Nah... just a HH.. but hey really #2000


This hand was recently played in Lost Wages... I mean Las Vegas.

2/5 game

Hero $650 - Playing TAG. Will limp with small pairs and also limp SC's in LP if the situation is right. Mostly aggressive preflop. Can make some big bluffs post, but for the most part straight forward.
V1 ~ $525 - Venetian regular. Guy was solid tight, but not aggressive with his big hands. He often limped AK and saw him flat with QQ earlier.
V2 ~$600 - Fishy, stationy. Has bet weak hands and called with them to. He's in there splashing around.

Hero OTB with 44

UTG raises to $20 as he has been doing
MP calls
V1 (MP)calls
V2 (CO) calls
Hero calls

Flop ($107)

4 J Q rainbow

UTG checks
MP checks
V1 bets $20
V2 raises to $75
Hero calls - Raising or calling here? This can be discussed.
UTG folds
MP folds
V1 raises to $225
V2 calls
Hero?


What the heck is going on in this hand???

BTW... I DID NOT PLAY THIS HAND. A FRIEND OF MINE IS IN VEGAS RIGHT NOW AND THIS HAND HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. ITS A WEIRD SPOT IMO, WEIRD IN HOW EVERYTHING IS GOING DOWN.

i would flat basically hating it, but then be relieved that i could fold to the 3 bet.

And this IS a super rare weird crazy idiotic hand, but i would do it confidently and really not give a crap about any results.

I see you found the right person to get the post count.

Given the reads, lots of hands could be in V1/V2 that hero beats and not a lot of chance of JJ or QQ.

I flat both times, basically giving V1 another chance to bet into me. Shove the turn with the possible exception of a 10 on the turn.

If V1 flats QQ pre then he probably does the same with KK after UTG opens.



Board: 4h Js Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.555% 44.56% 00.00% 636492 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 40.786% 40.57% 00.22% 579516 3126.00 { KK-JJ, QJs }
Hand 2: 14.659% 14.44% 00.22% 206286 3126.00 { JJ+, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q4s, J4s, AQo, KQo, QJo }


Finally, I don't think it's impossible for V1 to hold TPTK once in a while if he doesn't respect V2 and thinks hero is drawing.

Am off the tables for the weekend, sick and hating it.

I fold to the pocket jacks.

I never fold here, even with the reads.

i'm raising the $75. i don't like the flat with 4 villains in. if v1 shoves i puke call

grats on 2k

totally thought this was going to be a well.

Don't fold

I need a better reads to fold this here. I probably flat the first $75 bet but after I see the $225 bet, looks like a good time to just shove over. Sorry if your friend got coolered.

A well. Lol. Im nobody bro. Just thought it would be funny.

This is more of another friend and I measuring epeens on what to do here. I said ez fold he said ez shove/call because of ranges. I am not so sure ranges apply here more so than "hey buddy your hand is face up."

Im sure many will hope for results to gloat or whatever, but as it should be i really dont care. Using the info. given is valuable, and many just dont do it. Again, i call the flop only to see what V1 does to V2s raise. Its so easy.

and you are right. At live poker esp these limits, the fishies hold up a sign telling you their exact holdings. Its like Viffer said. Online poker deals only with ranges. Live poker deals many times with putting a villain spot on one hand. The info. is there many times if you are willing to use it. Most dont figure they ever want to fold a set and ever in life come up wrong, so they never do it.

(Hero's hand is under-represented from V1's point of view...)

I would just call the $75 as hero did because I don't want anyone to fold. After V1 raises to $225 and V2 calls, I would shove. At that point everyone is committed.

I would almost every fold a set on that board for ~100BB without a sick read (which hero doesn't have).

Villains might show up with {JJ+, QJs, AQ}. Obviously V2's range is wider than V1's.

Certainly there are times when I would fold a set, but I would have to have more than 100BBs and I would need a sick read. Hero has neither.

I guess the thing to look at is the bet sizes. V1's small bet/large reraise has the mark of inconsistency, i.e. a trap that has been sprung. Without being at the table it certainly looks as if QQ/JJ/QJs is more likely than AA/KK/AQ, the latter group in the hands of a tight player would usually slow down to the raise and "see what develops," Although: he is out of position and your hand is underrepped (looks like it could be AQ/KQ/KT) so I would think AA and KK could confidently 3-bet that against a range of top pairs and possible draws.

