Join Date: May 2023
Posts: 1,650
FWIW, it is an interesting hand.
I was thinking about it some more. Conceivably, you could have a hand like T8s or J8s, that flopped middle pair with an inside straight draw, and rivered trips. But there are a few problems with that.
First, are you opening J8/T8 on the BTN, and calling the SB's >4X 3B pre? Maybe you are, when the BB calls, because implied odds and position, or whatever.
Secondly, the turn brings in the BD spade draw, and the 8s is on board. If you were going to continue when the SB checks and the BB bets, with the SB still left to act behind you, possibly waiting to put in a check-raise, you'd be more likely to continue with J8ss or T8ss, which you can't have.
It would be kind of dicey to call with J8/T8 of some other suit, when not all your straight outs are clean. But those would be J8/T8 of diamonds or clubs. If you wanted to rep one of those combos, it would be better if you had the J or T of one of those suits in your hand, but you don't.
You have the KsTs, which block the combos of AKss, ATss, and T9ss we'd hope to fold out with a bluff.
More realistically, when BB takes over the betting lead on the turn, he probably has some sort of marginal showdown value, and is less likely to be on a naked draw that missed. He could have some combo of AXs, maybe A9s, that might fold to a decent-size river bet, or AQss, that is almost certainly not folding. He might also have AJss occasionally, that will fold to a small bet.
When he checks river, he's either checking to fold to any reasonably-sized bet, checking to call any reasonably sized bet, or checking to raise. There's no point jamming if he's planning to call or raise, and no point jamming if he's going to fold to a small bet. His turn bet sizing is somewhat small, suggesting he's not trying to protect 2P+, just a weak 1P, or a BDFD that missed.
I think we could probably get all the folds we'll ever get just by betting $400, to rep AQo, or even KQss, which we block with the Ks in our hand. He should definitely fold any ace-high combos like AJ. He might fold A9/T9 or QT, maybe even QJ at some frequency. Once in a blue moon he might make a super nitty fold and release AQ or KQ, or even Q9.
Maybe jamming folds out more QX combos, but as a general rule, and absent any strong reads, I don't like trying to fold out TP+ by repping super-thin after showing little to no aggression on earlier streets. It's just not very credible that we're going to get to the river with trip 8's or better.
