Quote:
Originally Posted by Princess Azula
Actually this is so general that I'd say we are playing against an unknown.
i had this instinct as well. there are so many players i play against that i have a "solid tight" read on that i could never narrow their range in this spot to QJ, JJ, QQ. we would truly need a very good read. i'm not saying we don't have this read here for sure, but like you said earlier Princess, we would need a sick read. if hero in this hand believed he had that read then i guess we're folding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Princess Azula
If we were 200BB deep, I'd be convinced the V-reg wouldn't ship 200BB with less than the nuts. But we only have 100BB.
also agree. folding bottom set ~100bb deep or less at 1/2 is almost always bad. i could definitely find a fold here more easily 200bb deep. still dependent on a sick read, though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Princess Azula
Why can't the V-reg have QJs? And, if he is a slow-player, why can't he have AA? [...]
Given read on V2, I'm sure V1 doesn't think V2 is very strong. Hero has an under-represented hand from V1's point of view. For these reasons, I think V1 can show up with {AA, QJs}. The V-reg might even show up with {KK}.
if we shove and v1 calls and v2 folds (for simplicity) our equity looks like this against three possible ranges for v1 (first is the narrowest, last is the widest and includes KK):
Board: Qs Jh 4c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.374% 51.37% 00.00% 7629 0.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 48.626% 48.63% 00.00% 7221 0.00
{ QQ-JJ, QJs, QJo }
Board: Qs Jh 4c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.179% 62.18% 00.00% 12927 0.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 37.821% 37.82% 00.00% 7863 0.00
{ AA, QQ-JJ, QJs, QJo }
Board: Qs Jh 4c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.823% 67.82% 00.00% 18129 0.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 32.177% 32.18% 00.00% 8601 0.00
{ JJ+, QJs, QJo }
which means at worst, against he narrowest range, we're flipping with v1. if we range v2 such that he will fold, the move is already +EV due to dead money. if not, it's a bit more complicated but still +EV because we expect v2's range here to be weak.
if we put v1 on a wider range (incl. AA or AA/KK) we're clearly ahead.
unless, ANL do you think you could discern QQ/JJ from QJ based on v1's line here? that would change things, but i don't see how you could make that distinction at 200nl live. we have to factor QJ into v1's range IMO.