place? That's better poker in my eyes.

As for the CB-size, I again think it's totally standard. You suggest potting it to deny FD "anywhere near the right odds to call". How is a 3/4 PSB giving awesome odds for a FD to call?

Let's put it this way...what are the odds that the flush card comes OTT?

There are 9 flush cards left in the deck of 52. That means there's only a 17% chance of the flush coming on the next card.

That means even a 1/3 PSB denies odds to draw, nevermind my 3/4 PSB. Flush draws calling OTF rely heavily on implied odds to make up their speculative calls.

Again, with top set we want value for our hands by getting worse to call. Bombing the pot tends to get folds from hands we want calls from.

As for butchering the hand, with all due respect, that's how I would describe the hand if I had raised two limpers to $60 with the 2nd best starting hand in poker and gotten two folds.

I hate the donk turn bets. I probably chk/call turn. This is 3/5 and guys chase flush draws all the time not getting the right odds...and I mean all the time!!

Pardon my "butchering" comment. It was rude, unnecessary, and not really accurate.

As for my pf/c-bet comments...I generally play 1/2 or less, and I find at these low levels that once somebody contributes to a pot (like limping), you practically need a gun to fold them out, and we all know how brutal it is seeing a flop multi-way with AA/KK.

As for the c-bet...that's a tough quandry, one I really haven't wrapped my brain around yet: you flop a monster, easily have the best hand, so whattya do? "Bomb the pot", as you say, and potentially lose all your customers, or string them along and bleed them (and of course risking a better hand being made). I remember one hand I played (which still hurts to think about) where I flopped a Jack-high flush, played coy to build a big pot, then a fourth spade hit on the river (which I paid off because it was against the maniac who'd make the same bet whether he had it or not). Idk, the old phrase "better to win a small pot than lose a big one" pops in my mind in spots like this.

So what happened? Did you pay off the flush or what (I assume you did, which is why there's a thread)

I'll stand by my "same bet" comments, though, which is what got me commenting on this in the first place.

Bet folding is bad IMO, even c/call is better because we pay the same price but have a chance to boat up.

If you check-call turn, what's your plan for the river?

Yes, range might lean towards flush draw, but I'd quibble on how heavily it did lean. Either way, I'm betting the turn and re-evaluating based on any action back to me. I'm putting in $130 on the turn bet and we'll see what happens if it's back to me and for how much.

If he ships it all in after our bet, we're getting ~3:1 on a call. If he turned his cards face up and showed us 2 clubs, we'd need 3.4:1 to make the call of the raise correct. For the difference of 0.4:1 I think I'm calling (using the oft quoted "10% of the time he has air" line).

I might find a hero fold, but I'd have to find a read to make me do so.

OP - Do you know anything more about Villain besides "TAG"? Any tendencies, previous hands he's played might be helpful here. Any idea if he would have raised a set on the flop? I'm guessing yes given the FD out there (so that you would snap-call with AA or AK putting him on the FD)?

I think hand is well played up to this point - raise sizing pre is good, as is size of C-bet.

At this point, I lean towards check-call of a reasonable bet.

Jesus, if his range is heavily weighted toward flushes CHECK.

B/F is so stupid I can't describe it.

Preflop and flop were wp IMO.

I bet $100 and fold to a shove. Reasoning:

- flop calling ranges can include PPs with a club, Ac5x, Kx
- we want to widen villain's calling rang, and I am not worried about inducing from a 2/5 random. Wouldn't do this against a LAG.
- sets would have raised flop
- a 2/5 NL random is not going to semibluff raise this turn with any kind of frequency to make us worry about folding the best hand. Peoples love to call
- we almost set the price for our draw if behind. Bad players love to trap.

