Game is ok 2/5 game. Villain is the second best player at the table. He’s reasonably tight, will 3-bet (even 4-bet) PF and can barrel off in some scenarios with air. Will miss value sometimes on the river but in general has a clue and I think he’s a winner in the game. He respects me, thinks I’m tight/aggro and knows I’m a winner. Not sure if he knows how much I barrel off but I’m sure he thinks I can run bluffs.

We both have around 1k.

Folds to him OTB and he makes it 15, SB folds and I call in the BB with QJo.

Flop is QT8tt (none of my suit).

I check, he checks behind.

Turn is an 8, second flush draw comes. I check, he bets 50, I call.

River Q, flushes miss.

I check.

Calling turn seems iffy. In my experience people who meet flop check-backs with overbets tend to be unbalanced toward value (even though they can be bluffing).

I might bet small on the river hoping for a loose call or even raise.

preflop I mix flats and 3-bets

AP flop check and turn c/c are fine

River overbet polarized range and hope he bluff catches a suspected missed FD/SD

Preflop: Good. There's no sense in jambing it up OOP pre with q high against a guy capable of bluffing.

Flop: Good.

Turn: Bet $20. Your hand is strong and there are lots of worse made hands and draws that will call you. As played, I slightly prefer check/calling to check/folding. There's a decent chance he's bluffing when he overbets and you do have a strong hand h/u. This outweighs the fact that there are lots of gross river cards (and no perfect ones) that can cause you to check/fold the river after calling here.

River: As played I like the check. If he was bluffing or semi-bluffing the turn he'll likely keep firing if you check, but fold if you bet.

Just my opinion...

Seems standard. Villain dependent on turn, but once he checks flop, there aren’t many bets you can’t call vs most players with top pair. KQ is about the only hand he might play like that you are losing to on the turn?

I actually think it’s highly unlikely we are going to induce a bet on this river by checking. If Villain was semi-bluffing turn, then when he sees us call an overbet he’s going to assume we’re not folding on that card that shouldn’t have changed much.

I agree with this. I think we have to bet the river here. Him making a bluff on that river card would be a big mistake that I don't think a winning player would make.

Make a value bet here on the river. We have no bluffs on a double-paired board with bricked flush draws. If we offer him 2-1, he has to cry call with his KK and AA. But he cannot bet them, since H has all the 8x in range. Checking accomplishes nothing I fear.

Bet turn, value bet river. If he thinks you can run bluffs, then make him think by betting; he'll likely call you light, if you know him well and size it right.

His overbet on turn is repping trips or a draw, so check raise river

Villain would probably check back 8X though.

In general as Villain I would expect Hero to mostly probe turn with Qx, so I would value bet 8s full. Lots of stuff can bluff catch

Hand is fine. Bet river. Would be criminal for it to check through.

c/c ainec

We're kinda turning our hand face up almost by donking out there, he's one of the best players at the table let him fire away with air like it says he does in his desc then

X/C with second boat OTR?

Shirley, you must be joking.

Donking out on QQ88T when villain sees hero as tight is telling him hero has a queen.

The villain "can barrel off in some scenarios with air", and this is a situation when he tried to steal the blinds for 3x and he knows ppl can be calling light so I would check and let him continue barreling.

I checked with the intention of calling all but the smallest bets, I should have been clear, apologies.

What? You are folding to a small bet but calling all big bets?

Do you put him squarely on QT (or 88) and think a small bet is for value and a big bet is a bluff?

Villain thinks we are tight/aggro and can run bluffs, yet we check top pair on flop and turn? Leading the river is great because it looks like a bluff on what should be a scary card to V (who also checked flop, so probably doesn't have a Q).

Granted, if we bet river and V raises, it would be pretty sick.

I didn't say lead out. I implied the X/R.

Ok my bad I thought you were questioning the initial check. And yeah I said c/c assuming the bet was gonna be big or all in, I didn't realize stacks are still deep but does it really make sense to raise though anyway? We do lose to some hands in his range and he's only calling with them anyway but if you think he calls with an 8 then go for it.

We might get a hero call from his JJ/99 and bluff catchers like Tx, if he believes we're capable of making moves. The only problem is what he perceives our bluffs to be in this spot. We could X/R bluff with AJ/KJ/97 or hands with some SDV that we turn into bluffs like AK/AT/KT/JT (but we shouldn't be turning these into bluffs anyway, because we want our opponent to be having the Tx hands).

If we read him for an 8, we could exploit him and raise bigger.

No, I would raise if he bet out something like 30. If he bombs I was planning on calling.

Yeah but it all comes back to that guy's read and if he's considered one of the best players at the table, is he really calling a c/r with an 8 then?

Obviously this is variable based on opponent, board and hand reading from prior action; but as a general rule, people are more inclined to bluff catch than bluff on the river. So all things being equal if I’m debating between fat value betting or checking to induce, I usually bet.