2/5 nlhe in casino

H: 40s. Look like rec player/businessman. Table seen H coolered a few times. Been absolutely card dead except for those coolers, so likely look nit, but table also might think h is steaming.

V: 50s semi-omc/reg looking. Only been at table for a few rounds (he's seen me coolered in nearly exact hand as below and saw me call tough river bet to lose). I saw one hand where he check called flop inside straight/back door FD , then check call nut straight/nfd turn and bombed river when he hit straight, against a nit female V.

Eff 600

H mp raises 20 with 79ss. 4 callers including v in bb.

7x7c8c

Checks to h, bets 75. All folds, v calls. H puts V on draw.

7x7c8cJs

V bets 125. H calls. V looked very confident. Felt value-ish.

7x7c8cJs4x

V bets 250. Sitsquiet and stares forward. H tanks, stares down V without a saying anything and V looks at H and says "what did you say" somewhat shaky. V Appeared a touch nervous but was a very thin read.

H?

fold

why do you put him only on a draw? wouldn't he play 88 like that?

fold pre

Sorry. Also put v on flop less likely 88-JJ. Just felt most likely a draw because he didn't look too strong on call. But of course, yes the absolute nuts otf would likely be played that way.

I know I get the most nervous and shaky the bigger my hand is. If I was shaking I probably had 88, JJ or 87. Obviously T9 beats you as well plus T7, J7, Q7, K7, A7, 44 and 65. Incidentally Villain could easily play 76 or 75 the same way (hands you outkick).

Typically I prefer to fold the turn if I think I'm beat rather than calling and waiting until the river, but you did have draws against a number of hands that beat you (9 to fill-up, 10 for the straight).

So let's just focus on the river: Pot size is $750 and you have to call $250. Villain bet half the pot when you had only $380 behind on a $500 pot. The fact that he "leaves you" with $130 screams value. However, you only need to be good over 33.3% of the time to justify a crying call here so let's look at his ranges:

**Hands you beat**
Missed Flush draw bluffs that don't reraise pre: A2c - AJc, K2-KJc, Q9c-QJc, J9-JTc, 64c, 53-54c, 43c (25 combos)
Pure bluffs ?? (Was he the last caller on the flop? If not, I have a really hard time putting on a pure bluff, were the other 3 callers all between you and the BB?)
67 / 75 (8 combos)

Total: 33 combos

**Hands that you beat you**
88, JJ or 87 (9 combos)
T9 or 65 (28 combos)
T7, J7, Q7, K7, A7 (20 combos)

Total: 57 combos

**Hands that you tie **
97 (3 combos)


Not including pure bluffs, 57 to 33 combos against you (1.7 to 1) while you are getting 3 to 1 on a call.

The ways you can easily justify a call are therefore:
- If you can see him playing a flush draw this way.
- If you can put him other hands you beat like 99, TT, QQ (18 combos) or 8X, JX
- If you can see him making this play with a pure bluff (He didn't believe your $75 bet on a paired flop and called planning to take the pot away from you with a value line)

If he only plays this way with trips or better, then it's 41 (removed the hand 65) to 8 combos against you (5.125 to 1) and a clear fold. It looks like the +EV point is where he plays at least his combo flush draws with this line. (his combo flush draws are 52% of them and include 13 out of the 25 possible hands such as JTc or 64c).

If he was the last to act on the flop, I'd definitely call because I could include pure bluffs and other strange hands in his range. If he was not the last to act I'd call if I could see him playing a flush draw this way. If you do see him playing flush draws this way, but not pure bluffs, you should have shoved the turn.

Edited: I forgot to take your 79s out of the deck when counting combos and your 7 blocked half of his possible combos that included a 7.

omc's love to slow play and "look" week, shrug their sholders before placing in bets, etc. it could be a reverse tell sometimes. However when he looked nervous on the river, that could be because he has a strong hand.

Agree of those tendencies for omc's. But he didn't shrug or anything so obvious. Just the way he held himself (was a thin read). He looked as if he was trying to not give a read.

Thanks for all the analysis. I had so little info on V, that I was leaning more to made hands than bluffs, since I hadn't seen him make a single move (granted he had only been at table for a short time).

Losing image=fold pre with 79s.

As played, it's a pretty gross spot. I probably level myself into a call. (Odds are this guy has 9/10 and is playing straight forward). If you lose this hand, then table change, meal break, or just quit the game. Playing at a table with a losing image is -EV. People will start playing back at you, and you won't be able to generate any FE.

GL

So was he last to act on the flop? Many experienced poker players know that uncoordinated paired boards are the best to flop on because it's less likely that their opponent connected. Of course this one had straight and flush draws. One question you have to ask is - what hand is the Villain putting me on? Often they put you on AK when you raise pre-flop and play accordingly.

When he lead out with a value size bet on the river this confirms he has us beat. Any OMC 7 with less than an ace kicker and non FH hands would have checked the river to us (most of the time, of course)

If I could learn to fold my good/big hands when I know I'm beat (or there is a very good chance and most signs lead to it), I'd win a lot more!

Preach it.

I ended up folding, and showed the 7. V didn't show. Table couldn't decide what V had, and everyone just said "tough fold". Later, V said he had pocket 8s, fwiw.

Since that hand, I've watched him play super nitty for hours. Had I known this before, I would have insta-folded the original hand.

Never show if you are making a big fold, never ever. Show the 9 and and don't say anything if you want to show a card. Has to be a good fold in a vacuum vs this type of opponent; I mean it's lolive poker.

Yeah I agree with everyone else.

I'm folding river against described villian.