Villain is a loose, fairly passive older man. Have played with him a bunch of times and he tends to be your avg fairly bad player... too loose pre, little attention given to position, over values hands post. Haven't seen him do anything horrible... just normal calling station type stuff.

Hero is viewed as TAG by anyone paying attention.

Effective stacks - $600

Several limps, hero raises As 8s on the button to $25, villain calls from bb, mp calls.

Flop: $85, 3 players

Qs Th 3s

Check, check, hero bets $50, villain calls, mp folds.

Turn: $185, HU.

Ts

Check, hero bets $125, villain shoves... ~ $400 to call.

I discount quads. Only the nittiest of nits doesn't 3bet QQ pre, but QT makes sense, as does 33... however, I'd expect almost anyone to raise my cbet on such a drawy flop.

I think he could do this with most any smaller flush as I think its difficult to specifically put me on a flush here. Also, I could see him doing this with JT, KT, AT.

So, hero...??

if your read is correct than we can probably safely say his range is only QT, 33, a smaller flush, or possibly a random T? So you're only beat by 2 hands in his range and you're ahead of a whole bunch. He's never bluffing or somehow semi-bluffing here, right? I'm sure he isn't putting you on a made flush (let alone the nut flush). I think you just have to make a crying call here and hope he doesn't already have a boat or fills up on the river. But I've just recently transitioned to live play so take any advice with a grain of NaCl.

it's a sure call for me w/o a ton of history against villan, mostly for the reasons you mentioned (Tx or flush makes sense for him) 33 and QT seem slightly less likely, so yeah, call. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see him flip 33 though.

Your description of V1 left out if he would be inclined to raise on a drawey board to protect a made hand. If yes, you can minimaze (not rule out) 2P and sets on a flushy flop as he would have raised. There was still action behind V1 when he called your flop bet. Feels like he has a smaller flush. With the limited information given, I would call.

Board: Qs Th 3s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.026% 49.03% 00.00% 453 0.00 { As8s }
Hand 1: 50.974% 50.97% 00.00% 471 0.00 { 33, ATs, KsJs, KTs, QTs, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, ATo, QTo }

I think you have to call. If you take out trips, your equity drops to 31%, which is still very close.

I think he would be more likely to raise you on the flop given a player is still to act and the board is drawy if he had a set or top two. I call and expect to see a smaller flush from him a lot of the time.

I think this is player-dependent. Bad, passive players trap too much, so they will frequently call flop with hands that good players know they should be raising (e.g. vulnerable but strong made hands like sets/2pr on wet boards). I remember thinking along the same lines as you in one 2/5 game a year ago, saying to myself "he should rarely have a set here since he would have raised the flop given the texture", and then sure enough, I saw the set. Since then I have seen bad plays like that quite often live, so I would agree that maybe we can lower the combo count of the strong hands somewhat, but we can't eliminate them.

So we bluffed the flop.
What are we hoping to get value from when we bet the turn? Smaller flush draws for sure and maybe Qx and 10x. Is he calling flop here with 10x hands. Would he flat with Q10 and 33 hoping to bring along other Villan.
This is not a betting the turn was bad post but when we bet the turn we need to know what we are trying to get value from.
It's a tough spot for sure but if he is really super passive then he could flat Q10 and 33 OTF easy. But if he is passive enough to flat those hands then is really shoving a smaller flush draw on a paired boared. But if you have been pushing the guy around or you have a history of showing bluffs then maybe.
Tough spot. It's hard to fold when getting 2:1. But big bets here usually mean the nuts or near nuts. If my only read is super passive then I muck. You said he has not done anything super terrible. Shoving here with a hand that does not beat yours is SUPER TERRIBLE, unless he is capable of a really timely bluff.

Thanks for the replies.

I am generally paranoid about paired boards, but in this case I narrowed how possible boats to 333TT and TTTQQ given the way things were played. Even these hands I found to be very unlikely because he didn't raise the flop. If he didn't raise the flop soley to disguise his hand, well, gg. But whatever....

Results:

Hero calls after a few seconds of thought and gets shown 3s full. Doh.

It wasn't mentioned, but the fact we iso'raised and continued really makes our hand look like AA/KK/AKss/AsK/AQ or something strong. This is kind of a weird spot as we rarely have A8s here so I think he can def have some AT/Tx hands imo.

Should we be betting the turn 100%? Villain folds his Qx hands here, his oesd's, his flush hands are going to likely call one street on the paired board/we are only going to bet one street probably. I guess we let his Tx and JJ hands draw fo' free which is crap.

Given action on the flop I think Villans checkraise shove range is pretty well defined. Betting the turn is okay it's just when we get shoved on here we really need to be thinking fold because the range of hands he has here that we beat is really small.
Im almost never shoving a hand here that doesnt beat heros hand because Im rarely getting called by worse and even more rarely getting folds form better.

villain is most likely raising flop with two pair or a set. A ten or a lower flush is more likely.

This is an obvious call.