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2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep 2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep

08-24-2016 , 12:52 AM
V1 ($850): Super loose-passive and stationy. Doesn't really fold pre-flop, or to a c-bet on the flop (c/c A7o on Q84r). Won't fold hands of TP+ I'm pretty sure, and he tends to donk-bet his TP+ hands almost always. He also b/3b AQdd in a limped pot earlier on a 556ddx board like it was the nuts earlier, so he's also able to play some draws aggressively sometimes. Likely tilting due to losing a big pot after over-calling a shove + call with TT on a KQ4dd board when there was another player AIPF.

V2 (Covers): Has been at the table for a shorter amount of time than V1, and came with a stack of over $2k from a broken table. Has made a lot of small donk-bets over multiple streets. He's shown down a flopped boat, and also flopped TP with these bets, and hasn't folded to raises with these hands either. Some of his other donk-bets folded to raises on the flop however, so there are clearly some weaker hands in his donking range. Limp-calls a lot of hands pre-flop, including QQ previously. Doesn't seem aware of pot size. Also tends to think trips+ is the nuts, as he snap called V1's river shove when V1 made a flush (on the turn) in the AQdd hand.


Hero ($1650): Likely viewed as bluffy due to raising more pots than anyone else on the table (and having shown-down a couple of failed c-bet bluffs), as the table is very limp-happy, and almost never 3-betting my raises. V1 especially is noticeable getting annoyed by my raising, and is even more reluctant to fold to me than most people at the table.

Onto the hand:

V1 limps from MP, hero raises QQ from BU to $25, SB folds, V2 calls in BB, V1 calls as well. Everyone else did not VPIP.

Flop ($77): Q87

V2 bets $25, V1 calls, hero raises to $125, both call.

Turn ($452): 3

Both check, obviously we're betting but what's hero's sizing here?

It's worth noting that betting much more than $350 means that V1 will not re-open the betting if he shoves, but given his passivity in the hand so far should this be given much consideration?


Both ranges are quite weak imo, with V1 almost entirely having draws or 7x/8x, and V2 being capped at Qx (outside chance of 78), but at the same time they are both sticky and the board is extremely wet, so not entirely sure of which way this swings our sizing.

Any thoughts on pre-flop and flop sizings are also welcome (although I can't imagine there being much pre-flop debate).
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 01:22 AM
Against these specific opponents I think you're going to get called down most of the time and we want to value them to death. With a hand as strong as yours I'm looking to make bets that allow me to GII on the river with reasonable sized bet. Therefore I would bet between $400 and $450. I think you're going to get a call from at least one of your villains and I wouldn't worry about Villain one's shove closing the betting. If you bet $400 and V2 calls then V1 ships it you've trapped V2 for the extra value. If both call your bet then you can easily get the rest in on the river and go for max value.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 01:36 AM
I'm on board for a bet of $450 here. Lots of draws and I'm not going to underprice just in the hopes that a station will shove. Would even consider over betting pot to around $600.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 01:42 AM
Im still in value bet mode and want calls obv - I'd prob plunk down 350.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 01:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver
I'm on board for a bet of $450 here. Lots of draws and I'm not going to underprice just in the hopes that a station will shove. Would even consider over betting pot to around $600.
Tend to agree here. Although if you are very comfortable with lolvariance and the distinct possibility of this backfiring, the $350 has merit. I haven't quite reached the bankroll and possibly the skill level (although I've seen some godawful 2/5 players at the local room) of 2/5, but those are my dos centados.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 10:33 AM
bet 400
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 11:25 AM
In the 2/5 games I play, $300+ is a massive bet relative to pre-flop and flop action. I'm on the same page as other posters that its a reasonable bet size relative to the pot and charges the appropriate amount for Vs' ranges which are likely to be draw-heavy, but I just want to add some context that bombing this turn for $350 - $600 is likely to ring huge warning bells to even the weakest players, and fold out everything but sets and perhaps a really bad stubborn 'lets gambooool' nut flush draw.

From experience I do think that many Vs in 2/5 will actually fold a flush draw to a $350+ bet here, feeling like they haven't commited much and they only get one card to chase, so if you do get called I'd expect V's to have combo-draws or sets only.

