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/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF /5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF

05-08-2011 , 06:24 PM
Villain 1: I only played with him for about an hour, but he seemed pretty fishy. He bought in for $250 and doubled up recently when he got it all in PF w/AA.
Villain 2: Solid player (for live). He could be tricky, was capable of bluffing big.
Villain 3: aggro-fish. I just beat him in a $900 pot when I called his bluff w/Ace high OTR (brag). He was pretty steaming, told me I was on his list.
Hero's image: tight/nitty


$3/5 NL (9 handed)
SB Hero ($900)
BB V1 ($480)
MP V2 ($900)
BU V3 ($1500)


Hero is dealt A4
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, V2 calls, 2 folds, V3 calls, Hero completes, V1 checks

Flop ($25) KQT
Hero checks, V1 bets $25, UTG +2 folds, V2 calls, V3 raises to $85, Hero?

Last edited by meshanti; 05-08-2011 at 06:31 PM.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 06:28 PM
confused... you checked flop right? I would have led the flop.

as played I would fold since we have nothing invested in the pot.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug_Funnie
confused... you checked flop right?
Yes, fixed it.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 07:04 PM
I just call here.

An issue here is large # of villains. If we call and get V1 and V2 to call we're getting great odds. If we call and V1 and/or V2 shove-reraise (I assume V3 has a big hand and calls/shoves of V1,V2) we also get great odds.

This was limped preflop so I don't put anyone on a set here. 2 pair/straights/combo pair-straightdraw or pair-flushdraws are what we're up against. So I think we have ~10 outs here (9 hearts plus ~1 jack as prob 2 villains have a jack here). Also someone may have nut straight already so even if we hit a J we may have a split pot.

I like to have a plan for turn ahead of time but to be honest I don't. It depends on # villains in hand on turn.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 08:12 PM
Hard to see V3 with A/J, since he limped on the button. It's hard to say what villains could have given this is a limped pot, but I can see a lot of random Jx betting/calling or another flush draw, and V3 sitting on a pair with straight draw, like Q/J, 10/J, or K/J.

I don't know what hero's commitment level is to play for stack, and OOP is hard to extract value for draws.

I am leaning toward 3-betting to $300, and shipping the rest on the turn...

I can't see villain showing up with much here, and we can rep A/J 3-betting from SB.

I might also be more conservative and just flat to see what the other 2 villains are doing, and re-evaluate on turn like crsseyed has suggested.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug_Funnie
confused... you checked flop right? I would have led the flop.

as played I would fold since we have nothing invested in the pot.






ahhhh no.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 09:01 PM
This is an interesting hand.

I think I can just find a fold. If I were button Im pretty sure I could find a call.

This basically sucks from this spot. Getting it in on flop wont be great especially since no dead money preflop to work with. If we brick the turn we must check fold.

Nah, sure looks pretty but I pass.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug_Funnie
confused... you checked flop right? I would have led the flop.

as played I would fold since we have nothing invested in the pot.
Lead the flop why and for how much?

Just curious?
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 10:04 PM
I’ve seen this kind of hand play out quite a bit, I think the most profitable play is to check / call until all the chips are in the middle unless by some miracle you don’t manage to get 3:1 on your money to make a call

***THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT VARIANCE OR RAKE****

You have a 37.89% chance to hit your flush (9/48+9/47)
Meaning if you get 3:1 odds on your money by the 100th hand played all in on the flop vs 3 people would look something like this without variance.

Pot = 2700 (900 x 3)

amt paid = 55899 ( 62.11 x 900)

amt won = 102303 (37.89 x 2700)

***profit = 46404****

This play after 100 hands has an ROI of ~83%

Don’t get mad at me it might help someone understand to see it this way.
(and if its wrong let me know because I view some hands in this way)
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
[/B]





ahhhh no.
sorry. $5.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Way
Lead the flop why and for how much?

Just curious?
we have a good drawing hand to the nuts. I'd rather lead for full pot to try to take it down on the flop, check/call $25 is fine too if you want to be more passive. i prefer leading.

as played, we're facing an $85 bet with only $5 invested... i let it go being, OOP sucks.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 11:23 PM
Just fold. You have nothing invested and 9 outs to the win, probably 2-3 chop outs. You also risk v1 repopping and getting all in on the flop which I guess isn't horrible if it goes in 3 handed. You would have the odds, but it's high variance. I prefer to just let it go.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-08-2011 , 11:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug_Funnie
sorry. $5.

The fact that "we" have not invested much is not a factor. Ever. The pot size is. (No matter who put the money in the pot)

I was simply clearing up your statement about it.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-09-2011 , 02:19 AM
I'd call. I think v3 is paying us off if we make our flush given the dynamic.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote
05-09-2011 , 10:14 AM
Very interesting hand... one thing to consider is that when you check this flop and flat the 3-bet in a limped in pot, doesn't that look exactly like an Ad,xd? (or atleast a flush draw w/suited connectors) So do you really expect someone to stackoff on this board texture?
OOP i'd probrably raise or fold, yet calling is close depending on weather you think villian will stack off when you catch.
/5 Combo draw facing heat OOP OTF Quote

      
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