Quote:
If we look at villians potential value hands we're up against 10 combos of value hands that beat us (3)66 (3)99 (1)qq and (6)kq's which are often borderline raise hands dependant on villians tendencies but since there are minimal reads we'll exclude these (kq) from thoughts.
First off on the value hands i think we can exclude qq as typically QQ will L/R pre. obv 99 and 66 are in his range.
Next, when we construct a bluffing range that consist of 80% semi bluffs and 20% complete air. (maybe to generous on the air) we can include K10 KJ J10 78 (dd). against a strictly sd+fd and 66 99 we only have about 23% equity. if we give villian the 20% air hands we gain 11% and are now hold 34% against range. If we think villian can ever reraise with only a sd no fd to go with it. we can add even more hands into villians range KJo KTo JTo no 78 due to pre range estimates. We jump to holding 61% equity against a range with zero% air hands with 0 equity.
i really like this range, but i think 2prs and sets are a very small part of it.
and i think this gets a lot more interesting if we're deeper, but we're only about 125bb's deep. i think given how hot you're running, and how unlikely this flop is to hit you given your perceived range. You're at the very bottom of your stack off range. this seems like a standard stack off spot. you can't fold here. too much equity, and vs a good regular, you can't fold this. it's way too exploitable.
you def can't call off half your stack and then fold a turn.....you've got to stack off here and get value versus draws.
i'd probably call his raise if we were 200+bb's deep.
