hand:

2/5
fish limp HJ, Hero 30 Ks10s on BTN, SB 135, BB cold call, HJ fold, Hero call
(405) flop Qh8s9d
SB 105, BB call, Hero call
(720) turn 4s
SB x, BB 250, Hero flat, SB fold
(1220) river 8h
BB x, Hero 1.1k

Notes: BB is an older gentlemen, looks like he could've been in a band -esque. I did not know this but two regs told me afterwards he's a huge station. What are thoughts on river jam? Feel we have better flush combos (stuff unblocking AsKs, KsJs, 10s7s) to do it with but feels "pure" when checked to as we have air and BB showed weakness. My buddy said river jam is repping nothing as we'll always raise sets and J10 on turn, which got into an argument on turn play alone. So, what are your thoughts? Are we printing and getting AQ to fold with the turn jam while balancing our value (buddy's argument)? Or, are we instead blundering by stuffing the middle portion of our range, getting better to call and worse to fold, the converse of the fundamental rule for betting and avoiding a tricky node with potentially challenging river play with equities/math on our side (my argument)?

At a typical 2/5 live game this is a fold pre. People dont 3! Bluff even close to the correct wide range so you can fold exploitatively.

BB cold call is usually AQ AK JJ-77. Passive fish might just underplay 99 but not super likely he checks the river. People play quads super weird and can be in almost any line, so he could have that but only 1 combo. I think its pretty unlikely he has less than AQ.

Im not really in the business of getting fish to fold Tptk, and your call/call/ship line is super bluffy. Rainbow flop with gutshot and picking up BDFD means they arent as likely to put you on a draw, so that helps, but who is just cold calling the flop AND turn with a set? Maybe you underplayed JT, maybe.

^What he said.

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Don’t like it. With the 8s on the flop, what do you flat with on turn that binks an 8 on the river? If you flatted the flop with a set you’re raising the turn, so all I really see that is played this way for value is 89 suited of which there is only 1 combo.

I like it. Your draw on the Turn is too *strong* to raise. You’re getting a very nice price, there’s a chance a Jack gives you a stack (if you’re up against a lower straight), and you have some bluff-outs too (almost impossible for V to call with a hand like AQ if River is a Ten). And another argument against raising the Turn is that the BB has a lot of sets—the cold-call preflop is a lot of 77-JJ—and he’s bet into two people on a wet board on the Turn; he’s gonna have 88 and 99 a lot here. So I don’t like raising the Turn.

AS PLAYED: I like shoving on this River.

A) We have the worst hand we can ever have.
B) With another 8 on the board, Villain is now less likely to have flopped a set of 8s.
C) He checked! Maybe he’s done that with 9s full (or quads), but…maybe he’s NOT being deceptive, and he’s just done it with AsJs or a KQ-type of hand that’s going to fold to a jam. YOU can still have 99, 88, 98s, JTs, some QQ, etc, that would play like this and happily jam the River.

If you lose, I would expect it to be against a well played flopped set. And then you just knock the table and pay up. Because you both played it perfectly.

I *think* our Turn bluff-raises should be KdTd and KhTh. (or KdJd/KhTh). KsTs has too much equity.

I would fold pre to the 3bet, as well as otf, and I prefer to bluff ott which is where you have the most equity and FE. I've noticed when bluffing otr for less than a psb, they will call wider and more often since it's the final bet in the hand (not even mentioning him asking himself "if he had such a great hand why didn't he raise otf or ott?). If we jam the turn which should be about a 1.5/2x bet (assuming since stacks aren't mentioned) it will get a lot more folds.
We should always be assuming we would never hit our draws and instead be thinking about our opponents range and if we think we have any FE against it, not that we should flat bc we have such a great draw when we're likely way behind.

Open is big, then SB makes it ~4x your raise 3bet (3.5x pot), then BB just lol cold calls. Just fold. As Tomak said, even at 2-5 people's 3bets here aren't going to be that close to GTO, which means I'd lean towards fold anyway (esp. for this size -- Note that bots 5x 3bet, but that's from a 2.5x open so 12.5bb total ... this is 6x open and 4x 3bet for 24bb total).

I don't mind shoving turn, and can have 4 combos of JT here and some sets. Raising KdTd seems like a bad idea for humans IMO.

