Hero (covers): The table has been tight and passive the last hour or so. Lots of limp/folding to PF raises. Hero has been raising about once per orbit to exploit. Image is probably aggressive.

CO ($200): White guy 50-60's. Typical ABC player. His stack has whittled down to $200 from his original buyin of $500. Passive preflop and straightforward postflop.

BTN ($1250): White guy mid 20's. He is new to the table in the last 20-30 minutes. Has been talking constantly and joking around with the dealer and other regulars. Initial read is that he likse to play loose and med to strong aggresiveness. Has been seeing a lot of flops in his short time at the table.

Preflop: UTG+1 accidentally raises to $10. (I had played with him for 4 hours and he had not min-raised once, and had the reaction of someone who dropped two chips thinking it was a straddle but left it out there.) CO and BTN call. SB folds. Hero raises to $50 with 99. UTG+1 folds. CO and BTN call.

This PF raise may seem small to some, but I chose it based on how tight and passive the game was, expecting to take down the pot quite often and not massively bloat the pot oop if called.

Flop ($160) Q 9 7
Hero bets $110. CO raises AI to $150. BTN calls. Hero calls $40 more. (I think my bet size was too small here, but probably didn't matter.)

Turn ($610) Q 9 7 5
BTN has $1050 left. Hero? I am thinking a bet is mandatory, but how much and what's the plan for the river?

$375-$400. Probably value betting if the river is a non-spade or 4-liner.

Against a TP I'm betting just over 1/2 pot, but BTN is loose, so as much as $400. I'm assuming you're ranging BTN on J10, Ax and Kx, 68s. Would he be re-raising flop with Q9, 77? Does he just call flop with QJ? I'm assuming he'd raise preflop with AQ/KQ. It's important to consider these questions, so you can play the river correctly OOP, especially if it comes a K or 8.

This may be bad and a little results oriented but otf I like to bet half the short stacks stack to reopen betting if he shoves. When he doesn't shove its such a small.bet that button will sometimes raise himself anyways. As played stack sizes are crap And its not exactly your fault just the way it played. Betting 375-400 I think gives him decent implied odds to hit Ans get paid whether it be SD or FD. I think betting anymore gets folds from worse made hands and draws. Is villain aggressive enough to raise a small bet? If so I'd bet something super small like 150 give him a sense of FE. If he has aq/IQ or a set he's going to probably raise. Or with the weaker part of his range he will flat and check behind ricer cuz he doesn't want to turn his hand into a bluff with scare cards. If he has a draw he may raise or just call. If he just calls he gets an awesome price but the pot will not become that bloated and put us In such an awkward spot. Like if we bet 375 and get called and ks comes off do we jam or c/c? I mean it all feels gross. In fact I may even bet like 100. May seem weird but if he seems that aggressive I don't mind giving it a shot. Just a differennt line

I like the idea of taking an alternate line (there's a few options here). But, in reality, where are dealing with a LP more than a TAG, so we can value-bet this turn heavily. There's a 60% chance no scare cards will come on river (i'm including s here too, which is conservative, by the way) and we are HU, so we might still be able to squeeze some more value from QJ. But if we bet small to induce on Turn and Villain just flats with a draw and folds a brick river, I feel like we've lost too much value from such a strong holding. Pretty standard, I know, but probably the best line IMO.

$375 turn
$675 river and I guess pretty much any river

I like this idea of betting 75 so short stack can ship and reopen betting. I often make this play in PLO, and a lot of opponents don't even realize what u are doing and call in between anyways.

I think he probably raises 2pr or better otf. I also think he raises AQ or KQ on the btn preflop. So, aside from QJ or QT his range is draws. I think he calls the flop with any draw oesd or better.

I'd bet $275 OTT and b/f the river.

If the river is a spade, somewhat lighter making it an easier fold. Given your image, I'd bet heavier if the river bricks in an attempt to max value.

I would bet/call $350 on the turn and then ship a blank river. C/c would normally have merit to induce since he seems at least somewhat aggro from your description but the other guy being all in makes it much less likely he will fire. If the front door comes in I would block bet like $300. If Backdoor comes in I would still ship.

I think his turn calling range is big Qx, and FD+pair.

ive just seen so many villains, be them loose passive or tight aggressive or whatever however you want to classify them, tpgk kinda hands when the board gets really wet and the pot gets really big. $400 is alot of money to people. its also 80bb. so either way you look at it, its a pretty damn big bet. its really hard for them to call here with qj/qk type hands when there are many scare cards for them too.