In hero's spot, I like three-betting the flop so as not to give a cheap turn to AK (he has to call $55 to potentially win a stack or two, so I think he will) or risk getting slowed down on a 3rd broadway card. If we had then faced a 4-bet from V1 then the case for folding would be a bit stronger. Of course, you'd be closer to commitment, and generally we're 3bing to get stacks in (not to help find a fold!) so this is a tough balancing act.

Out of pure curiosity, when a villain who is A. a slowplayer and B. does something really spooky like bet out $20 in a 3 way pot which screams to get raised please, how many just dismiss this and how many take it seriously and decide they may be able to make heroic fantastic plays since villain went so far out of his way to be transparent?

IMO given reads that V1 is a passive/tricky player (if that sounds right) I dont feel good after he decides to lead small and then put a big chunk of his chips in the middle. Any time a passive/tricky player decides to do so you can almost guarantee he has you beat. They also seem to want to get the money in OTF as their "trickiness" can only go so far. Its the whole "I dont want to be greedy im fine with whats in the pot" deal aka scared because they only plan so far ahead.

Well, the only read we have is:

Actually this is so general that I'd say we are playing against an unknown.

I'd agree that the average regular at the V playing $2-5 is probably the typical slow-player/trapper/nit. But I'm still not ready to fold bottom set here.

If we were 200BB deep, I'd be convinced the V-reg wouldn't ship 200BB with less than the nuts. But we only have 100BB.

Why can't the V-reg have QJs? And, if he is a slow-player, why can't he have AA? (I mean it's obvious for us that there is an over-set here because of the post. I mean at the table.)

Given read on V2, I'm sure V1 doesn't think V2 is very strong. Hero has an under-represented hand from V1's point of view. For these reasons, I think V1 can show up with {AA, QJs}. The V-reg might even show up with {KK}.

As the hand history has been presented I am 100% certain hero lost to an over-set. But it would be results orientated for me to say fold.

Good players make a mistake bad players never due -- Sometimes they fold the best hand.

More importantly I'd say that I do not believe our edge is folding 44 on a board of 4QJr. Against 99.9% of players that is a zero-sum spot. So I don't see the need to make a hero fold that might be horribly wrong.

Also, I question the reads we have. V1 is a V-reg. How/Why do we know this?

I mean, we aren't playing rush-poker. Just because a reg went all in OTF doesn't mean he has a set.

this is interesting. v1 could fold (in which case we're obv looking to get it in with v2), but what is the plan if v1:

a) repops
b) overbet shoves
c) flats

@Princess Azula- Do I ever make obvious HH's? Theres usually something going to happen. Id say dont read into it just yet. As far as how we know this is a V reg... Hero goes to Vegas a ton and plays almost always at the V. Hero has played V before on a couple occasions.

i had this instinct as well. there are so many players i play against that i have a "solid tight" read on that i could never narrow their range in this spot to QJ, JJ, QQ. we would truly need a very good read. i'm not saying we don't have this read here for sure, but like you said earlier Princess, we would need a sick read. if hero in this hand believed he had that read then i guess we're folding.

also agree. folding bottom set ~100bb deep or less at 1/2 is almost always bad. i could definitely find a fold here more easily 200bb deep. still dependent on a sick read, though.

if we shove and v1 calls and v2 folds (for simplicity) our equity looks like this against three possible ranges for v1 (first is the narrowest, last is the widest and includes KK):

Board: Qs Jh 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.374% 51.37% 00.00% 7629 0.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 48.626% 48.63% 00.00% 7221 0.00 { QQ-JJ, QJs, QJo }


Board: Qs Jh 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.179% 62.18% 00.00% 12927 0.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 37.821% 37.82% 00.00% 7863 0.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, QJs, QJo }

Board: Qs Jh 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.823% 67.82% 00.00% 18129 0.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 32.177% 32.18% 00.00% 8601 0.00 { JJ+, QJs, QJo }

which means at worst, against he narrowest range, we're flipping with v1. if we range v2 such that he will fold, the move is already +EV due to dead money. if not, it's a bit more complicated but still +EV because we expect v2's range here to be weak.

if we put v1 on a wider range (incl. AA or AA/KK) we're clearly ahead.

unless, ANL do you think you could discern QQ/JJ from QJ based on v1's line here? that would change things, but i don't see how you could make that distinction at 200nl live. we have to factor QJ into v1's range IMO.

IN MY EXPERIENCE, players llike this view sets a lot different than top two. Sets are invincible and can redraw in their minds.

