Mohegan Sun $1/$2 on a Thursday afternoon. At a solid table with a good amount of action.

Hero is a 31 year old white guy. One of the more aggressive players at the table. I have been caught bluffing in a few spots and got stacked the first hand I played in a cooler, so I'm stuck. Villain doesn't know this however, as he is brand new to the table.

Villain is a middle aged white guy. Just arrived at the table and this may even be his first hand. I recognize him as someone who plays in the room often, but I don't think we've played much together. He knows the dealer. He bought in for a full stack of $300 and hero covers.

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Villain limps UTG for $2. Two other players call.

Hero raises from BB to $20 with AsTs (this is one of the worst hands I would ISO from the BB)

Villain calls. Others fold.

Flop: Ad 8d 4h (Pot: $40)

Hero bets $15. Villain calls.

Turn: Ad 8d 4h Th (Pot: $70)

Hero bets $65. Villain calls.

River: Ad 8d 4h Th Qh (Pot: $200)

Hero? Villain has $200 behind here.

Front door diamonds have missed but backdoor hearts complete. I bet full pot on the turn on a board that hits me really hard, so I don't think villain is going to be light here very often. Hands like AQ (which some players will limp/call), Ax of hearts, KJdd, J9dd, have improved to beat me.

Do I value jam for $200? Bet small and then fold to raise? Bet/call? Bluff catch against missed diamonds? Surely never check-folding here.

If I jam, I would expect to get called if villain somehow has AK, or by any worse two pair combo (A8s, A4s, ATo, QTdd). I also think a lot of these would value bet river if I checked though, and I also expect villain would have likely raised earlier if he had Aces up. Some worse Ax hands like AJ might call a small bet.

I would be scared of value owning myself with a jam. I think half the time or more you jam and get called you lose. Players at the 1/2 table are very reluctant to put all their money in with a call without the nuts. I would target AJ and A4 type hands. I like a bet of $65-110 for that. Im not good enough to fold this hand to raise. I expect you are good here 75%plus of the time. The front door flush missing makes this good candidate for a check call any river bet hand too, especially vs a brand new player.

Backdoor hearts make sense since he could have AhXh or 8hXh.

I think you could go 50 and bet folding would not be out of the question as an exploit. I am not that worried about balance, but you could make this small bet with some hands you could consider calling of a jam like AhQx, AhAx, and some flushes yourself if you are worried about being exploited by bluffs here.

Thanks guys. I think I should have bet small here. A lot of the time, I am afraid to make blocker-type bets because I feel like my opponents will read them as weak and put me in a bad spot by jamming over the top. But realistically, I just don't think that happens very often at $1/$2. Bet/calling this hand would be reasonable anyway. Jamming is probably too thin, and I think checking leaves too much value on the table, since many players will check back with strong hands in position here.

What ended up happening in this hand is that I checked and villain made a small bet of $80 into a pot of $200, leaving himself about $120 behind. I snap called and obviously won, but I realized afterwards that I should have given some consideration to check-jamming facing a small size? Villain is going to have worse value hands and he will be getting an incredible price to call off. I also think flushes would bet bigger, so I don't think I value-own myself too often? Would be curious if anyone has any thoughts on this play.

After I called Villain announced somewhat sheepishly "I just have an Ace" and mucked after I showed. Honestly no clue what he was doing betting the river. I thought it was a thin value bet at first with a hand like AK, but realized that maybe he was turning a weaker top pair into a bluff? Have no idea what he would have done if I check-jammed.

I've spent 10 minutes looking at this hand and it's very interesting. I think this is very firmly either a check-fold or a bet-small/fold. Sorry, this is rather long, but it's a really good spot to think about.

He's unknown but limp-calls from UTG. Hard to range exactly but on the flop let's give him all pairs TT-55, maybe 44-22, all Broadways including at least some proportion of offsuit, all suited Aces, maybe some unsuited Aces, some suited connectors. Probably not JJ+ or AK but who knows.

I prefer larger on flop. All the Broadways are folding whatever your sizing, all Ax and flush draws are calling whatever your sizing, so really it's just the pocket pairs which feel uncomfortable. So I go 25-30 but smaller probably isn't a huge mistake.

The Ten means you overtake a few hands but they might have raised the flop. He's no longer calling the pocket pairs. I like your sizing here.

River completes backdoor flushes, J9, KJ, AQ and QQ. We can eliminate some of those straight away: QQ folds turn, J9 folds flop unless it's diamonds, KJ folds flop unless it's diamonds although hearts might peel too.

There are loads of flushes as he has all the AXhh which would naturally play this way. Also 98hh and 87hh.

Don't forget slow played sets or AQ either although these almost invariably raise the turn if they didn't raise flop so not too worried about these.

If you check, it must be to check-fold. There are stacks of hands which beat you so you need enough either (1) value hands you beat or (2) bluffs.

UTG is very unlikely to value bet worse. I've seen result but Ax is almost always going to check this back. You might get a value bet from A8 or A4 (or QTdd) targetting your AK. That's about it.

