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2/5 value bet river A? 2/5 value bet river A?

09-08-2015 , 07:54 AM
2/5 game which is pretty standard. 20-25 dollar raises, 3! 3-4 times an orbit. Most stacks over 1000.

Villain(1100) - Older leather butt. Played with him a few days earlier at same casino. Decent player but ABC. Knows he isn't the strongest player so stays out of the way a lot of times. Over plays TPTK and hard to let go of AA-QQ.

Hero(1650) - Early 30s winning local player, knows most of the table. Left for the bathroom before his BB and comes back in MP and posts.

OTTH

Hero in MP posts 5. UTG limps, Hero Q 7 checks, HJ and CO both call and Villain in BB checks.

Flop (25) Q 7 3

Checks to hero who leads for 20. (Easily expect a raise from 2/4 other players in the hand that are very capable in position trying to squeeze my Cbet) 1 call from HJ
Villain from BB makes it 50,
Hero raises to 135. all fold to Villain flats. (Flush draw yeah?)

Turn(300) 4

Villain checks Hero bets 220 (figuring its still large sizing to make a draw pay and stack size pot for river action.)
Villain snap calls. Not getting the correct price for flush draw but feel he is willing to gamble with maybe A high draw.

River (740) A

Villain checks. Normally I check behind here and make him show first with my 2pair not risking if someone came over the top. But with the A hitting all of his nut flush range I feel I have to bet. Not sure to fire away or just check behind.
2/5 value bet river A? Quote
09-08-2015 , 08:18 AM
You can get value from a NFD that missed but you're losing to AQ. How possible is it that he has AQ here, given how he played it? If he over plays TPTK type hands, does that mean he's the aggressor or that he calls big bets, like the turn bet? If he has NFD that missed,it could be A7, too.
I don't mind a value bet here but if he c/r, are you going to fold? Not suggesting that you should or should not, but I don't want blown off this hand and don't want to call down my stack so I might just check it back.
2/5 value bet river A? Quote
09-08-2015 , 08:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchstreetfish
You can get value from a NFD that missed but you're losing to AQ. How possible is it that he has AQ here, given how he played it? If he over plays TPTK type hands, does that mean he's the aggressor or that he calls big bets, like the turn bet? If he has NFD that missed,it could be A7, too.
I don't mind a value bet here but if he c/r, are you going to fold? Not suggesting that you should or should not, but I don't want blown off this hand and don't want to call down my stack so I might just check it back.
Yeah that's exactly what was going through my mind, but at the same time I felt any Ax that doesn't hit 2 pair he is 90% of the time paying me off with a well sized river bet.
2/5 value bet river A? Quote
09-08-2015 , 09:13 AM
How often does he have AQ and not lead river?

This is a value bet all day. Checking back in this kind of spot is losing a boatload of value.

The described villain is approximately never check raising worse so that is just an easy fold the 1% of the time it happens.
2/5 value bet river A? Quote
09-08-2015 , 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy
How often does he have AQ and not lead river?

This is a value bet all day. Checking back in this kind of spot is losing a boatload of value.

The described villain is approximately never check raising worse so that is just an easy fold the 1% of the time it happens.
Agreed 100%
Spoiler:
I figure I have to bet there everytime with villains range holding an ace. Villain had A 4 and didn't raise me just called 280. When he called I thought I was good 100% of the time. Gross bad beat. Should have stayed in the bathroom 10 seconds longer :P
2/5 value bet river A? Quote

      
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