REPOP I FOLD
overbet i fold
flats i guess im down for the count

i see what you're getting at. there is a psychological difference. i think most 1/2 or 2/5 players are less complicated than this, though.

the problem is folding being the right play hinges on this read. if we are wrong about QJ being in his range, we are costing ourselves a good amount of $ by folding. and putting v1 on QQ/JJ but not QJ is a sick read to make. so unless we're super confident of that, i can't find a fold 100bb deep.

i also think flatting the $75 is the wrong move for some other reasons, though. with two players who can still act before v1 (the ones who checked flop) and v2 still in the hand, we are likely to have a a bit of a disaster playing the turn. there are so many scenarios where we flat, maybe UTG flats, v1 flats, and we're going 4-way to the turn. any T through A card sucks for us.

unless we're convinced v1 has us beat (which i am not), flatting flop here is basically slow-playing our set. on a coordinated board. with potentially 4 villains. this is a bad play IMO. we need to be raising this.

well, its not the worst thing that can happen is flatting the flop with players behind. I mean, its a pretty good sized bet so we wont have them taking off a free card for gutters etc.

Now though, we can drill it down as far as you want. Im quite positive that this ****** lilttle $20 bet isnt KK or AA. That may be just me, but i dont go for it.

Its either QQQ JJJ or QJ for top two. (i dont really buy into the QJ, but whatever).

Having said that, it is 6 combos of sets vs 4 combos of top two showing that there is 3/2 chance even still that we are cooked even if you buy into the top two scenario.

For me, it just doesnt get easier than this. Not only math, but tendencies, and silly transparent bets by villain, and on and on, i mean, if you cant fold a set here, then literally the line this forum must take with sets is NO FOLDING ever with a set. Thats it. We have seeen it so far in limped pots 100bb deep, we are seeing it now with a ton a info telling us exactly what villain holds, and its the same old story. Nobody wants to fold a set.

Far be it from me to try and convince this forum otherwise. But when my students ask me for a rundown on why i have the dominance and low variance in the games that i play, its pretty easy to run it down for them, since there are quite a few daily posters here that i know work hard, spend time stoving and discussing etc, but just simply cant break out of the mode of calling down with certain hands regardless of conditions. And funny thing is, sets seem to be a main culprit in this, as well as pocket KK and AK.

I would have made it ~$180 the first time around it came to me and I'm really not sure why you chose to call there instead. The CO grants you protection on your raise given his tendencies of being bad/a station. His prior investment will almost always tie him to this pot, at least on this street with whatever hand he decided to raise the UTG with initially. Accompany this with a raise size specifically targeting him to future streets and I don't really see where your other possible prospects can be superior.

On the flop you should always be happy to go broke. Once you allow for other unexpected actions to take place (just calling inviting unexpected aggression), you must be careful not to over compensate what initially is a strong plan (that being getting your money in on the flop). If you had raised to $180 and the UTG now shoves are you ever doubting going broke? You shouldn't.

By just calling the $75 you set up a very nice squeeze situation for the UTG who may recognize that the CO probably has a wide [enough] range of hands to make his raise, combined with your lack of aggression which he may now signify as weakness. And by weakness I mean a showdown seeking hand given stacks. You just aren't deep enough to need to mess around and get FPS in a multiway pot in order to eventually find commitment. Add to that the specific 2 broadway cards, allowing for numerous straight draws/over cards and the UTG may presume he can get you off of your hand, or better yet, may think he has a better hand himself and is taking you to town (think AA/KK).

When the dynamic is such where the weaker player is in the middle of a 3way battle, it can often set up some heightened/misguided meta game and thus more FPS/spazzing out. It is just too easy to lose sight of the best play when you get blinded by greed and the fantasy of stacking multiple players. It's easy to forget that most times you find yourself in a multiway all in situation, it was inevitable anyways. It's usually either 2 big hands and a guy making a move caught in the middle or 3 big hands justified to get money in (made hands or draws with pot odds).

Also, you probably had the best shot of stacking both players with an initial raise where both opponents may be more inclined to gamble (this is under the assumption that it unlikely the UTG reraises). Just flatting a raise is going to often slow future action down to a crawl barring someone spazzes or a cooler is dealt (which is of no concern to us). The fact that the UTG did however keep the action going just allows you to further facilitate your plan of getting stacks in now....so oblige.

If I were to take a guess, I'd say the UTG has AA/KK (obviously he will turn over QQ/JJ some portion of the time) and the CO has a hand like AQ or even KT.