With that, I could make the argument that my live play plan would be to bet $200 on the turn, expect at least one caller -- expecting a raise from any sets where we would jam over the top. Note that the "worst" possible holding a V could have against us is Td9d, which has 30% equity against QQ here. Any nut flush draw has 16% and any OESD has 18% (and is worried about the flush). So ignoring RIO -- $200 actually correctly charges any draw but a combo OESDFD (even if both players call), while also keeping in some two pair and AQ-type hands, and still generates a likely raise from sets which is likely the only way we're going to play for stacks on the turn.

Clearly these strategy leads to variance, because if we get 1-2 callers and a diamond or maybe even a J/6 comes on the river (and doesn't pair the board), we may need to shut down and even make a hero fold depending on bet sizing if a V donks out.

This is clearly assumption laden and just food for thought. I just think you're always playing for stacks against sets no matter what you bet, so while we want to charge draws - I occasionally find that the 'standard' ABC play, particularly in multi-way pots - can lead to bloated bet sizings that kill hero's action with nutted hands. I think its important to mix in some different lines to exploit weak V's and put them in tough river spots where they're staring at $1000 chips in the middle with a weak/moderate hand.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 11:36 AM
I agree completely with w1ngGG's logic, but I would bet $300...not $200. I think $400-$450 is too much unless the villain is a total calling station whale.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 12:00 PM
$300 to $350 (probably the latter, although gii now would be fine, so $300 might be good). I agree that $400+ is a bit much to the average player.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 12:41 PM
This looks good man, only thing maybe make it 30 instead of 25 PF.

As for the turn sizing, 250-300 seems about perfect. If the guy is tilting bad then maybe you can bump it up, but I would want some action here.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 01:48 PM
I like 240-260 better. I'm looking to get called here of course, so 350-400 is crazy strong at 2/5 and will fold out everything, even 87 a lot of times.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 03:12 PM
$375. You're so deep here and playing multiway, there's no reason to get cute. I've gotta assume your hand is vulnerable to at least one villain.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 06:01 PM
If V1 had a FD or 2P+ there is a chance he would have raised flop sometime based on history. I would really only expect him to ship with like AQ♣️ here

V2 has a fold button with his donks. He didn't fold to your raise

There is a small part of me that thinks we actually could get called if we ship here.

But for the sake of my sanity, I beat that part of my mind down into a deep dark place and I probably go 500, expecting to get called in 2 spots
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 08:08 PM
Interesting to see that most responses advocate a bet of over $350, with betting the pot being quite common. In retrospect, it does seem very unlikely that V1 would raise our turn bet anyway, since any hand he'd raise turn with would almost certainly raise flop (same for V2). The larger bet also makes sense given that both range are draw heavy, and if V2 calls our bet then V1 is going to have the correct odds to call with a lot more draws than otherwise, which he is going to be reluctant to fold anyway.

Results:
Spoiler:
Hero bets $350, V2 snap folds, V1 agonises for ages, clearly deciding between calling or folding (never raising), then folds as well.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 08:53 PM
It's been a little bit since I've played $2/5 NL so I'm learning things. Given what others have said (that $400 was too much) and the actual action of the hand, I will say that they were right and $400 probably is too much for those stakes. Although, if we're going to have a balanced range we need to value bet this big in order to be able to bluff this big as well. So I don't know...
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 10:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMarkP37
Although, if we're going to have a balanced range we need to value bet this big in order to be able to bluff this big as well. So I don't know...
At LLSNL it's very rare that we'll need to be balancing our range, and against these two opponents balancing our range would be quite a bad decision. I'd only be betting for pure value against them, although admittedly there would be some combo draws which we could bet for value due to having >33% equity against two callers.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-24-2016 , 11:56 PM
This deep, I think you can make slightly less than a pot-sized raise OTF (~$150-160). You should bet as much as they will call, its simply the highest EV option. Given opponent types I'm going full-pot OTT.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-25-2016 , 12:36 AM
With your monster hand vs. two opponents and a flash draw out there I will bet in such a way as to give them a little worse price to draw but still getting a call. Hopefully from both of them. Don't bet too much to lose them. I would bet 1/2 pot or around $200. That's why I'm going to playing a little soft. But that's just me. I want to clean them both the way I do in casinos when I have a super strong redraw and I suspect my villains trying to outdraw me. I really hope they have some flush draw.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-25-2016 , 12:58 AM
I like anywhere from 280-450
It all depends on what you think villain will pay,as other s have mentioned a pan on the turn means business no matter what they hold

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2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote
08-25-2016 , 03:12 AM
I would go $300 - $350, no need to pot this.
2/5NL: Turn Sizing with Top Set Deep Quote

      
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