For the river meh ... do you have Td8d? I think you are close to bottom of range, but what hands want to bet this size for value. Also feels like a spot where BB checks AQ to bluff catch. Maybe betting smaller just to target AK/AJ/AsXs type hands is better?

JT probably raising turn almost pure, sets not so much. But I would agree you are repping pretty thin on the river.

Overall I think you have to discount some value combos which leaves not many and a lot of bluffs. I'd say it seems pretty easy to overbluff here.

Your hand combo seems ok because you block TP and the straight though I really hate holding two spades.

We need to make sure we have the right balance between bluffs and value when we raise the Turn—or IF we should have a Turn raising range at all. (As I mentioned, I’m not sure we should—I think “just calling” with our entire continuing range {{including sets and straights}} is a fine decision.)

But if we DO want to raise our value hands (sets and straights) on the Turn, then we need to balance that out by having bluff raises. Which hands would we bluff with on the Turn, then? Well I suggested KdTd/KhTh/KdJd/KhTh. Th9h seems solid too. Is that enough? Should we add the JJ/TT hands that don’t have a spade to our bluffing range? I’m not sure.

We should really just throw balance out the window though when we're playing against someone for the first time. Just play the hand in a way that you think is best at this particular moment to win the hand.

I'd fold pre with 76s and fold turn with KJs/KTs no flush draw so I'd have 2 bluff combos unless I use ace high.

People don't usually bet turn and then trap river at this SPR so I'd shove AQ and bet all bluffs.

Raising turn feels wrong especially with SB behind.

Post stacks in OP.

Really need to know stack sizes and a bit about SB and HERO before making a logical roadmap but here it goes...

Preflop: If we're going to call a 3!, SB must be a good competent player with a wide 3! small blind range. If HERO is TAG and SB is TAG and stacks are average to short, it's an easy fold. If you're really deep and/or have a skill advantage vs. SB post flop, or you or the SB has been a maniac at the table for a bit, a call is fine as long as HERO is comfortable with GII with value, draws and bluffs on certain board textures. K-10s is just not a good hand to play even in position vs. regs or players who are not balanced and who will give overcredit when their opponents make their flushes, so playing this hand takes a LOT into account and cannot be determined good or bad based on OP.

OTTH. We call after BB flats (alert!). With Q98r, everyone could have J-10s in their range, though it's weighted more to HERO than anyone else and unlikely with BB. Again stack sizes would be helpful here for range purposes, but with what is known I'd say HERO is 3-4x more likely to have J-10 vs Villains which is a good thing.

SB range bets 1/3 which tells us nothing and personally I think is a mistake. I would check or bet more to charge draws with made hands, especially with this middling texture connecting a lot wrt to his opponents. If I had J-10 in the SB or a set, I'd be looking to get more in now so I can get stacks or close to stacks in OTT.

BB calls (alert! alert!) and now HERO has an inflection point to make at this juncture: flat for the homerun or raise with a blocker to the nuts, a gutter to the actual nuts and an over that contains some showdown value that wins us the pot a small portion of the time.

HERO calls which is ok, but HERO must now know what calling actually means. If we're not raising here, it's going to look more suspicious raising on future streets. Even reg opponents notice this type of thing. The turn is a blank for everyone, though I'd suspect SB to continue firing with AKss, AJss and even A9ss/A5ss at some frequency. But along with his range bet on a non-range board, I'm going to take this as a weaker hand that at most caps at top pair but skews more to AK, JJ, 1010 and maybe KQo at best.

BB fires 250. BB is uncapped here though it's unlikely he has J10 for reasons already stated. Logical hands that play this line are AQs, KQ, all sets and the occasional overpair, along with combo draws like QJss and AJss. You say big blind is an older gentleman and based on experience, these player types are way more likely to ch/call combo draws than semi-bluff them into multiple opponents. So we're weighted right now against a hand that is good enough to bet given how the hand has played to this point. Now our decision should come down to stack sizes and FE and character types of all who's in the hand.

If stacks are short, raising and jamming is ok, though we know we're going to get looked up more than we would like. In reality we want our jam bluffs to work as much as possible and since this 4s didn't change anything on the turn and HERO flatted behind 2 opponents on the flop, AND BB is now leading it's going to be looked up exponentially more than if we had raised pre.

