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3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? 3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway?

08-09-2022 , 08:10 PM
Effective stacks $565

Hero in CO with JT

UTG straddles to $10, two limpers from MP, Hero raises to $55, SB flats, BB folds, straddler folds, one limper calls. Three ways to the flop.

Flop ($190): Q96

V1 checks, V2 checks, Hero bets $110, V1 calls, V2 calls

Turn ($520): 5

V1 checks, V2 checks, Hero checks

River ($520): 4

V1 checks, V2 checks, Hero ??
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-09-2022 , 08:18 PM
As played, I don't know what you represent. Any thinking player is going to call with a pair.

I'd bet smaller on the flop. Maybe $75.

Not following up on the turn is weak. You have to fire another barrel if you're going to play this hand.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 02:55 AM
Any reads on your Vs?

Question is jam 400 ott or not, river is a giveup after checking turn
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 06:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yablebab
Bluff River Multiway?
At live low-stakes Hold'em: No, never.

(Particularly here, as your check-back on the Turn severely caps your range.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koko the Munkey
I'd bet smaller on the flop. Maybe $75.
No, this is not a board to bet small on. He should be betting a very small portion of his range, but betting it BIG, to give poor odds to drawing hands. Different story if it's a Q72r flop or whatever, then he can bet small. But a connected board like this, small-C-bet just isn't a thing. (Even his $110 bet here is too small, if he decides to go for it--and to be clear, I would only be going for it with JT of spades. He should be betting near- or over- pot.)
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 09:59 AM
Before reading post: Multiway you should have few bluffs and need a particularly favorable situation.

After reading post, this is a terrible situation for a bluff. Your representing nothing on river. 87 got there on turn and would have bet such a dangerous board, nothing else hit unless you backed into something stupid. A bluff will work occasionally when V2 was on a draw also and missed but it's blind luck.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 11:18 AM
Let's first consider our river bet sizing. We have 400 left and the pot is 520.
I think there are two options, option 1) bet around 25% pot (130) with strong mid pairs+
(bottom is K9s?), option 2) bet ai for 400 with at least top pair (bottom is Q8s?).

A high stakes god would certainly argue for option 1, however, most players would stick
with option 2, and I am doing so as well.

Next, what's our value range? it's very thin of course, but lets try.
- 44's w/ a club: 2 combos
- 54cc/54ss: 2 combos
- some slowplays w/ QQ: 2 out of 3 combos maybe
- QJs / QTs / Q8s: total 3*3 = 9 combos
- QJo: 9 combos
Thats 25 combos in total. You could certainly argue for some more or less, but as a rough
guideline 25 is fine. Our value range targets calls by single pair 9x and weaker. I am
sure that Qx and stronger would have jamed the river by themself.

Next, how many bluffs do we need to be balanced? against one opponent our jaming range
should consists of 30% bluffs and 70% value. I am not sure how these numbers change vs
multiple opponents, can someone help? I assume these numbers hold, then we need around
25 * 0,3/0,7 = 10 bluff combos. What are our best bluff candidates? definitely nothing
w/ a club or spade, since these hands should be folded by our opponents. we want to
block reasonable bluffcatchers like QJ/QT/Q8 or A9/K9/J9/T9/... I dont know, but I think
JTdd makes a good bluff based on this perspective/argumentation. J8s or T8s would also
make sense, imo. The non club combos make up 9 combos, so they fit pretty nicely to our
plan of 10 bluff combos.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenji
Next, what's our value range? it's very thin of course, but lets try.
- 44's w/ a club: 2 combos
- 54cc/54ss: 2 combos
- some slowplays w/ QQ: 2 out of 3 combos maybe
- QJs / QTs / Q8s: total 3*3 = 9 combos
- QJo: 9 combos

(...)
Next, how many bluffs do we need to be balanced? against one opponent our jaming range
should consists of 30% bluffs and 70% value.
For the latter to be true, we need to win 100% of the time with our value hands when called. For any of the 18 Qx combos you list, there's a good chance they lose at showdown though.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 12:50 PM
Are you the $565 eff stack? If so jam the flop and take it down then, that's where you're supposed to bluff, not otr multi way when they all know it's the last bet to come and can't fold a queen
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 02:57 PM
Even only Betting 200 on the turn will commit us when being shoved on, no? So I donÂ’t see how betting the turn is that good of an idea, in fact it might be the worst street to try to (semi)bluff because both players already invested 30% of their effective stacks and I donÂ’t know how much fold equity we have against 2. Taking the free card makes more sense to me. And who knows J or T might give us a winner too.

If you checked river behind, I like how you played it. River jam (as played until then) only makes sense against bad players because you are repping little.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
Are you the $565 eff stack? If so jam the flop and take it down then
You want to shove $510 into a $190 pot?
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
You want to shove $510 into a $190 pot?
If I started the hand with 56 BB's, flopped an OESD and likely have FE then yes in a heart beat
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-10-2022 , 05:29 PM
Flop is a check multiway at this stack depth
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-11-2022 , 04:01 PM
check flop

i dont understand raising pre either
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-11-2022 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenji
Let's first consider our river bet sizing. We have 400 left and the pot is 520.
I think there are two options, option 1) bet around 25% pot (130) with strong mid pairs+
(bottom is K9s?), option 2) bet ai for 400 with at least top pair (bottom is Q8s?).