What about missed diamonds? Sounds good, but what missed diamonds does he have that bluff? AXdd check back, as do KQdd, KTdd, JTdd and T9dd (a Ten should probably bluff here, but this is a 1/2 UTG limp caller so they won't). KJdd is a straight as is J9dd. So you've got like 76dd and that's about it. No, there aren't enough hands you beat to justify a check-call here.

I would be tempted to bet tiny (max 25% pot as per Mlark) to target weak Aces and maybe even a crying call from a Queen, but again it's to bet-fold, and check-folding is fine too. Your "I snap called and of course I win" is way off IMHO

Hero x/r turn.
If you don't think he's going to bet turn much then bet like $125-$150, but generally overbets are taken as being stronger. Raise OOP, bet A high and then check turn are often taken as KK/QQ or draws or something and people bet any A without thinking much about it.


On the other side I think x/r river looks stronger than just shoving pot. It's possible, as an exploit, that betting even 150 on the river will get significantly more calls than shoving ... but in general this line and just barrelling probably gets more calls than you'd think, because you are repping AK+.

Really appreciate your post. Certainly no need to apologize for the length. I agree that this is an interesting and deceptively tricky spot.

Your point about villain not having many realistic combos of missed diamonds is something that I missed. The river being a Queen really takes out a lot of combos of possible bluffs.

Villain definitely has tons of backdoor hearts combos too. Since he has many combos of made flushes and not many of missed flushes, I understand why check-folding makes sense. I think I would prefer to bet small and fold to a raise though, because I do think there are a fair amount of hands worse than AT to get value from.

To defend my "I snap called and of course I win" comment, I mostly meant that in regards to villain's sizing. When I check river after having bet $65 on turn, and Villain chooses to bet $80 into $200 (40% pot), I don't think he has a flush very often. Maybe some people would size down to guarantee a call, but if Villain really rivered the nuts with A5hh, wouldn't he bet at least half pot? I have to think most people would jam too, since I look like I should be strong in this spot and Villain can rep a busted flush draw.

When I checked the river, I was planning on calling a jam but it wouldn't have been a snap call. Calling a jam may well be a mistake too. Lots for me to think about there.

Check raising turn makes sense to me. I do worry that players aren't aggressive enough to bet with flush draw when checked to but still can likely get a bet out of a hand like AJ or AQ though.

In game, I recognized this as a spot where overbetting turn would make sense. Villain will not fold Ax of hearts to any size bet, and other nutted combo draws should not fold either (as well as slowplayed A4s and A8s).

I like a blocker bet on river, folding to a jam against unknown 1-2 reg.

This might be good against a winning 2-5 player, but I think it's bad vs. most 1-2 and even a lot of 2-5 players.
The big problem IMO is the open limp, because you are assuming a level of balance/control that very often doesn't exist with people open limping.

This feels mostly correct, although as you said limp/call ranges utg are going to be a weird guessing game. Esp. for limp/call20.
Also limper might well be calling wider because "he has position". So don't be shocked to see Kd2d or even random Jd7d.

I think this is where the ranges go off.
Yes, V can have all suited Ah*h and 8h*h but that's mostly it.
Few players are calling 7h6h or KhJh because it has backdoor flush, I'm not saying he never has 76 or even KJ but I would bet against it being limited to those combos.

Which brings us to ... what else does he get here with (apart from the monsters).

AQ is possible with some players, but those players will tend not to bet it and def. not raise or would have done so on the flop.
Sets are possible, and maybe more likely to bet but if they make it here I don't think they'd raise bets much.
Lots of random Ax hands, some people will bet even river without thinking more than lolz I has top pair and H checked.
Random two pair that's worse than AT. Like someone who gets here with QT/Q8/T8 is going to bet and think they got unlucky.
A lot of missed diamond draws. People love to not semi bluff with good flush draws and then when they brick out decide they have to bluff the river. Of those KdQd/QdJd are most likely to check back, but there are way too many Kd9d or Kd2d/Jd7d and worse and all *d4d. KdTd is a good bluff when you have a decent tight range, but probably not if it's too wide and while most 1-2 players aren't turning a pair into a bluff this is one of the better times to try it.
Random 76/65/53/52/32 or KT/QJ/etc. that decided to call and now nobody has any idea what they should do.
Random "I had a read you were on diamonds" hands that now are value/bluff betting the river when they missed and you check.


This assumes a good thinking V. And I agree that if you can't beat AJ it's not a good value bet ... but there don't need to be that many of these weird value bets to make folding bad.


Betting small yourself though might still be be best thing to do though, _much_ lower percentage of shove over a "small" bet as a bluff vs. betting something as a bluff against a check when the flop FD misses. The weird "value" bets probably call $80 if they'd bet it and some hands that wouldn't.

I'd bet for value or check and hope that induces a bluff. If he had something big, you'd probably have heard from him on the turn.