This is probably a dumb post, but curious on thoughts anyway.

Hero ($1050) - Haven't won many hands, just whiffing flops and folding mostly
UTG ($840) - 50ish or so white guy; probably one of the tighter players at the table
UTG+1 (Deep/covers) - Fairly aggressive young white guy
MP ($750) - Young white guy
HJ (Deep/covers) - Fairly aggressive young white guy

Preflop:
- Several limpers, then HJ raises to $35.
- Folds to hero in SB with QQ. The $35 raise is larger than normal for HJ and table (usually see $25-30 after limpers), but I don't think his range is crazy strong. Hero raises to $100. This is my first 3bet at table (in maybe two hours of play).
- UTG snap calls (he takes a while for most a lot of decisions)
- UTG+1 thinks for a bit then calls.
- MP calls
- HJ calls

Flop ($500):
QJTr (hero flops top set). Hero?

Here's my conundrum. I think UTG's range has a lot of AK, maybe it's mostly AK. I don't think he's snap-calling with AQ and somewhat doubt 99 and smaller (he might call, but probably not snapping)... Still, hero's pretty much just gotta lead out/gii right?

Why do you think UTG's range is mostly AK, and why so focused on UTG's range in a 5-way pot? He limped in early position then called. I'd range him on pocket pairs more than AK, as even a tighter guy is usually raising rather than limping with AK. Have you seen him limp AK in early position?

I generally just plan on going broke here. Can't slow play as any A, K, 9 or 8 on the turn is bad for us. We have 35% equity against AK anyway. If we lead out for $250, we get odds to call a shove even if the raiser flips over AK or K9, and we can get raised by worse sets, AK, K9, QJ, JT and maybe some semi bluffs. We get calls from a ton of worse hands as well, like AQ, some two pair (that doesn't raise) and some pair+draw hands as well, like KQ, 99, KJ, etc.

Limping AK up front seems to happen fairly often - often to squeeze aggro PFRs (or some tighter players just always play it as a limp/call up front). Of course, this happens with KK+ (maybe QQ) as well, but I'm expecting AA to 4bet and KK to at least consider 4betting. TT-JJ seems possible. Smaller PPs could be there as well, but I expect this guy to spend some time to try to figure out who else is calling or if he might get 4bet out of the pot. It's really the snappiness of his snap call that really makes me want to give him AK and perhaps exactly JJ.

Not so worried about UTG+1, or MP. Both of them would have raised AK, and if either has K9 or 89 then gg. I am worried about them hitting a straight if I let this flop check through. HJ's range remains wide. He could have AK, but he could also potentially have hands like 78s (I did see him open a lot of medium SCs).

I think you're being a bit optimistic about our calls post-flop. AQ/KQ/99/KJ *might* call 250-300 on the flop (and they all might fold - I look like I have AK a *lot* here if I lead), but there's not going to be that many combos of AQ/KQ/KJ that are going to limp call a 3bet from SB, and 99 might fold worried that they're drawing dead.

If I'm getting value from my hand from a flop lead, it's mostly going to be to TJs, TT, JJ, QJs, QTs, and even two-pair hands might fold, not wanting to double up a 200BB stack.

Mostly agree with your analysis though. That's why I said this is probably a dumb hand to post...

pot it

Fairly aggro young white guys are not limping AK UTG too often.

Seems like just bet to set-up turn jam. $275 - $350

UTG was a 50ish kinda snug guy. I don't think UTG+1 or MP have AK ever.

he's most likely got a high PP like TT/JJ, snug old guys don't limp/flat a 3bet with AK too often.

Concur.

You aren't check folding here.

If you check and it checks through that is pretty disastrous for you.

You aren't bet/folding.

So I'm not sure what realistic alternatives really exist here. We are bet/GII.

I'm on the fence about this one...a lot of times I would do what others suggest. Although sometimes I would play it a bit slower, almost like top pair decent kicker on an average flop. You only committed 10 percent of your stack pre against 4 other players and there are 3 broadway cards on board. I think there are easier spots to win huge pots. But like I said, I usually pot it and pray.

Doing some math here, our worst case scenario is they only ever hold AK, we'll give them all combos. 34% equity vs that:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

3,041,280 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QJT

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK	65.02%	1,961,604	31,896
QQ	34.98%	1,047,780	31,896

If we bet/call UTG and assume everyone else folds, the pot will be 500 + 740 + 740 = $1980 with us contributing $740 to that total postflop. We win back 0.34 * 1980 = 673.4, so we don't have quite enough equity to GII.

If we give V combos of JJ our equity jumps to 44% and we can comfortably GII, winning back 871 on the 740 we contributed to the pot.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

3,611,520 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QJT

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK,JJ	55.93%	1,989,612	60,624
QQ	44.07%	1,561,284	60,624

Villain should have both JJ and TT in his range, so either we have a ton of fold equity (he only calls with AK) or he calls with them and we're doing great. This is also worst-case, so in reality we should just GII and be happy. We can bet like $200 and shove any turn if V calls.

Yeah this was just a frustrating and dumb situation. As I thought about what to do, I started counting combos for UTG, and decided that he's gotta be limp snap calling pre with AK at least as often as JJ/TT, and I don't really feel like 88-TT are all that likely. 6 combos of JJ and TT combined, and 16 combos of AK. So probably at least 70% AK. Then I figure if UTG doesn't have AK, HJ probably has something like 10% AK. And randomly I might run into 89s from one of UTG+1, MP, or HJ some of the time.

So I figured if I lead out, I was going to get of all/most my money in and be behind at least something like 75% of the time. If it goes 3-way, it's not great because then FH outs are likely gone.

But still had to do it obviously with pot odds. I bet, UTG jams, other players fold, I lose to AK.

What a cooler

3b too small

NITS are not playing AK right. Limp/calling with AK is an OMC move. I see it all the time. Your soul read was good but I don't see how you get away from GII here. Cooler spot.

Standard cooler.