Villain: Pretty standard live player. Bets too small, calls too much, and drinking. However he isn't a complete station. Hasn't stacked off in 2 hours at the table. On occasion he has decided to call down aggressive players regardless of board texture.

Hero: Playing more straight forward than usual due to table dynamics. Has been tight and overlimping a lot instead of the the usual assault of large isolation raises from LP. Unfortunately, a drunk reg mentions the oddity and unintentionally informs the table of the hero's usual nature.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Limped pot. Hero IP with 55

Flop 985 (pot 35)
Villain bets 30, everyone folds, hero raises to 100, villain calls.

Turn Q (pot 235)
Villain check, hero bets 200, villain calls.

River K (pot 635)
Villain check, hero...?

Both hero and villain have about 550 behind.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is there any value in shoving the river or will it turn my hand into a bluff? What worse hands call?

Busted FDs won't. I don't think villain has a straight here because you've shown interest and he could easily get it in on turn to protect from fd also. He might have 2p like 98, so I think if you check back you lose in the long run. Also if he doesn't stack off light I'm inclined to bet in the 275 area

I don't think you will get called if you shove
Obv, FD aren't calling anything and any straight (i.e. 6-7, or 10-J) would have raised on turn or would LEAD this river
So, he's got 2pair here and would look you up with a $250 bet, but would fold to a shove putting you on a LOL K-9

I would bet $200. Are we bet-folding?

No we are not bet folding lmfao. Just check behind then

I wouldn't...I'm pretty sure were good here

Really hard to put villain on a straight here. I think the value bet is the best option and hope to get a call from a fairly possible two pair.

1/2 his stack at the most. Hands that could call shove are prob leading into u OTR. I think I like $200.

he might get stacks in with 2pr, no?

I don't see how a bet of $200-$300 is a viable option. If we take the same line with Axs or a similar draw are we bluffing $200-$300 after we miss? We can't possibly bet/fold in that situation, and never firing is really weak.

Are we also taking the same line if we flopped or turned a straight? Leaving our opponent with 15%-25% of his chips when we have the nuts is terrible. We need to play for stacks with the nuts, which automatically means we have to do the same when we bluff (rep the nuts).

tl;dr - We can't bet less than AI because it unbalances the rest of our range and gives away information regarding the strength of future hands.

dont worry about balancing in 2/5. dont worry about balancing in general unless you play with somebody ALOT. nobody is going to exploit you betting lesss than AI here.

i bet $245 here

i would check or shove here (rather than betting some amount less than all-in) but not because i wanna balance but because hands that call 1/2 the remaining stacks also call a shove, with the pot size relative to the stacks being what it is.

i find most times when i make a river value bet that leaves like some small portion of my initial stack behind, if i get called, usually the villain flips over something that makes me think i missed value by not shoving.

I agree that its unlikely he plays a straight or overset this way so assume u have the best hand. If he has fd, it doesn't matter what u do. So u need to go for vale from 2pr hands like 98, Q9, and K9. If he is the type to put u on a bluff with a big bet then ship the river. If he is the type that will get scared by big bet, I'd bet about 250 for value.

Unless u are playing with same group of players almost daily I wouldn't worry about this level of rangebalancing. Most 2-5 players I see aren't paying enough attention and the ones that are generally don't have a big enough sample size to form good conclusions.

Here's how I see it:

1) You want three streets of maximum value in this spot.
2) Shoving is only optimal if your villain is calling you more than 1 out of 3 times
3) Balance is a consideration but points 1 and 2 are far more important to overlook

FWIW, your line looks very strong and can be used by your bluffs/missed draws.

Also, most LLSNL players look at the absolute $$ value of your bet, rather than in relation to the pot size.

shove

This may not be true psychologically - people react to the statement of "all-in" differently then they react to a number.

Who really cares about strength of future hands? We are playing 2/5 NL here against a standard live player who's drinking. These players don't remember one hand from another at these stakes.

While it probably doesn't have a huge effect on the hand, villain's position and the preflop action could give us a little more info here. Ie, did villain check in the BB or did he open limp UTG or did he overlimp from MP?

You may be right, but I intend to play 5/10 someday and bad habits are hard to break. I progressed as an online player by developing strategies capable of beating the next level, and I intend to do the same as a live player.

He overlimped UTG+1. I can tell you his hand if you want, but I don't want to be results oriented. I actually wish he never showed me because it is making it difficult for me to figure out the correct unbiased answer.

Bet 250

If I was villian and you took a bit and shoved theres pretty good reason to put you on a missed FD. 250 looks like a value bet and might get a 2-pair type hand to fold. Plus decently smart player drinking=confidence. Ship it and hope he makes what is essentially a hero call with two pair.

yes. and i think for the most part they react the way we want. in spots like this, there are 3 possibilities:

1) villain has a strong hand he isn't folding regardless. villain calls
2) villain has a pretty good hand that he could fold sometimes but call sometimes, depending on the bet
3) villain has a hand he won't put more money in with

out bet sizing only affects (2), even though i think most of villain's range here probably fits into (1).

if we are looking at case (2), villain is more likely to look us up if we tank/shove than if we bet like 1/2 pot and leave some weird $120 behind or something. it looks like we want a call. who bluffs 80% of their stack. if it's a third barrel you're gonna fire the whole thing.

so when the pot is close to or larger than EFF stacks on the river, if i'm betting it's usually a shove, except in unique circumstances. if i were firing a 3rd barrel (which i don't even know if i've ever fired an all-in 3rd barrel at $1/2) it would probably also be a shove against most villains.

Most of the 2/5 players i play with would lead out on the river with a str8. A shove would probably fold TT and JJ but would get called by 2P. Ive only run across a few who would ck/call 3 streets with a monster and you havn't promoted the table image to promote this line.
I would shove the river

i'm guessing villian has a 1 pair missed flush/straight draw type hand. He likely wouldn't call a shove but given his calling station tendencies I'd bet something like 275 and hope he calls again. I agree that most 2/5 players will lead out a straight or check raise one on the flop/turn.

i was gonna say without reading the hand that yes there is value in shoving a set on the river (coordinated board). after reading the hand my statement still holds.