I've been pondering a hand that I played about a week ago and whether or not I made the right decision on the turn. Sadly, the mere fact that I am posting it will spoil the results, but I would like to know whether I played it right and got unlucky or played it badly.

Hero (BB): Late 20s, first time at this particular home game and don't really know anyone. Have been playing for 4 hours so far and folding a lot more than most of the other players in the game, which I've discovered usually gets me labeled as a tight player pretty quickly based on other games.

Villain (MP): Somewhere in his late-40s to early-50s. Not much of a read on him because he arrived late and had only been playing for an hour or so at this point.

Key Hand: About 20 minutes prior to this hand, the Villain had re-reraised a pot pre-flop from $20 to $60 with AA against the host of the game. My general impression of the villain based on this hand and other smaller hands was that he played was that he did not slowplay his hands, but I had a very small sample size to work with.

Game is 8-handed at this point, with $0.25/$0.50 blinds and the $1 straddle is on.

Player 1 (SB)
Hero (BB - $140): KK
Player 2 (Straddle)
Player 3
Villain (About $200)
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6 (Button)

This may not be exact, but I believe Player 3 called the straddle, Villain raised to $5 or $6, and everyone folded around to me.

Hero ($140): Raises to $20 ($14-$15 more). Figured it was about a pot-size bet. I had been raising a lot in the last 20 or so hand and was on a mini-rush, but this was my first or second re-raise preflop of the night.

Villain ($200): Calls $14-$15.

Flop ($42.25): 233
Hero ($120): Bets $30
Villain ($180): Calls $30

Turn ($102.25): 9
Hero ($90): What should the hero do now?

In an ideal world, we would bet an amount that our villain would raise if he had a flush but just call if he didn't. But with these stack sizes and us only having about a PSB left, it is going to bet say $50 and then fold to a raise.

I think I would bet about $40 here. We are going to be in a tough spot if he jams, but my plan would be to call it off as the pot is going to have $180 in it and it will be $50 more to call.

I think jamming here ourselves is a mistake unless we can make him fold out a hand like AA, which he is never going to have here. By just betting $40, we can still get called by JJ/TT/etc type hands in his range.

Nh...ul

His calling range should include a lot of pairs not just flushes (hard to say with no reads). Might bet 55 rather than shove but it doesn't matter

Ok, I just read your spoiler.

I would rather 3bet to $15 pre to keep in his range. As played shove turn and its not even close. You don't want a club to peel on river but more importantly you have the best hand almost always on the turn.

We dont shove turn simply for protection. We're shoving for value and protection is mainly a side benefit and we can't get bluffed if a club peels on river. We don't mind him folding a hand like 8x8c or TxTc which has a lot of equity. And we don't mind him callin with those hands either as he doesn't have correct odds.

18 combos of TT-QQ vs 3 combos of AJcc+. We have the best hand way too often to fold here

If he's always folding worse to a shove, then betting $40 to $50 is best. We're not paying him off if a club hits and we're assuming we're never getting bluffed on river. You don't have to price out his pair+FDs, he will have TT-QQ with no club a lot of the time too and we want to keep those hands in.