2nd nuts.... raise river???? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2nd nuts.... raise river????

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02-19-2012 , 02:34 AM

vaz1981

adept

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,190

Villain is fairly new to the table. This is the first hand I'm involved with him. He's played a couple hands earlier, but seemed like a pretty weak/passive player overall imo. Do I play for villain's stack or flat here? Whats the +EV play?

7 handed

Hero = UTG+1, K9

, ~$335

UTG (~400) call, hero raises to 10, 2 folds, BTN (~220) calls, SB folds, BB (~260) calls, UTG calls

Pot = 41

Flop = J

2 checks, hero bets 25, BTN folds, BB calls, UTG folds

Pot = 91
Turn = Q

Check, hero bets 55, BB calls

River = 6

BB bets 80, hero ????

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02-19-2012 , 02:41 AM

SeaUlater

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Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 4,797

$281 in pot, $80 to call, and $225 behind.

No room for raise/fold. Need more read to just call.

Shove.

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02-19-2012 , 02:52 AM

captZEEbo

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ship

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02-19-2012 , 03:10 AM

vaz1981

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Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,190

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeaUlater

$281 in pot, $80 to call, and $225 behind.

No room for raise/fold. Need more read to just call.

Shove.

Is villain calling a shove with anything but a flush? And if he does have a flush, how many low flushes is this type of villain folding, regardless of equity/PO? With that being said, is it really +EV to shove (I'm not against it, just wondering)

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02-19-2012 , 03:41 AM

wake_up

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 730

Not going all in here is really really bad.

Having said that, fold pre

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02-19-2012 , 04:17 AM

HollywoodHogan

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,091

hmm a lot of his most likely, more connected spades are blocked by the J,9, and K meanwhile every suited A

is still possible, so that makes me think it's more likely the nut flush. His sizing isn't bluffy either, but it could be a blocker bet... It wouldn't make sense for him to lead anything worse here, but it's lol_livepoker and you have the 2nd nuts and aren't really deep so a shove is fine most likely. He bet out almost half his stack, pretty f'in valuey; the only question is, is he bad enough to donk/call hands that are a lot worse than yours.

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02-19-2012 , 09:27 PM

2OutsNoProb

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I think you've got to shove here. QsTs, Ts8s, 8s7s are all hands that could call, you're not up against the nut flush often enough here IMO to lose out on the value from a shove.

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02-19-2012 , 10:59 PM

mpethybridge

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Interesting hand. He has 8 combos of suited aces:

AQ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A4, A3, A2

He has 7 combos of reasonable suited connectors:

QT, Q9, T9, T8, 98, 97, 87

If you leave it right there, this is a call, not a shove. If we shove, most of the time we are called, it is by a hand that beats us.

In order for this to be a shove, we need him to have some silly flushes in his range, or to not be able to fold two pair or a set or stuff like that.

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02-19-2012 , 11:02 PM

2OutsNoProb

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I would think when the size of the pot is taken into consideration, most random unknown Villains aren't folding a Q hi or T hi flush to a shove, and for $10 preflop your average 1/2 player can easily have silly flushes in their range.

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02-19-2012 , 11:35 PM

#10

mpethybridge

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

Yeah, I also wouldn't put it past a bad player to be blocking with top two and then sigh and call.

I think this is a shove, but I think it's pretty close, and we need to expect to value own ourselves a fair amount of the time.

I opened the thread thinking "<yawn> standard shove" just based on the thread title. Then I saw the comment above that said the jack blocks a lot of his reasonable suited connectors, and that got me interested enough to do a quick count of his possible flushes, and was surprised that he actually has more nut flush combos than reasonable suited connecting combos.

(So WP to HollywoodHogan who made that comment).

Last edited by mpethybridge; 02-20-2012 at 12:00 AM.

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02-19-2012 , 11:39 PM

#11

SeaUlater

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Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 4,797

Plus Q-high is probably shoving the turn.

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02-20-2012 , 12:23 AM

#12

kenji08

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,360

dont see how this is even a question jam all day. he calls with worse flushes, sets, tp, 2pr all kinds of stuff. and i would just snap jam make him make a quick decision, ppl do it alot when u snap it in there.

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02-20-2012 , 12:31 AM

#13

mpethybridge

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kenji08

god, posts like this tilt the living **** out of me.

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02-20-2012 , 01:29 AM

#14

kenji08

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,360

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpethybridge

god, posts like this tilt the living **** out of me.

im sorry that me posting affects you that much. why exactly is it so tilting? seems like a straightforward hand to me

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02-20-2012 , 01:49 AM

#15

fun101

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,237

seems like a shove given the amount u have left. I dont think its a super obvious shove tho I just think u r ahead of more than 50% shove calling range so its +EV.

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02-20-2012 , 02:14 AM

#16

BrandNewSecondHand

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Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 58

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpethybridge

god, posts like this tilt the living **** out of me.

?
Condescending posts like this tilt the f**k out of me.
CaptZ just posted ship, you not mad about that?
The brevity of these posts imply the obviousness of the situation perhaps?
Zeebos a boss btw.

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02-20-2012 , 08:38 PM

#17

2OutsNoProb

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To be honest it is a pretty straightforward hand, we're shoving every time here, and the hand shouldn't be in the preflop playbook if we can't shove for these stack sizes on this board.

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02-20-2012 , 11:06 PM

#18

Sebastes Pinneger

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Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 721

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaz1981

7 handed

Hero = UTG+1, K9

, ~$335

UTG (~400) call, hero raises to 10, 2 folds, BTN (~220) calls, SB folds, BB (~260) calls, UTG calls

Surprised it has not be mentioned yet so let me be the first.

K9s UTG+1 is not a raising hand.

2Outs comment about the pre-flop playbook got me curious how we find ourselves here. Like 2Outs said if we are gonna play it, play it.

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02-21-2012 , 02:00 AM

#19

SeaUlater

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Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 4,797

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sebastes Pinneger

2Outs comment about the pre-flop playbook got me curious how we find ourselves here. Like 2Outs said if we are gonna play it, play it.

"If we play 32s and flop a flush, we should always stack off else we shouldn't play it."

That is one of the most flawed thinking in poker.

We play a hand because the condition at the time is right, but if condition changes, we should simply evaluate, but not committed, because of our previous action.

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02-21-2012 , 03:11 AM

#20

Sebastes Pinneger

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SeaUlater

3 high Flush and K high Flush are vastly different, reasons are obvious.

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02-21-2012 , 03:53 AM

#21

Sebastes Pinneger

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Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 721

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeaUlater

We play a hand because the condition at the time is right, but if condition changes, we should simply evaluate, but not committed, because of our previous action.

By the way, I find Hero's play with K9s UTG+1 unfavorable at the time, but the conditions have changed and we find ourselves with the second nuts on the River.

I have re-evaluated and committed.

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