Hero TAG. Running pretty bad and down 1k in 3 hours. Stack 1.3k
Villain tight ABC reg. Stack 800

Hero raises in mp 20 with A7, villain calls otb, passive rec in bb calls.
Flop (62) AJ3
bb checks, hero checks, villain bets 25, only hero calls.
Turn (112) AJ33
check check
River (112) AJ335
hero checks, villain bets 60, hero x/r 200

He will probably call saying your line doesn't make sense. You checked the flop, turn and river.

Meh. This will work sometimes as long as you don't do it very often. If you get known for raising obvious chops then your raises will get called. The thing about these chop bluffs is that if you are doing it right you will be chopping most of the time when called and it doesn't really cost you anything.

The key consideration for profitability is how often does villain actually have you beat? Given the board and play of the hand the only thing that beat you is villain backing into clubs and villain trapping on the turn with a boat. Neither hand is likely but you will have to judge how often.

My feeling is that you will get called a good portion of the time if villain is making the same calculation you are on hand ranges. But it doesn't really cost you anything to try as long as you are correct in judging that villain almost never has you beat.

When you're running bad, this is a bluff you should normally avoid. People will call just because you're running bad. If the villain is thinking, your line makes no sense and will call.

off topic but you're HH's are spot on in terms of presentation and will get a lot more responses when they're written out this way I can assure you

This. (When you are running bad, bluffing is generally a bad idea.)

haha thanks

I just thought that AP villain rarely has a better hand so I think we are chopping with Ax a lot. I agree that my line doesnt make too much sense but I also dont see any pure bluffs I could have here when I x/c otf.

What do you think about the line with a neutral image?

It's very hard for me to think of a hand I'm playing this way as villain. But I think the hands we're chopping with are usually just checking back on this board a lot in a 2/5 game but I could be wrong. I don't think c/r people off chops should really be part of our overall game plan anyway at these stakes. Much better/easier ways to make money in these games.

You'll get the occasional fold. Just as often, you'll run into someone who has the FH and bet small because they were trying to entice a flush or TP to call. Overall, I believe it is -EV play in this situation. If you wanted to bluff, you should have bet out first.

The question isn’t if you play that line with any bluffs but if villain thinks you do.

The only thing we know is that he knows you’re not winning many hands. People tend to call against players who don’t win hands and fold against players who do win hands.

Maybe he thinks you might have KQ or small hearts?

I prefer calling river. I don't see why you wouldn't have natural river bluffs, though. You have busted hearts, broadways and weaker pairs that can't call. Just pick combos out of those with good blockers.

In a vacuum against tight ABC reg I actually like it, as long as you are locked-in on the likelihood that he is jerking-off betting Ax. I think you needed to make it 300 to create a true pain point. Overall, I mean, calling is likely better, but fk this reg, 300, then show the 7d when he btch-mucks. He probably has AQ and is folding, probably folds AJ too if he doesn't have the Jc (not that he's gonna get that deep into a process) eh, don't show him the 7d, just let him stew.

Hate it, your value range is practically non-existent and you have a **** ton of great bluff options to pick from that don't actually have a lot of showdown equity. Something like KcJx would work far far better and you don't need to pick a lot of bluffs to balance out what few value hands you actually have.

Just saw that I forgot to post results.

Villain called with AQss

I would bet with flushdraws and all other draws otf most of the time to have the initiative. Jx Im only calling ott again with Jxcc. Thats why I dont see many bluffs I could have taking this line.

There wasn't even a bet on the turn.

All your Jx make it to river with this line, they would be natural bluff combos, I guess. Jx didn’t call a turn bet, since turn checked around.

KQ sometimes checks flop, and when it does it always calls the flop bet, and should always check turn and usually check river.

You shouldn’t necessarily be betting all your front door flush draws, though I can understand why you would. I like to check back some heart draws on this board, since it leaves me protected if I check/call flop and a heart hits on turn.

ya ur right I thought we x/c ott