Villain has played extremely tight preflop, maybe playing 6 or 7 hands in 3 hours. I have seen him cbet when he does raise. He recently double barreled me with just under half pot bets on a Qs7d6hJs and folded to my turn raise. Villain is very stoic and quiet, I have an inkling he does not tilt, but it is hard to say for certain.
Villain ($1700) opens from UTG+1 to $25. This is bigger than his late position raises which are usually to $15 if there are no limpers. 2 callers from mid positions and Hero ($1200) completes with 5h5c.
At this point in my mind his range is really narrow. AQ, AdKd, AA, QQ (let me know if you disagree). The problem facing me is I think he folds AdKd to a shove and maybe AQ as well. If I bet 1/2 pot I may get value from those hands but will have to call a shove. He has 10 combos I beat, let's say he folds those to a jam 50%, 6 combos of sets beat me and I lose my stack. It almost seems like there is not a good play on the river.
What is your river line and should I have played any of the earlier streets differently?
I don't think you can edit the OP once you've received replies.
Ugly spot. Is villain capable of raising worse hands than yours? If not, I actually don't hate betting something like $350. Makes a call from AKdd more likely, and a call from AQ a virtual certainty.
Hard to believe he doesn't 3-bet flop w QQ. Harder to believe he doesn't raise turn with QQ/AA/AQ. I think Axdd is likely holding. Based on your line he won't raise a pair of aces on the river. Based on his image I think you can bet relatively small OTR (like 350) and hope to get a crying call from AK/AQ/AJ.
My only dilemma is what to do if he shoves. My instinct is that he never bluff raises so b/f seems right but this contradicts my reads from earlier streets (ie I've discounted hands that beat us based on previous action).
