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!/2 Playing thin value limbo !/2 Playing thin value limbo

04-03-2014 , 08:28 PM
Hey guys! hope all is well.

Hero/MP(450) Young 20s whitey has no history with V that I can recollect. May be viewed as LAG. Not sure if V is suspicious of hero but he seems to like to call heros preflop raises.

Villian/CO(300) 30s white guy drinking a beer, another regular knows him by name doesn't seem very aggressive preflop.

folds to hero who makes it 12 with QQ
V calls.
headsup

Flop(27) QJ9

Hero bets 25
V calls

Turn(77) T

Hero bets 50
V calls

River(177) 3

Hero?
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04-03-2014 , 08:33 PM
Check...if we bet, we are rarely getting called by worse. On the other hand, by checking, we allow him to bluff and are put to the test for what should be a good sized bet from V. I'm prolly c/f without history or reads
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04-03-2014 , 08:39 PM
Bet 100. If he called hoping to hit his gutter on the turn and decided to call when he did, you're going to have to pay him off. There's lots of 2 pair hands that aren't going to fold. He's not going to bet less than $100 on the river if you check and I don't know how you fold to that bet. If he raises, you can then fold.
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04-03-2014 , 11:01 PM
Pretty sure his turn calling range = his river calling range.

I'm betting $50 or so here, and expecting to get called by worse often enough.
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04-03-2014 , 11:24 PM
Seems like a bet fold river to me. He's never raising without a straight and will only raise with a K. He will never bet on his own without the straight but will very often call with 2p/sets. You're likely going to call if he bets the river anyway. Might as well set the price for worse to call.
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04-04-2014 , 01:25 AM
Value bet, agree with $50 to target the widest range possible, and I think it's hard for him to pay off a much larger bet on turn and river with enough worse.
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04-04-2014 , 11:15 AM
Bet/fold 90 or so, and expect to get called by 2 pair or an occasional smaller set.

There's plenty of Kx in your range here, so he's really never raising with worse made hands or even the idiot end of the straight.
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04-04-2014 , 12:47 PM
You can always bet/fold here and even bet/fold on the low side as a blocking bet.

Since you bet 50 on the turn, you can bet 65 on the river...

one of my favorite things about LLSNL is that players have very little concept of pot sized. So as long as your river bet is BIGGER than your turn bet a lot of players will think your bet is a normal bet and won't think of it as a "weak" bet.

Anyways, this is a clear and easy bet/fold if ever there was one and you can get called by all types of two pair hands that call thinking they are beat but since this is LLSNL poker and they got two pair they call not knowing what else to do...

so b/f $65 - $75 here is fine
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04-04-2014 , 01:05 PM
DGI nailed it. I favor a smaller turn bet (35-40) for the same reason. It also gives you better odds for drawing to the boat.
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04-04-2014 , 01:30 PM
I bet/fold small on turn and river. Pretty hard for any 2pair hand to call any normal sized raise. I bet/fold 35-40 on turn and 40-45 on river

I dunno what kind of incredibly soft games u guys play in but saying to bet 75 on the river and expect to get called by worse is LOL bad.

Since we have 3 queens locked up we are targeting a weak 2pair most likely JT & T9. It's pretty insane imo to think that a reg is calling a 75+ bet on the river with bottom two on a 4 liner board with the pfr barreling all 3 streets

Feels to me like u guys are focusing too much on your hand (we has top set we has to bet) without thinking enough about what really matters which is villains range and how it relates to the board and given action
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04-04-2014 , 01:52 PM
I feel like $50-$65 leaves some value on the table. With most villains there is a "psychological barrier" for lack of a better term when you cross the $100 threshold. If we bet $100+ he probably finds a fold with many if not all of the 2 pair hands we are targetting, leaving his calling range weighted heavily towards 8x.

But I don't think the same is true for a bet in the $80-$90 range, especially if you bet in rhythm then sit still and avoid eye contact. If he is even just a little suspicious of your game he's calling it off with JT every time. Even if he's not suspicious, bad, stationy level 1 players are calling it off too, and until proven otherwise you shouldn't rule out the possibility he fits that player type.

It might seem nitpicky, but in my opinion recognizing bet/fold spots and getting the sizing right is a key point of seperation between small winners and big ones.
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04-04-2014 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay-Off-Wizard
I dunno what kind of incredibly soft games u guys play in but saying to bet 75 on the river and expect to get called by worse is LOL bad.
Unless the OP states otherwise, I assume every live $1/$2 NL game is incredibly soft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay-Off-Wizard
It's pretty insane imo to think that a reg is calling a 75+ bet on the river with bottom two on a 4 liner board with the pfr barreling all 3 streets
OP said he is drinking a beer, and "another regular knows him by name." I don't think that necessarily makes villain a regular (let alone a good regular.)
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