If stacks are large, jamming is out of the question and now it's whether to raise small, raise large or call to realize equity. The best part about your hand is both of your perceived nut draws (As-Xs is out of there, but extremely rare and we can't be scared of it) is their deception. If a jack hits and either opponent has a 10, you're collecting maximum value. If a spade comes and it's checked to you, you can bet and expect to be looked up a ton of the time. And additionally you're also able to fold when you miss and move on without losing any more value.

As Played since we're not willing to raise OTF or raise OTT, we are now telling our opponents that J-10 is no longer a possibility and sets and two pairs are very unlikely as well. At most we have AQ though we're weighted to QJ and combo draws like the one we have now. Even regs know we're capped right now and on some kind of draw.

After SB folds and river bricks 8h, we have absolutely nothing we can represent. It's unfortunate but that's life. HERO checking in this particular spot often means he is bluff catching with a hand like TP. He could have k9ss or A9ss I guess but those are dots compared to the mass of his range that contains a lot of KQ and better hands. Unless I had other evidence about BB style, AP I think the river jam is a large unforced error.

Overall I think we made our bed with a suspect flop call, flats both on the flop and the turn that weight towards transparent draws that leads to this decision.

sorry guys I jammed all in river. BB is having a night, up like 2-3k on a 4-5k stack. SB is spewy aggro Russian guy

No need to apologize, it’s the right play. If BB is calling this with every top pair he is WAAAAY over-calling.

There's already 1200 in the pot. Your opponent likely has something. How much do you have left. If we assume youre playing 200bb deep, that's a 550 ish shove. You're expecting someone to fold that often? I mean you can do it and treat it as a lesson when it doesn't happen.

He cold called a 3bet man. He isn't "over calling" if his range is only strong value.

Op dont listen to the nits. This hand is a clear call pre and even can be 4bet if SB is 3betting a lot

That being said T9s, QTs and QJs are all seem like significantly better bluffs and in my experience players like the described BB don't have many x/f's on this river. You also don't need hardly any bluffs bc we have such a narrow value range. Choose wisely

Why would you bluff with a pair here?

Because those hands have almost zero showdown value and they all block villains boats and straights

When BB bets turn after cc pre and call on flop his range is extremely strong and since we have 2 spades he will rarely have a fd. T9s is the best bluff by a lot. T9s>>>>QTs>QJs

Just an FYI, they say that about your play too.

Calling the 3 bet is an error unless V is 3 betting a correct range which is insanely unlikely. KTs isnt really much of a 4 betting hand, because the T blocks a lot of the bottom of Vs range. Even the maniacs dont really 3 bets “a lot” (as in, more than gto) btn vs sb.

Hard for you to have flat called the small flop and turn bets with anything that makes a boat on the river.

Adding onto what others have said, there's so much I don't like about hero's line...

1. Any combo that would make us a boat or quads on the river might have folded pre, and is more likely to have raised flop or turn for value and protection than to have over-called.

2. JT likewise might have folded pre, probably would have raised turn if not flop, and should be leery of jamming river when the board pairs.

3. V's top pairs and over-pairs are now 2P, counterfeiting Q9.

4. Any combo that was some sort of draw on the flop that picks up a BDFD on the turn, like J9ss or ATss missed. V is going to be calling wider, because all the draws bricked out.

We're repping so thin for value, just a handful of combos, which don't seem entirely credible in this line. Don't see what better hands we're hoping to fold out here, other than ace-high, which will fold to a much smaller bet. Doubtful V is folding JJ/TT, double-blocking the nut straight.

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The worst part about this river is that you force him to fold hands like QJ, QT, KQ, or even AQ. Plus, your spades block hands like ATs, KTs, and T9s. That just sucks. And your line looks so bluff-heavy on that board; you don't have sets. You represent basically what? JT.

A balanced jam river range includes hands like AQ and KK, but you probably bet $350 with those or even check behind. No way people risk 200bb for thin balanced value. So your jam is basically - maybe some full house, JT, or air.



Btw, something to notice: if he calls with all Qx, then jamming is a huge mistake. If he folds QT, QJ, and some KQ, then it's just slightly +EV.