Quote:
Originally Posted by sneeringco
Game has a couple loose passives and I am on the card dead side forcing me to play pretty tightly for once ...
CO is squaring up to be a solid balanced player: some flop bluffraises and shut downs, some standard three barrels, lots of value towning the fish, nothing remarkable.
UTG ($10k)
MP ($7k)
CO ($18k)
BTN ($4k)
Heroine SB ($13k)
BB ($5k)
UTG limps $50, MP folds, CO raises to $200, BTN folds, I call $150 with 8 8 , BB calls $175, UTG calls $150
Flop ($800): 2 3 8
I check, BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $550, I call $550, BB folds, UTG folds
Turn ($1,900): T
I check, CO checks
River ($1,900): 9
I check, CO bets $1,000, I raise to $3,750, CO thinks for a couple minutes and to my surprisement ships all-in $12,250.
What . . .
Heroes range for the river c/r:
On one end of spectrum: A2, A3, 34, 78, A8s
On other end of spectrum: 32, 33, 22, 88, 89, 810
So if villain has a normal hand in this situation, JJ+, A9s at first it seemed to me a call is in order -- but you believe that we could conceivably fold our entire range here.
I'm going to say villains value range for a 3b is strictly 99 an 1010 (less often); however, if we do include that he can turn his entire range, which was a value range on the first river bet, into a 3b bluff, then i can see a call.
This is such an advanced move though.. yea were are at 25/50 but would you ever run this line with QQ on a random player? I don't see it happening idk..
EDIT: looking at the flop action more closely, I feel that we can discount the bad end of the spectrum of heroes range except A8 and 78, given she had 2 more players left to act after she called. Meaning there are now less hands villain folds out when he 3b "bluffs" the river. Making it less likely IMO