White male around 28 years old, looked like a solid player although he did some calls i didn't agree with.Got stacked 1-2 hours ago vs a roullete player and he was steaming a bit, havent played with him again and im a reg in that casino.
$2.00 / $5.00
Stacks:
MP1: $315.00
MP2: $725.00(vil)
Hero OTB: $825.00 with Kd9d

PREFLOP
MP1 calls $5.00
MP2 calls $5.00
OTB raises to $25.00
MP1 calls $20.00
MP2 calls $20.00
Pot is $82.00

FLOP:4d8dQs
MP1 checks
MP2 checks
OTB bets $45.00
MP1 folds
MP2 calls $45.00
Pot is $172.00

TURN: 4d8dQsJd

MP2 checks
OTB bets $60.00
MP2 raises to $140.00
OTB calls $80.00
Pot is $452.00

RIVER: 4d8dQsJd2s

MP2 bets $210.00
Pot is $662.00

SHOWDOWN-HAND ANALYSIS-QUESTIONS

Don't post results. It'll bias the responses. Edit your post if still possible?

Anyway, by my math he has $525 going into the river, so $315 after his bet. A shove is barely more than a minraise and is really the only reasonable option. He'll call with any flush and maybe sets, QJ, or T9 if he calls your flop bet with that. Speaking of which, your flop bet was a little on the small side, but only slightly. As for your other questions, if he had open-shoved river, yes I would call. If he checks river, I guess overbet shoving is an option if you think he'd call that (depends on your dynamic with him), but he's unlikely to have a flush if he checked river and might be hesitant to call a shove without one, so I would value bet for like $250-300 and hope for a crying call from some non-flush hand.

By the way, thank you for a very clear and well-formatted hand history with stack sizes, pot sizes on every street, and players labeled by position. Other OPs should use this as an example of how to post a HH (but without the results obviously).

Please don't ever show results, they always influence action. If you could, PM a mod to remove your results.

As described, I'm never folding 2nd nuts in this spot vs a steaming villain.

Hell, even if villain isn't steaming, folding here is incorrect. No way you can get off that river. If he has it, he has it.

Or put another way, way too many villains will stack off here with Qdxd hands for us to ever think about folding 2nd nuts.

The only real question here imo is if we are raising river and if we raise can we ever raise/fold???

And I'm thinking we can't raise/fold because too many players at this level will jam with lesser flushes. Not to mention that he doesn't have all that much left behind so a raise really puts him all in and there is no way in hell he's folding a lesser flush like ever.

As sick as it sounds, I put him all in on this river and if he has it, he has it

I'm ok with everything so far. The question is will he do that with worse. Since you don't know him too well it's tough. You gotta at least call. I think the key is that IF he does it with a straight or worse flush then there's no way he'll fold if you shove. I'd base it on what hands I'd seen him show down and I he'd pushed draws/ been aggressive before. A lot if the time I'd shove and expect to lose to the nuts.

(Having not read the spoiler, like a good boy )

His turn raise is lol small, barely more than a min-raise. I'd re-raise here, bump it to say $350-400.

Of course, this commits us, but with a non-paired board, I'm ok committing here every time. If he has AXdd, "Dat's pokah, Baby", as Scotty says.

Even knowing the results I would still shove the river. Your getting looked up by lower flushes and sets more often than your behind. So it's definetly EV+. Also another way to look at it is your calling PF with K9 suited and you get the best possible result which is 2nd nut flush, so it's not even a question we are getting our money in. Maybe if we have a really good read on our opponent and stacks are deeper we can consider not shoving the river. But, could I ever fold if I raise the river, and villain shoves. Maybe if it were an over 200BB river shove on top of my raise. But, I would have to think about it for a while.

Results, even in the spoiler, bias answers. That said these were my unbiased thoughts.

He played this exactly like a flush, I mean exactly. You have blockers to all reasonable connectors for a flush either in your hand or on the board. This smells of A high flush really bad. I mean what, we put him exactly on 67? I sigh call...but really if we're calling here we should probably be shoving.

Against a lot of spewy villains or a calling station I jam for value all day. But this is a very straightforward line taken by villain.

Blockers are a really important factor in this hand IMO. When I read the title I said never...when I read the HH I think folding really isn't terrible.

bet more on every street. Especially the turn $60 into $172 is way way to small. Your losing to much value here. call the river

Imo, a better question is:

How many 2/5nl players would ever fold a lesser flush to our river jam?

Based on my experience and my player pool to include the so-called "solid" players, less than 10% are folding a lesser flush to include baby flushes. Seriously guys, way too many players are biologically incapable of folding big hands. Including players that are so-called "solid"

Last night I had this hand happened and its applicable to this thread.

We are six handed, 2/5nl eff stacks $600, villain covers me.
Villain raises $25 from the BTN, I call from the BB with KsTs

Flop(50) As 3s 9h
I chk, V bets $30, I raise to $75, V calls

Turn(200) 5s
I lead out $150, V calls

River(500)
I shove all-in for $400, V tanks forever and starts up with the poker chatter and shows the AQ and says, "You not scared of the Ace? I got a big hand. Do you really have the flush? Would you really bet it so hard???" and after 3 minutes of just stewing in his own juices he says, "Well, if you got it you got it I call"

I think we 2+2ers severely overestimate our villain's propensity to fold what they consider big hands.