Why do you guys all want to bluff with top set? If he doesn't have a flush already, giving him a free card means we get drawn out of <18% of the time IF he has a club, vs. bet/folding $100+ which makes us lose 1) that money, 2) lose our chance to boat up if we are behind 3) make every single one of villains semi-bluffs more profitable, and make all his value-shoves <flush into profitable bluffs, 4) get called/raised by a continuing range that likely has us dominated. +, what do we think his continuing range is to a turn bet anyways? He can't have sets/two-pair given what we know of villain and his flop line, so what? It's like we know he has a flush, but want to bet/fold so we can show how great of a lay-down we can make?

Assuming our only options were to bet/fold or c/call for the same sizing, c/calling is obviously a superior play because we are paying x$ to draw rather than paying x$ to profit villain uncontested. Also, we allow villain to bet thin for protection, we allow villain to bluff, we allow top-set to not be a bluff catcher. IMO, there is no question that turn is a check>bet/fold; the real question is whether a bet/call outweighs check (this is villain dependent a lot, and I personally don't think bet/call>check), and what our turn line is after checking, and what our river line is assuming our tune line post-check brings us to 5th street.

^^^ > +1

All of the above.
I mean, he could just as well shove our Turn check or Turn bet with A J as he could with A4, right?
Not to mention medium PP's, lower sets and air?

Given the (more esteemed) advice from other posters that we're might well be committed to any non-club River anyway, surely the only real question revolves around the relative merits of checking versus shoving the Turn?

Why does this opponent's call on the flop make his only hand a flush draw? I think everyone is seeing monsters under the bed here. True, he may have a flush, but he may not. Bet $100. Re-evaluate. I'm not giving a free card here, regardless if he only hits his flush 18% of the time.

Good post. I have to think through some of the things you said and get back to you with an answer. My initial response is that by b/f $100 we set the price of our draw (he doesn't always ship flushes, ppl love to trap) and we widen his calling range to hands like pair+FD. Do you not feel these are true, or do you think these are outweighed by the reasons you gave?

So like, we check, villain bets $175. Do we just fold? That's not even counting the 18% of the time that we either let him catch or kill further action fro hands that would call a small turn bet that we beat.

No worries man, it's all good.

I think it's important to realize that when you have a monster and raise, you don't want to fold out the worse hands, you want 1 or 2 calls...especially from ones that have a slim chance to beat you. That's how you make money in poker, and those situations don't come up often enough.

If in your game you need a gun to get people to limp/fold, don't worry about it. See it as a good thing when you have KK. Raise whatever amount it takes to get it 2 or 3-handed. That's a profitable situation for you, even though you'll get beat by A3o here and there. You're getting people to put in a lot of money when you have them crushed.

Likewise, when you have top set on a FD flop, you're not looking to fold out the flush draws. You want to bet just enough to make them overpay to draw, but not fold. That's why they say 2/3 to 3/4 is about right. Remember that they'll only hit the flush 17% of the time OTT. The other 83%, you win.

No, unfortunately I don't have any more info on villain. The table was pretty tight and me, villain and one more player were the most active ones (though we were still TAG, not LAG).

The vast majority of the time, people would limp and one of us would raise and win, or CB and win. Very few showdowns.

I think he definitely raises flop with a set.

To me, this is the problem with betting or b/f $100-$130 OTT as various posters have mentioned (not to say that they're wrong, because I still don't know what the best play is).

If we bet $100 into $255, for one it looks kinda weak. And now we've put in over 40% of our stack. Can we really fold to a shove with 10 outs to come?

If my math is right, we'd have to call $290 to win a pot of $1035. I think it's really close, assuming villain can turn a Kx hand into a bluff or semibluff like K+club.

Also, I'm not sure what the $100 bet accomplishes. It doesn't fold a better hand (flush) or get called by worse (random 2P).

Given this, I think if I were to bet, it would be with the intention to call a shove. I don't really like b/f after putting in over 40% of my stack with a hand that's still live. Otherwise, I'm starting to feel like c/c is best.

He open-limped the BTN. Calling him a TAG means you probably don't use the same definition that I would for TAG.

All of you saying bet/fold, and especially you fools saying b/f like $100 (or less):

OH MY ****ING GOD IF YOU HATE MONEY THAT MUCH JUST SEND IT TO ME.