Hi all,

2/5. V unknown grinder-looking type. 30 y/o WG. Pretty standard vpip. He opens UTG+1 in straddled pot to $35 and hero calls SB red 55. HU $750 eff.

Flop ($80): Qh-3s-4d. Hero x/c $30.

Turn ($140): 6h. Hero x/c $80 figuring he is getting right price factoring in implied odds should he hit his straight or set.

River ($300): 5s. Hero leads $125, since we now beat all reasonable Qx and OPs, plus we should theoretically have more straights than V. We also block 57 which was the nuts ott.

V thinks, looks at hero, and raises within 10 seconds to $425. Hero asks to see one card and V doesn’t say anything. As hero is tanking for a few minutes he just sits patiently with his hand on his chin staring at the board. He seems comfortable.

Thinking about what 7x he has raising from EP that double barrels and raises river it’s just A7hh and maybe 78hh. He’s repping kinda thin here unless he thinks I’m blocker betting Qx against his OP and is raising for (super thin) value. But it’s 2/5 and river raises should not be taken lightly. And he seems pretty comfortable like I said....

Thanks,
DT

Fold pre, raise turn to $250, x-c river - I have no idea why we'd ever lead here. Idk, probably fold river AP, but I'm never taking that line - probably not a humungous difference between calling and folding

The reason for leading river for this sizing (about 1/2 pot) is to get value from Qx and OPs....

So UTG straddled for $10? and then this guy only raises to $35?
Can you talk about what villains raise sizes have been PF, and what they have meant?

There’s nothing remarkable about this raise size. V doesn’t have a sizing tell as far as I know.

I think this is a call and I agree with your assessment.

One thing to keep is mind in that 78hh will be tempted to go huge on a river raise to punish 7x, but his raise size is fairly tame. This could definitely be A7hh though.

Your river bet is pretty small and looks like a blocker bet so I wouldn't be surprised if he attacked it. He's probably expecting your river donking range to be 67, 77, or air and that range should be sizing up.

Definitely a tough spot and I don't love calling. His bluff range is narrow too - only a couple combos of suited broadways. However 55 is one of your best holdings here after 3 combos of 77 and 3 combos of 67s.

Am I the only one who thinks villain showed up weird with 7s and backed his way into the straight?

That's debatable/unknown whether villain is even calling with Qx, OP's, and we have a damn good bluff catcher.

Okay, so in that case I am going to say this should be a lay down PF. You are getting right implied odds for a set-mine (22-1), but you will only get paid if Villain has a big hand, or if other opponents join the pot. There is not enough info to suggest that Villain has a monster hand.

Also, you are in the SB, so you are OOP. If you were on the BTN I think this would be a correct call, because you can look to float flops and steal the pot on later streets, giving you another way to win besides flopping a set. But OOP that's way too hard to do... as we can see from what happens next.

AP he bets $30 into a pot of $80, on a dry board that favours his range over yours. He would probably make this bet with 100% of his range, so now you are in a guessing game, OOP, with a hand that is going to struggle to improve, and face a lot of bad turn and river cards. Fold flop.

The 6 on the turn is one of the best cards you could hope to see. The fact that he fires another bet narrows his range, so I think you are behind AA, KK, Qx, or about even against suited broadways with two hearts. But you are getting the right odds to call, and now you have to continue.

5 is one of the best cards you could hope to see. Your bet of $125 looks like a blocking bet that you might make with a hand like QJ. So I think you have to call the shove from Villain.

Regardless of the result, I think you played this hand badly PF and on the Flop. Once you called the flop bet, the rest of the hand played itself.

As played, I'd fold. Given the hand configuration V hand doesn't looks like 7X, instead QQ/66.

Pre - fold HU oop.
Flop - fold, behind to 66+, few good turn cards.

I don't hate a lead but the size should be bigger. AP I just fold thinking nobody has the balls to bluff raise this board and your line. Unfortunately your blocking bet looks weak which is why it's much tougher decision than it had to be. A river lead like this should be polarizing more often than not unless you want a crying call from a station.

@Samo: I peeled flop since I was still ahead of his many combos of AK (some AJ) that were taking a cheap stab ($30 into $85), usually real hand strength reveals itself ott.

Why fold a pp pre against an unknown grinder type who is more likely to have a big hand and pay off when we hit? And who knows for sure it's going to be HU? The BB and straddler still have to act.

And even sets would be hard pressed to raise this river on a 4-liner.

I look at it from a combo standpoint. If we give him 16 combos of AK and 4 of AJs, that's 20. There are 36 combos of JJ-66, besides the nutty part of his range.

I probably fold because I cant figure out what he is turning into a bluff here, unless its a complete airball and he is spazzing this hand. It seems like a spot where even a good GTO pro would have a hard time finding balance.

Even if he is starting to merge by raising QQ/66 here, you still lose.