Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891
Since you have a good image, I'm c-betting that flop probably around 80% of the time. Checking behind isn't a disaster though.
On the turn, I'm calling sometimes and folding sometimes, leaning far more toward calling since he's more aggro than most.
On the river, I'd range him at something like:
30% stone bluffs
30% 10-X
15% J-X
25% a monster (6-X, flopped straight, flopped set, ect)
Since you're only good here 30% but need to be good 31.6456% to call, I'd fold...but calling can be good for our image and for info.
Quote:
OK, now we're getting somewhere. I like your ranging.
30% Tx and 30% bluffs is where we differ. Tx bets smaller for value almost always unless he is turning it into a bluff so I think with this bet size it's less than 15% Tx(a lot of that JT) with a lot of the other 15% going to bluffs.
I'm wondering if a raise/fold has merit? Say raise to $225 to fold out the bluffs, TX and JX hands. This may be somewhere between similar to and better than a call. Here's my math.
Call using BenT's range (30% bluffs):
EV= 30% ($300) - $95 = -$5
Call using Crackleback's range (45% bluffs):
EV= 45% ($300) - $95 = $45
Raise $225 / fold using BenT's range where all but monsters fold
EV= 75% ($430) - $225 = $115
This 75% fold rate is not realistic because we can expect some calls from some of the non-bluff hands. That said, a 62.8% fold rate has the same EV as a call using Crackleback's range and a 52.3% call rate is break-even EV.
EV= 62.8% ($430) - $225 = $45
EV= 52.3% ($430) - $225 = $0
So, if a raise to $225 will scare away V slightly more than half the time, this play makes some sense.
Thought?
