Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltn'noob
I like this. Dont think I considered it in game. EP raiser is tight, stationy female, so I might have gotten 2 or more callers. ...
Very doubtful. EP raised $20, they just called. If they had a real hand they would have raised to iso. So when you pop it to $120, they are almost never calling. They will hem-n-haw, look at their cards several times, flick them, then shrug fold because that is just too big a bet for them to call. Most rec players have a very firm threshold of pain for calling preflop action. Usually they can call around 4bb - 8bb to chase or set mine. Anything beyond that, and they just are never calling, unless they are short stacked and have like 12bb. Otherwise, trust me, it's super rare to get a call from anyone else when action goes like this.
Trust me, I squeeze all the time so I know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltn'noob
....so I might have gotten 2 or more callers. [/B] We x/f this flop into 2 or more ppl, or are you still leading?
In the rare event we get 2 callers (to include the EP), then yes, I'm still leading out $150 on 100% of all flops. If for some super strange reason we pick up 3-callers, then I will lead out only on non Ace non King boards.
Lets look at the math.
Pot is $100 when action gets to us, we 3-bet to $120, 2 callers,
pot = $420
If we lead out $150, our villains need to fold 27% of the time for our lead out to be +EV.
against 3 callers pot is $540 and we only need villains to fold 21% of the time...
Even though a bet of $150 into such big pots is weak, most rec fish don't think that way. They only look at the size of the bet and to them a $150 bet is a "strong" bet. So they will fold if they whiff or if they have pockets and their are overs on the board. But again, based on the preflop action, the only player who can realistically call is the EP raiser. We pick up another caller less than 5% of the time...
Last edited by dgiharris; 05-01-2014 at 08:25 PM.