Quote:
Originally Posted by TheStuntman
Alright I have 44 on the SB, OR/UTG is a lagtard maniac who bets out hard with gut shots and draws and running very hot and build up his stack to 1100.
UTG raises to 15, 5 callers, I call, BB completes.
flop comes 4 9 8 hh. With the 4 and 9 as the hearts.
If you shove, then Villain has to call around 500 to win 1125 (75 + 230 + 735 + 85), so you might get a call from a A
K
hand. But does he call your shove with an overpair? What's your image? Is Villain such lagtard that your image and pot-odds are irrelevant?
Just a call is not out of the question here, with a plan to donk turn (1/3 pot), so you can set-up an easy river shove. Also, if you just flat, maniac may overshove with an overpair, since he may put you on the flush/straight draw (maniacs can over-protect big hands sometimes).
This really comes down to ranging this Villain properly, especially as sometimes we believe "maniacs" play so wide that we can't range them whatsoever. How often is he drawing when potting the flop? Have you seen him play an overpair hand that got to showdown? How does he play overcards on these boards?
I'm not fully convinced that shoving flop is the best way of getting maximum value for your hand here. I mean, shoving
could be the best line, but I think other lines need to be considered.