If I bet $400 on the turn, I think we can assume BTN folds Qx hands that don't have any other draws. I also think he folds weaker draws like oesd and maybe some flush-only draws. Since I think he generally raises his 2pr+ hands otf, that leaves mostly combo draws in his range. (If he has 86 for the turned straight, I am paying him off.)

A combo draw figures to have 12-14 outs going to the river, so let's assume 25% equity. Betting $400 offers 2.5 to 1 true odds and lays 4 to 1 implied odds. So, he definitely has the math he needs to call with a combo draw and can play perfectly against me on the river.

As such, do I need to bet more on the turn to cutoff his odds? Is my thinking flawed here?

thinking is not flawed i agree 100%. but this is what makes this spot so tough, the $$ amount and bb amount that we bet here on the turn to price out draws is pretty damn big and most people are folding. so we can either bet $475+ and win the pot right there, which im not that unhappy about. or we can price him in and make river stacks pretty ugly, i.e. betting 375-400. or we can try an alternate line and attempt to get him to spew showing false FE/weakness. so its really up to you. these draw heavy boards oop with the stack sizes are tough spots man. i think you can never go wrong by betting like $500+ and getting it in on all rivers. i mean what if he has 10j but no FD but hes planning on repping FD so we have to either jam or c/c all rivers, kinda sucks but meh

Preflop raise size is fine.

Flop bet size is fine.

I think I like betting half his stack on the turn, 525. I guess I wouldn't despise a shove, but I'd be more likely to do that if he had 800 or less. I think if you're going to make an error in this spot though, you should bet too much rather than too little. You could even bet the pot, but I think 525 should do the trick. I'll assume he's capable enough to know that it's either shove or fold at that point.

As far as putting him on a range, I would expect him to cold 3-bet the flop with 77. However, he could be trapping, and of course that's exactly the hand we want him to have. I'd expect a raise from AQ preflop, but maybe KQ? I think he could play A9 this way on the flop. If he does have a hand like that, it's very possible that CO is holding blockers to the flush.

The moral of the story is that I think you'll be satisfied with the results if you make a sizable bet on the turn.

I really like this line of thinking and believe it works great in certain situations. Here though, I'd hate to bet 75 and have them both flat call, especially if a scary turn card comes.

first thing, your math is wrong, btn should have 1k behind.

well, what's his range after the flop call? JT, T8, spade FD, pair of queens, discounted Q9, 77?

Queens fold turn, 77 is most likely getting it in anyway. So your move is based largely around JT and the spade FD. You need to bet enough that you can go all in on the river and not give him implied odds for a proper flop call.

his equity is 18% for JT, 15% for a flushdraw, so you need to bet at least 350-400 as others have suggested. I would suggest 450-500 because he is probably going to call with his draw anyway, so you can maximize his error, and if he folds, at least it reduces variance.

And I guess you could maybe crying check/fold the river if it's Ks or 8s, but for the most part the river is a shove all day.

edit: oh, i didnt see 86. Oh well, if its 86 you are losing it all anyway.

Thanks for the replies. Results:

BTN had a single stack with 5 different denominations of chips in it. I should have asked for a count, but I didn't and estimated that he only had $600-700 left. So, I shipped all-in and he folded Th8h. The river was a Jh, which would have made him the nuts. He claims he would have called a reasonable bet on the turn. Not sure what his definition of reasonable was. I wasn't happy about my mistake of underestimating his stack size, but it may have saved me money. I posted because we debated for a while how much I should have bet on the turn if I had known his actual stack size. The CO had AQo.

grunch

a bet IS absolutely mandatory. I'm betting 1/2 pot at least ~300-400 probably in game. If he shoves, snap call (obv).

I think once you bet if he flats on the turn, he has a marginal made hand like a bigger Qx or is drawing (spades, pair+FD). If a spade hits, I probably bet the same amount on river and have to fold to a shove. No way he's bluffing with one person all-in. On a blank river, I move all-in myself.

Hmm, I guess I didn't consider another club OTR. I'm really not sure about that one...debating between the blocking style bet with a spade and shoving. But definitely betting.

Calling a big bet on the turn with just an open-ended straight draw and the possibility that the J or 6 of spades or clubs might give you a flush would be pretty terrible IMO.

Well played. Like I said, better to overbet than underbet.