20-40 short handed.

game is playing 5 handed. villain in this hand is an armo that has been drinking pretty heavily. havent played w/ him before but he seems to be just having a good time. he's the reason why the game is running although he isn't as terrible as one might think just by looking at him (w/ his zegna shirt and patek).

i have almost 8k everyone has me covered. armo has about 9k, the rest have about 10k each.

he raises 140 utg, asian good player calls, very good maybe 40 yr old white guy calls on btn i have 33 and call in sb so we go 4 ways.

flop: J93r.

thought about leading out but armo seemed like he was already counting out chips to bet and seemed pretty excited so i diverted my plan to a c/r. armo thinks about it for a bit and checks (damn). asian guy and white guy both check which i thought was a bit odd for this type of flop.

turn: os8.

i lead out 400 now armo thinks for a little while and makes it 1300 everyone else folds. now he's definitely the type to overplay big pairs but i think this board is pretty scary for a turn raise for even the worst of whales if they hold AA/KK so i thought that a call and river lead would be best.

river: 8

i lead out 2200 and he pretty quickly makes it 6000.

Is he ever checking QQ+ on the flop?
Would he check his flopped sets?

Pretty gross but I can't see him raising turn & river with QQ+

I guess turning tens/AT into a bluff is a possibility but in my experience rec players rarely raise rivers without nuts

Can't see myself folding against a whale in this spot, although he might be the one player at the table that checks 99/JJ against three opponents on that board.

If so, he might also be able to overplay QTs on the river?! I'd call and expect to be good against some odd hands like AA/QT often enough to warrant that call.


Edit: quick stove:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.00% 50.00% 0.00% 33
MP3 50.00% 50.00% 0.00% JJ, 99, AdAs, AsAc, KdKs, QdQc, QTs, 98s


Even if his range crushes you way more than I'd expect, I still can't see how you would have less than 33% equity. The only thing that makes me suspicious is the fact that he looked confident on the flop, but then checked.

What's an armo? I check/call river. You might even be able to lay it down OTR to a bit bet (against some players).

i either c/c or c/r/f river in spots like this. b/f is better than b/c given the bet sizing.

pretty similar to http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...-w-hvc-141305/

Fold

maybe i havent played with him enough to know this. just imagine a typical rec player but better and you have villain.

didn't think he would overplay Q10 on this board when i call his big turn raise and lead out river when board pairs. usually rec players just snap call when the board pairs when they have the nuts on the turn that no longer is the nuts on the river. also, you really think he raises a river lead w/ an overpair?

i honestly dont see how ck/calling river in this hand is ever correct against described villain. they go to showdown wayyyyy too much if you give them the chance but also call rivers wayyyy too much if you give them the chance.

Agreed.
Also, weren't (were?) we planning on folding if raised OTR?

seems like an easy fold....also think b/f here is best

cmon man that stove is ridiculous

Against described villain I'm constructing a line that doesn't have "F" in it.

I think a fold is horrible here given you beat 7T, QT, 888, overpairs, and bluffs. $3800 into this pot against this player in this situation is absolutely a call. If he has JJ/99 (is he ever opening 89, 8J, 9J?), that's a terrible cooler. I think you played it about as optimally as possible provided you call river.

you really think he checks flop w some sort of jx, to raise turn and snap showdown riv when checked? i think his line is more polarized and would check/call riv

Jesus this. What is going on in this thread?

c/c is so far superior to b/f its absurd. Not because he is going to raise too often or anything, he probably won't, but because he's going to bet this river almost always if he's bluffing or if he has a value hand because it sounds like he's drunk and pretty aggressive. For most players in the game to "have fun" it's going to be a lot easier to bluff off 2k on a river bet than 6k on a river lead. He could easily have a hand like AT / Qx here OTT, it's a bad spot to bluff those hands since his line doesn't make much sense but we can't say he won't do that. Regardless I want to give him the opportunity to bluff cheaper here because I think he is bluffing a decent amount. On top of that we don't have to lose 6k when he actually has us beat with a c/c line.

As played I'm calling because I have a full house vs the guy the game is built around and I ****ed up the river so it's time to pay the piper.

^^

So if you think your behind his raising range otr your paying him off bc you misplayed a particular street? Not saying its not a b/c, but not based on that logic.

I mean, fact that he was gonna bet otf and decided to check makes his line look pretty nutted, unless he thought he was slow playing the nuts with QQ+ otf, but very unlikely he now plays turn and river like this even if he did decide to take a slower line with that range otf.

Or it looks like he wanted to induce a check from OP with 7T/QT and it worked...

True, but is he opening those hands from ep?

Also, the grab chips to induce a check is more common otr when V doesn't want to call a river bet with medium sd value.

Still possible in this sort of situation, but a little discounted.

Right, also whether he'd open J8/J9, his open range is the big variable here on each street.

As played its laughable that we don't think we're good here against described opponent >27% of the time. Are you guys all like screenwriters for James Bond?

Timing of the raise otr is interesting. Did he simply verbalize $6K?

Unless you have really good reads that he will only raise the nuts here, I'm calling he's just gonna have to many ******ed hands or overplayed hands to fold.

+1. I don't see how we can fold here. I mean, you said he was drinking heavily right? That alone would probably make me call even though the river raise is pretty gross. I just think there is too good a chance that he has the top str8 and thinks he is raising for value (i.e., he doesn't think the river card changed anything).

I also don't know what an "armo" is.