2/5NL, 9 handed, $200-$1000 buy-in.

Villain BB ($819)
Age: 60s
Sex: M
Ethnicity: White
Play style: LAG/TAG
Relevant history: I have played with this guy about 15 hours or so over the past week.
Comments: He will call pretty big raises before the flop, and some times donks out really big into multi way pots. I have seen him do it with a missed small PP on a very dry board (66 on AT2r). I have seen him bluff on a few occasions. I'm not really sure whether to classify him as TAG or LAG because he doesn't really play too many hands. Somehow crafty and incompetent at the same time.

Hero UTG ($1700) is dealt: QQ
Age: 20s
Sex: M
Ethnicity: White
Play style: LAG/TAG
Relevant history: I have been at the table for about 2 hours and have won almost every pot I have played so far after doubling up the third hand with KK that went to showdown. Since then I have been using my winning image to my advantage and winning many pots without showdown.

Pre-flop:
Hero raises to $20, folds to Villain in the BB who calls.

Flop ($35): 1097
Villain checks, Hero bets $30, Villain calls.

Turn ($95): 4
Villain checks, Hero bets $65, Villain calls.

River ($225): K
Villain checks, Hero bets $145...

Thoughts on my river bet as well a sizing throughout the hand would be appreciated.

Well, it should be very unlikely he has a K. About the only K he could have would be KT, but, from what you said about him, I'm guessing he would have donked into you on flop with that hand.


I'd say river is read dependent. If you think opponent my check - raise you and put you in a tough spot, check behind, but tbh you should still be way ahead of his range here, and, if you size the bet correctly, probably stand to get called by enough of his range enough of the time, that checking behind is probably not correct here.


His range here should be something like T8 - TQ (not including T9,) with the assumption that he would have bet flop himself with either KT AT, or T9.

The other hands in his range should probably be pair plus OESD type hands, so pretty much 78 and 98.

I suppose 88 should also be included.

So I'd go ahead and say he probably is holding one of those 6 hands (78, 89, 88, T8, TJ, TQ)

You beat all of these at every point. The only question is, can you get a call on the river, when the straight hasn't come in, and all they have is a medium strength one pair hand, that is very unlikely to be the best when you have bet all 3 streets?

As long as you don't think he might try to check raise you on the river and put you in a hard spot, the answer is, it doesn't really matter, you should bet.

I'd say you might want to bet a bit smaller then you did though, maybe even less then half pot. I'm not sure he's calling the size you made, with 89, and T8, or even with TJ and TQ.

Flop, and turn sizing both look very good, but on those streets he has a pair and is chasing a draw, so you can bet as big as you did and still get called. On the river, with no hope of a straight remaining, you can't expect a medium strength one pair hand to call as big of a bet, so I'd say...

Flop, and Turn, sizing is perfect, River, it should be a bit smaller. I'd say in the 90 - 120 range.

I like it all well played

^^^I agree with all of this except I don't think he always donks with AT. I also think the river bet size should be smaller to get crying calls from his medium strength hands. Or, if he is the type that reads big bets as bluffs, you could try one here, but he doesn't really sound like that. So I think the smaller size is better. If he c/r the river, I will be skeptical but probably fold and credit him with KT.

QJ? KQ? KJ? A8?

Slowplayed flopped straight?

OP, I would probably bet less on the river, maybe $110.

Though the more capable he is of bluff raising, the more I would lean towards just checking. I tend towards conservative river play with showdown hands that probably doesn't get me enough value though.

I'm checking the river. I don't think there is enough value, and there is a chance were value-towning ourselves. there are ~8 combos of KQ out there that are checking that river fairly often. Also, JQ will check some % of the time given villains profile.

As for why I don't think there is enough value: I don't expect him to call with Tx or 88 often here. First, I discount Tx because hes going to donk Tx with some frequency OTF. 88 is not going to make a hero call as it will be scared of the king. Can't really see 98s calling, either.

Meh, I'm a nit.

check behind....

Grunching ...

Fine until river which I think needs to be thinner to get a call from Tx. Additionally, if he has KT you will lose less when he raises.

The following range is considering he is calling you to the river with any of the 9's in his defending range, any OESD and KQ (gs+oc).

Given that range, he has a K or better 47% of the time.



If you tighten up his range a bit by assuming he folds his KQs on the turn, would have reraised at some point with JJ, and would have folded all of his 9's at some point before the river, then he has top pair or better still about 47% of the time:



If you think there is a 50% chance that he would have lead out with his QJ and KT hands on the river, and a 50% chance that he would have played AT a different way, and discount those hands on the river because of that, then he has top pair or better about 40% of the time:



Since you need to be good more than 50% of the time when he calls you, I think this is a clear check. Even if he is calling with his entire range of hands that you beat (down to his 9's) then it is close. But since you've shown this much aggression and this board hits your range pretty good, I think he's folding a lot of his 9's and 10's when you fire this river (or they would have folded before on the turn).

