Hero - 60 yr old TAG(2/5 reg)
main villain - hispanic mid 30s reg(not much history he plays more 5/10) limited reads - seems to like to see a lot of cheap flops but seems quite solid post and from another players offhand comments earlier I get the impression he is capable of big laydowns

eff stacks about $1200

on to the hand

UTG limps, Hero raises to 25 with 2 red aces, Villain calls from MP as does one other from LP, limper calls

Flop Kc9h7c (105)

check, Hero bets 75, Vil flats others fold

Turn As (255)

hero bets 125, vil min raises to 250, hero ???

Going to be tough to get any more action from him unless he has a set, AK, or a big draw, but calling here makes the river play really awkward since you are OOP.

I probably re-pop to $500 and hope he has a big hand. planning to jam most rivers if he calls.

Dear god, what a juicey spot.

The thing I love most about LLSNL is that players almost NEVER make a min-raise without being monster. They rarely if ever play back at you with a bluff in this spot. So the question isn't whether we should raise or not, the question simply is how much should we raise?

The good news is, we are in a spot where getting V to call almost "any" raise means he will be forced to play for stacks on the river with pretty much 100% of his turn calling range. So in these spots we need to be mindful that our objective is to get him to call moreso than it is to get stacks in on the turn. Because once he calls, pot is going to be double eff stacks behind and he will be forced to call a river shove with anything that was strong enough to raise turn with.

So, raise to $500 to $550-ish.

V calls and pot is now $1355 and eff stacks behind will be $550-ish behind and he has to call a river shove. Plus, a raise to $500 allows him to jam over the top of us on turn.

So yeah, super easy raise. $500-ish

Im behind dgi's post.

If he can fold when we click it back then he's a god.

what do we think the Villain's range of hands is here (Axcc, A7, A9...??...) and are there any cards to come that we would fold to after making it $500 OTT?

Weird spot, but I agree with the field min raise feels like the only thing possible. Big raise he is folding the majority of the time and calling sets him up for a river fold. If he folds to your raise then he was bluffing.. and if he has a combo draw then that's the only thing we are preventing. Does anyone think we jam to prevent combos or are we losing value vs 2ps sets?

Im currently playing or I would figure the math out. That and I don't know what we his complete range is

At this point you want combos to call. The best combo, T8cc, has about a 27% chance of hitting on the river, but the villain would have most likely raised that on the flop. The only draw I can see raising here would be A9cc, I think Axcc would just flat. Now I believe that the villain's value range here would be KK (There is a very good chance he would have 3b preflop, but smooth calling can be in his playbook), 99, 77, AK (unlikely with 2 aces locked up), A9cc, A9, and A7. With only an ace left most likely KK, 99, and 77. You played your hand strong and although that ace can be a good bluff card for you the board is pretty wet for you to even make a cbet bluff in the first place let alone 2 barreling so because of that his bluffing frequency in this spot is very very low.

A9 and A7 are the only hands I can see folding to a shove. I like dgiharris' line of raising $500-$550 and then shoving on non club rivers if he flats. All that being said I would have liked to see a bet of about $175 on the turn instead of giving him 3-1.

$525

A min click ott is usually nutted.

Also try to get to $30 pre.

and like 175 on the turn

Ok there seems to be a general consensus that a non all-in reraise is correct and that is what I did(after tanking for about a minute). The time was not taken in deciding whether or not to raise but rather on how to size it. I eventually reraised him $400(to $650 total). The speed of what then happened kinda shocked and disappointed me. He immediately muttered to himself "you must have a set of aces or maybe kings" and then quickly mucked his hand, claiming he folded a set of nines. He then went for about a 20 min walk. I guess if I just flatted and then checked the river I could have have at least gotten a smallish river bet out of him but I didn't want to let him have a totally free card if he had a combo draw. I suppose I'm not shocked that he was capable of folding the third nuts as much as the ease with which he did it.

its unlikely a villain will fold in that situation too often

its rare if ever

nh, well played

You made your raise tOo big.

"Hero 60 year old tag". Sizing is so key in many factors. Min 3bet postflop should be a standard bet sizing for you.

ya I thought about that a lot, but I felt that a min reraise neither charges his draws or misleads him about my strength sufficiently

Raise folding 3rd nuts is either terrible or your image is wayyyyy more TAG then you think. Prob a combo of both

+1

All-in. (NH and WP)

This.

Villain is representing a very tight range. There is now $630 in the pot after Villain's turn raise. At that point villain now has $850 left. A pot-sized reraise in this spot would be $880. So just shove. Does villain really have hands in his range that he would call a click back with ($500) but fold to a shove ($850)? I doubt it.

Yea it's close between a small reraise to about 550ish and a jam. Depends on the player.

If he's your standard donk who isn't really a thinking player who will call the small rereaise without thinking much because it's small then a small reraise is fine. Especially if he seems kind of scared money. Commits him with some of his weaker holdings I guess in case he has some random two pair or something that he might hero fold to a big bet.

On the flip side if he's a thinking player, even a really bad thinking player, a 4bet minraise looks 100% like the stone cold nuts. You probably aren't doing that with AK, 77, combo draw, random bluff. Even bad thinking players kind of know that. Not the range part, but know you aren't even bluffing/semi bluffing/doing that with a not nutted hand. At least in villians mind you might shove with those hands, but never ever pretty much click it back to 550ish.

I see bad but thinking players make hero folds all the time to nitty players who do things like 4bet minraise which just screams the nuts.

So I actually think a small reraise and a shove is pretty close and really dependent on things OP didn't tell us about villain. Like does he seem like scared money, is he a thinking player ( even fish can be thinking players ) etc.

These little delicate details and distinctions are really important and are why paying close attention to the table is critical.

Also next time don't post results so quick ;x

Just read the results. IMHO if you flat the turn you are still OOP OTR. There is no chance you are getting any more chips OTR from this villain. There is no river card that can come that will feel V comfortable to bet into you OTR after you flat the turn (except maybe another A?). Min-raise is the same here as shoving (i.e. if he is calling your min-raise he is calling your shove) and shoving makes you a bigger pot and forces him to make a bigger mistake. Calling doesn't do c**p but give him more info. I wouldn't feel bad at all that he folded.

3b the turn, he has a big hand or a.draw so get it in

I'd go to 500

Either you are perceived as a nit/he soul read you or he's full of Sh*t.
I opt for the last one
OT: I raise 450 for him to shove

Call, then lead out on river

No reason to get cute here... Raise to 515 after a two minute tank... Tank river even longer... And announce to the dealer I'm all in