A high stakes god would certainly argue for option 1, however, most players would stick
with option 2, and I am doing so as well.

Next, what's our value range? it's very thin of course, but lets try.
- 44's w/ a club: 2 combos
- 54cc/54ss: 2 combos
- some slowplays w/ QQ: 2 out of 3 combos maybe
- QJs / QTs / Q8s: total 3*3 = 9 combos
- QJo: 9 combos
Thats 25 combos in total. You could certainly argue for some more or less, but as a rough
guideline 25 is fine. Our value range targets calls by single pair 9x and weaker. I am
sure that Qx and stronger would have jamed the river by themself.

Next, how many bluffs do we need to be balanced? against one opponent our jaming range
should consists of 30% bluffs and 70% value. I am not sure how these numbers change vs
multiple opponents, can someone help? I assume these numbers hold, then we need around
25 * 0,3/0,7 = 10 bluff combos. What are our best bluff candidates? definitely nothing
w/ a club or spade, since these hands should be folded by our opponents. we want to
block reasonable bluffcatchers like QJ/QT/Q8 or A9/K9/J9/T9/... I dont know, but I think
JTdd makes a good bluff based on this perspective/argumentation. J8s or T8s would also
make sense, imo. The non club combos make up 9 combos, so they fit pretty nicely to our
plan of 10 bluff combos.

I agree with your analysis that this has to be one of the best bluff combos because we have no showdown value, we don't block the busted draws, and we do block the bluff catchers. I would expect to get called by any Q, some strong 9x, and for busted draws and any worse pairs to fold. In the end I went for it and SB called with 76ss, which I thought was insane.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-11-2022 , 11:54 PM
im changing my answer

preflop is fine in position but i think you have to be willing to barrel multiple streets on boards like this.

given you raised pre, flop bet is fine

and after this action and this turn brick, i jam turn. i dont see how this isnt profitable almost all the time. your opponents ranges are maxed out at med top pairs and draws as flopped sets usually dont slowplay on boards like this. how would you feel holding KQ vs. $400 turn bet? when you jam turn it looks like you have AA or KK and are scared of the river card drawing out on you.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-12-2022 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yablebab
I agree with your analysis that this has to be one of the best bluff combos because we have no showdown value, we don't block the busted draws, and we do block the bluff catchers. I would expect to get called by any Q, some strong 9x, and for busted draws and any worse pairs to fold. In the end I went for it and SB called with 76ss, which I thought was insane.
Not that bad at all, since he unblocks our bluffing range. His line speaks to the fact that he is overcalling. With that in mind I would start underbluffing vs him. This scenario also shows that relativ strong Qx should be inclucded in our river betting range. I think that their ranges are very capped after checking twice with less than pot left.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-12-2022 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yablebab
I agree with your analysis that this has to be one of the best bluff combos because we have no showdown value, we don't block the busted draws, and we do block the bluff catchers. I would expect to get called by any Q, some strong 9x, and for busted draws and any worse pairs to fold. In the end I went for it and SB called with 76ss, which I thought was insane.
I actually think that’s a very good hand for SB to bluff-catch with. It’s certainly better than calling with QxJc, for instance—with 67s he’s not blocking any of your bluff hands (KJ, KT, JT, clubs) while also having a blocker to the nut straight.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-12-2022 , 02:10 PM
My thought from the title was, nope, don't bluff. I don't need to see the details, just don't bluff multiway live, low stakes, pretty much full stop.

And here is probably no exception, I mean you'll be sick when the guy turns over a king high flush draw but you'd need them to both be on flush draws for them to fold the river.

A $200 bet gives you great odds and I can see the argument for bluffing small ish here. We are trying to fold out anything below a queen for a cheap price. It's not a terrible spot for a bluff at all. Everyone saying you showed weakness on the turn, that's true, but you've still bet 2 streets and they have led at none. Very unlikely anyone is waiting with a check raise on the river. They are weak here.

And by betting $200 you can get called a fair amount and still show a profit. BUT, and like J Lo this a huge but, the generic opponent is too loose passive. That is their weakness, and bluffing turns their weakness into their strength.

I just fold this without history/reads/trying to create an image.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote
08-12-2022 , 03:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yablebab
I agree with your analysis that this has to be one of the best bluff combos because we have no showdown value, we don't block the busted draws, and we do block the bluff catchers. I would expect to get called by any Q, some strong 9x, and for busted draws and any worse pairs to fold. In the end I went for it and SB called with 76ss, which I thought was insane.
From a pure GTO math perspective that makes some sense that this would be an ok bluff. In practice it's a good example of why live poker is profitable and max profit isn't GTO.
A fairly common sticky rec player calls on the flop with 76 since he has a pair and could improve a couple of ways. He hasn't studied or played poker enough to realize his bottom pair is very weak and vulnerable on this board. He doesn't understand that backing into a straight or catching two pair could easily be dirty. Once he gets to river he has a pair and nobody has been playing like they have a strong hand and lots of draws missed so he calls.
3/5/10 Bluff River Multiway? Quote

      
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