2 players expose hand 1/2 NL
08-16-2016
, 04:03 PM
Quote:
Grunch (means I have only read OP, not replies)
Call, then ask how many times they want to run it.
You have perfect information and can make the perfect decision here. This is an example of why math is so important.
You have 36.5% equity in the main (both FDs go down since they have each other's outs) That means that when you put your $160 into the main, it will be a 600 dollar pot, and you're 'entitled" to $219 of it, for a profit of (on average) $59.
Then you have almost 55.48% equity in the huge side pot (since two of your V's outs are gone) He has 11 outs twice, or approx 44% equity (for math you can do easily at the table). You'll be putting $665 into the pot of 1330, and winning (on average) $73.
That means that this spot is worth $132 in profit. Not a lot of pots offer that much profit. The variance is very high, but it's still a very obvious call if you run the numbers.
If V2 is also variance averse here, maybe you can run it twice. It doesn't change the EV at all, but smooths out the variance a lot. (Edit to add: I just saw that the casino does not allow
)
Call, then ask how many times they want to run it.
You have perfect information and can make the perfect decision here. This is an example of why math is so important.
You have 36.5% equity in the main (both FDs go down since they have each other's outs) That means that when you put your $160 into the main, it will be a 600 dollar pot, and you're 'entitled" to $219 of it, for a profit of (on average) $59.
Then you have almost 55.48% equity in the huge side pot (since two of your V's outs are gone) He has 11 outs twice, or approx 44% equity (for math you can do easily at the table). You'll be putting $665 into the pot of 1330, and winning (on average) $73.
That means that this spot is worth $132 in profit. Not a lot of pots offer that much profit. The variance is very high, but it's still a very obvious call if you run the numbers.
If V2 is also variance averse here, maybe you can run it twice. It doesn't change the EV at all, but smooths out the variance a lot. (Edit to add: I just saw that the casino does not allow
)
