History: The table has been playing pretty nitty overall (including Hero), I'm not even sure why I played in this game as long as I did.

Villain 1 BB ($360)
Age: Early 20s
Sex: M
Ethnicity: White
Play style: LAG
Relevant history: I recognize this player from the room that I play in. He normally plays 1/2, but is playing 2/5 today. Overall I would say he is probably an okay player compared to the field, but still lacks many skills required to be a good or great player.
Comments: He is capable of bluffs and semi-bluffs and could be considered somewhat tricky and trappy, although I can't be sure since I have only played with him a few times.

Hero HJ ($1100) is dealt: AJ

I have been playing the definition of TAG, which probably appears nitty since I have been kinda card dead. My bets have been getting respect for the most part.

Pre-flop:
Hero raises to $20, BTN calls, Villain in BB calls.

Flop ($55): J107
BB checks, Hero bets $40, BTN folds, Villain raises to $140, Hero...?

Villain now has ~$200 behind. The board is so wet, but we only have one pair. Fold or shove?

I would muck it. You're not getting any worse hands to call your shove except maybe combo draws which you are not far ahead of.

If you think he's bluffing enough of the time then calling it down isn't as bad as shoving but on this board I'm just mucking it.

We all know he can have sets, bare fds, and combo draws here but how often does he show up with:

the nuts?
2pair?
KJo?
QQ?

We'd have to narrow his pf range a bit before we'd know what to do.

In lieu of that, I'd lean toward folding based on your image and the action.

I would also consider not cbetting this flop and taking a more passive line sometimes. Kind of like a "safe turn" thing in plo. If BTN checks thru, you play a turn underrepped and the pots not too bloated for your TPTK mw on a dangerous board. If BTN bets behind you and BB folds you can call and totally misrep your range hu. If BTN bets and BB calls u can call and then donk a lot of safe turns. If BTN bets and BB raises AJ is an ez fold.

Just somethin to consider.

Fold. I stove/analyzed this type of a situation a while ago in a post. He is not good enough to exploit you here. The only way you could call is if you knew his tendencies well enough where he never continues after the flop with draws. I kind of think he is shoving turn with most if not all of his range. Just stove it and post results itt IMO.

@SeeThomasHowl, The problem is, I'm not sure how often he shows up with each of those. I would guess it is possible for him to show up with all them with the exception of QQ, since I believe he would 3bet with pre. Other than that I think he calling really wide from the blinds, and could easily have a 107s type hand.

If two pair hands and 89 are easily in his range here its a fold and not close. Id also defer to what Setsy said since hes done the leg work (and Id take his suggestion of doing the leg work yourself also). I should too.

Yeah... I really need to get poker stove. I have been procrastinating for like two years now. Where can I get it? Is is free? If not, how much?

*grunch*

Folding here. There are so many possible made hands (in addition to strong draws) that have us beat and are consistent with villain's range, that it's unclear how to continue: a brick on the turn doesn't really make us feel great.

Odd thought: Vs. this villain and with this board, I'd be more likely to call the raise if I had the option of acting first on the turn. If my line were bet / call flop, open shove turn, I'd feel pretty good about getting some draws and even better made hands to fold. But in this hand, I expect villain to open shove turn pretty often, even when it bricks, and so I don't want to call $100 on the flop when I'm virtually certain that the turn won't improve me and I'm going to be the one facing a substantial bet.

Its free, just Google it.

As far as waiting for a safe turn to bet this is something I would consider if a)we are deeper and the importance of protecting the stack increases relative to protecting the pot and b) we were up against a tough, aggressive opponent who would rarely just call on this board with any of his range.

This thinking is interesting to me. Even though we only have two opponents, we really should think carefully about Cbetting this flop, especially without position on one of the Vs.

If the 7 were a 6 it's probably a close shove.

With the 7 easy fold.

Valid.
I sometimes do it in spots like this (ie vs not great/not terrible villains not very deep) just out of boredom or cuz the opportunity to do so presents itself so rarely. Precision has never been one of my strong suits. Its just "Oh! single-raised pot, 2nd to act 3way, right texture, high enough possibility I'll get semibluff c/r'ed if i cbet, lets try a nonstandard line". More about breaking monotony than anything else. I do still feel I can take that line and be +ev in this kind of spot (maybe not most +ev, but like I said: boredom boredom), so for me it would still be an option w/ these stacks/v's. Just cuz i have an affinity for it as a monotony-breaker

Easy fold, as has been said above.

Against the possible made hands: Sets, Two-pair and the Straight we are behind.


If Villain is raising the draws/combo-draws they have good equity against Hero's one-pair hand.

grunch

i think this is a fold given hes playing up with a shortstack, and also the fact that even the part of his range that you beat youre probably not very far ahead of.

*Grunch*

IMO This is a fold. He could've easily flopped 2p, set, straight, and some combo draws. Also you mentioned villain is a decent player, and your playing TAG. I'm sure he labeled you as a TAG and is thinking "Yes this idiot has Aces and cannot fold!"