There are just wayyyy too many villains that are never folding lesser flushes on this river. They will say, "Man, you got the nuts huh, this is so sick, I can't believe you got the nuts, okay nice hand, donation, whatever, F*** it, I call!!!!"

happens all the time, so much so I had to create a thread about it.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...downs-1298668/

Grunch - re-raise turn and call a shove. Another diamond on the river kills the action from anything less than the nuts and the only flush V's might fold here would be a baby flush if they can't take the heat. Nut flush vs second nut flush is just a cooler, sorry if you lost. Didn't read results.

i haven't read results either but based on my experience the c/c c/r bet line is super strong, although some V's might take this line w/a lesser flush. i think your decision here is mostly situational based on your read & history w/this particular V. as played i prolly shove & expect V to have the nuts a decent amount of the time.

This kind of becomes a simple math question.

Assuming the only hands he takes this line with are flushes.

The hands that beat you are
Atd a9d a7d a6d a5d a3d a2d....thats 7 combinations..

The other likely flushes in his hand that limp call preflop are
QdTd Qd9d T9d 97d 76d 65d....reasonable estimate...given your discription...that 6 combination

So shoving over his bet on the river makes no sense...you need when called at least 50% combinations and you don't have it..


Not calling makes no sense...you only need 25% equity or something and even if you discount a few of his flush hands you easily have that....

If he shoves its closer (it depends on how much you discount his weaker flush combos and maybe add a bit to his bluffs.) My guess is its a hold my nose and call...though it might be a beat him to the pot and call.

Haven't read spoiler, but this is definitely wrong. Hero has 9d, so reasonable lower flushes drop significantly.

QdTd, 7d6d, 6d5d are about it, with Td7d a lesser possibility.

Compare that to:

AdTd, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d, which ignores the possibility of a slow-played AdQd

To me this is a clear call based on pot odds and the weird small c/r ott. Do you ever see steaming opponents min-check-raise baby flushes ott? Mostly I see them trying to bet as big as possible to avoid getting sucked out on by the Ad.

A case can be made for shoving, since he will be hard-pressed to fold a flush getting around $300:$1000 by my rough math, but I think the turn min-check-raise strongly weights his range towards hands that are trying to string you along.

OOPs, your correct missed the 9d. But then shoving does not even get close. for a shove to be correct you have to have greater then 50% combinations that beat him, and given your numbers you are no where even close.

You can make a case that V has 'only' Ad on Turn, but when he leads out on River we probably need to just 'sigh' call and live with the results. IME I dont really see the Qd flushes calling a shove on the River since it is 'only' the 3rd nuts, but that could just be my player pool. If you wanted to take on the Qd flush, then you should have done it on the Turn. People tend to watch their chips better once the River comes out and they have no more hope to improve.

I think you did very well to 'see' the signs of a possible higher flush here and lost the minimum. If V has a set/QJ I would expect more c/c on River than leading out with the possibility of having to fold to a raise. GL

Raise the river. I lost similar hand last night. (Twice!!!!!!!)....you will get called by worse way more often than the nuts

Some really bad math going on in here.

I notice a common problem among 2+2ers in that we can't help but be biased by what we would do or how we would play...

First off, you can put every single flush draw in villain's range because rec-fish and especially steaming rec-fish play any two suited cards because its SSSSOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTEEEEEDDDDDDDDD

Secondly, you can throw in 2 pair combos and straights and even a set or two

You can even throw in spewtarded AQx hands

basically, when we shove in spots like this, you'd be amazed what ends up calling us down.

This is a bit of a Catch-22, if you aren't shoving in spots like this then you don't know what crap villains will call you down with.

DUCY????

If you aren't shoving in these spots with second nuts, you are leaving all sorts of money on the table.

I never said those were the only combos available, just that the only reasonable combos for a player who "looks solid" and has been felted, only to re-build his stack to 100+bb (seems like maybe he's not a complete drooler). I mean, hero's line looks extremely strong here if he shoves river. We can get in just as much trouble assuming players are brain-dead as we can assuming they are competent.

I shove here in my game, given that I usually have a maniac image and will get snap-called by 2pair, etc. Also, when I play in home games with a small player pool, it is important that I shove here to strengthen my river-shoving range. We have no info about hero's image, and it's possible that it doesn't matter to steaming villain.

As I said, I agree that we can make a case for shoving. The title of this thread is "...Can i fold?". My answer is an emphatic "NO!" Whether shoving>calling is a matter of a number of factors that we are not privy to IMO.

FWIW I agree people here (and in general) tend to project their thought processes on bad players too much.

^^^ This Is an issue in my play for sure. I try to play the player, but when I'm put in a tough spot, I will make the mistake of playing myself instead.