Nh and nice river bet. Fold to a raise

Why is it a nice river bet? What range do you put villain on and what part of his range do you think he is raise/call/folding?

Ok, I agree with Eihli.

This is not a good river bet. What worse is he calling with? Hero checks behind for showdown value.

I don't think villain shows up with a king often enough to worry about value owning ourselves here. We have blockers to QJ as well.

If villain has decided to call down with top pair or if he had a pair with an 8 we miss out on too much value by checking behind.

Regarding having blockers: Taking two Queens out of his range does absolutely nothing to his chance of having top pair or better vs a weaker hand. Yes he'll have fewer straights that beat us, but he'll also have fewer QTs that we beat. I have plugged this into Flopzilla to verify and can upload the image if you want.

And for villain to call our 3barrel here with something like 89, he has to think we have exactly AJ or AQ. The rest of our range beats him. I don't think many villains are that loose/unthinking/crazy and the type that are I would be more worried about getting check-raise bluffed by them.

Regarding blockers: the QJ combos are halved. QT combos are also halved but there were fewer of them anyway. JT and AT are unchanged.

I'd rather take the chance that villain will call us with something like 89 than not get value from AT. I think villains with KT would lead the river some if the time so we can weight it less than hands like JT AT.

If villain is good enough to checkraise bluff the river then good luck to him but I see that so rarely

Well played. I like every street but would go with 25 preflop and $110 otr as played. We want to widen his calling range since we rarely have a bluff here (other than AQss and AJss) and we have a winning image meaning that our fold equity is higher than normal.

I guess I need to purchase flopzilla! This is pretty sweet.


I agree with most. One of my leaks WAS not getting enough value. People will call a ton on the river. I do like a smaller river bet. That makes me think you hit AK, especially with your image. Definitely smaller bet and if he c/r, then fold, your beat. If he c/r bluffs, good for him, although I doubt this type of player would do so. I sould easily put him on 88 or even a weaker hand putting you on a miss.

Sorry I took so long to respond, but thanks for the input! It might be worth mentioning that villain is probably capable of looking me up light here. I can't recall specific instances, but I'm sure he has seen me raise and barrel with Q4s, or K7s type hands before (in position obv. but who knows if he is paying attention to that).

I played a hand with him where I had raised with A3s and the board ran our something like: 7d3d4c2h9c and the flop went c/c, turn I bet, he called, river i checked and he bet out fairly quickly. At the time, I was very skeptical, since his line made no sense. I decided to just fold since this was during the first hour I had played with him and basically I though "this old man isn't bluffing". Once I folded he showed Js6s for a missed double gutter OTT.

Anyway, on to the real reason I posted this hand...

River ($225):
Villain checks, Hero bets $145, Villain raises All-in to $704 total, Hero cries...

Edit: It also may be worth noting that villain had all green chips left. OTR, after I had been thinking for a little while he turned to me and said "you know its on you right?", to which I nodded and then bet. He then stacked all his chips in one tall stack and slid them toward the betting line. He hesitated slightly about in inch before the line and then slide them into the pot.

I think this is really the key, to betting or not betting the river here.

From the description he gives of opponent, it doesn't seem like he would c/r bluff OTR here.

That means when he c/r's it should be only for value with a straight(most likely QJ) or two pair (KT).

Even with those two hands, I think he's more likely to bet river, not go for a check raise. Once again, this is based on description of villain.

Furthermore, from description of villain, it sounds like he might be the type to call a 3rd barrel (provided it isn't too big,) with a medium strength one pair hand, often enough to make betting, smallish (maybe around $100) here a +ev play.


I really think when he checks river, you are way ahead of his range, and will get called by enough of it, to warrent the 3rd barrel.

alright, well you posted your result, while I was in the middle of writing my previous post.


Being none results oriented though, still think a bet here is good most of the time against villain as described.

It happens, I don't think the result invalidates the river bet, although as I mentioned I would go smaller to widen the range since I don't think the smaller sizing induces vs. this villain.

I see a lot of
Level 1: We have a hand that only loses to top pair or better.
Level 2: There are a lot of T's and 9's in his range that we beat.

But none of
Level 3: Villain is thinking: "He raised preflop, and has bet 3 streets. He could have: 99+, AT+, QJ-KQ, KT-KJ. The only hands in that range that we beat are the AJ and AQ, and he probably doesn't fire 3 barrels on this board with those hands. My 2nd or 3rd pair is almost never good when he fires this rive so I'm going to fold."

Right, this is what all of the players in this thread would be thinking, if they were the villain in this hand.

But we have no reason to believe villain is thinking on this level.

From the way he described the villain, he doesn't sound like he is thinking much at all, or is very good.

He also said, in his last post, he does think he can get looked up light here.



There are villains against which I would be checking behind here, but this particular one, doesn't seem like one of them.

I realize he did end up c/ring after all, but I think most of the time, he doesn't and he does call light enough of the time (to the correct, smaller, sizing)

Of course, this particular time, the results do go in the favor of the check behind argument, but we have to be process oriented, not results oriented.