2-5 effective 700.
Hero UTG+1 QQhd raise to 20, MP LAG calls. BB random calls.
3 ways.
(62) Flop Q73sch
Check. Hero bets 30, MP LAG calls. BB folds.
(122) Turn 2d
Hero bets 60?

The villain in this hand has been playing very loose, and has recently lost some big pots. Hero has been playing TAG.

I’m pretty sure that villain is floating with air on the flop (we hold all the queens). It’s also possible that villain could have 77 or 33 but given his image I think he would be more likely to raise these hands otf.
If we check the turn, villain will likely take a stab, but after Hero calls it might be hard to get more money out of this villain... if we double barrel villain might double float, and we can c/r the river? Or he might even raise the turn bet. This is a bit ambitious tho, so do we settle for the $60 and check the turn, or do we try and get creative with a double barrel hoping to induce some crazy action?
If the turn goes check/check we could also v bet the river?
With this deep of stacks I usually like to go for the big play when I have a monster, but things are complicated by the fact that we hold all the good cards.
Any thoughts?



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I'd x/c turn and xrai river. Most, if not all, of the hands that villain will call turn and river, will bet. Plus checking allows villain to bluff.

If turn checks through, I'd bet 3/4 to pot on river.

There are 700 in effective stacks and on the turn there is only 122 in the pot.

Bet 80 into 122 and let him continue to call with stubborn A7, JJ, TT, 99, 88 etc he might even have 32 or 54 and decide to blast off. He can easily put us on AK or AQ firing a second barrel that can't withstand a raise.

I know we'll scare him away a lot with our bet and we could check and let him light $80 on fire a high percentage of the time. But we need to continue to set things up so that we can get $700 stacks in by the river.

Even in if we only succeed in getting his remaining $670 stack 1 in 5~6 times, my guess is that's still going to be more profitable than checking and picking up a bunch of 80 bets (if he has air or middling hands with showdown value he'll often bet once then go for showdown).

My river play is going to depend on reads and on the river card.

If effective stacks were $400 to start the hand, I think I prefer a check/call line given how dry this board looks.

I'm not convinced the V will bet turn if checked to with 44-66, 88-TT type hands. I'm willing to risk losing $60ish that we might get from a turn bluff by making sure we maximize against his value range, plus give him the chance to level himself into a spew raise.

I'm taking a b/b/b line here.

Plus for those who care about balance, we sure has hell better be b/b/b our flopped sets if we ever want to triple barrel bluff on a board this dry.

I doubt we get 3 streets vs 7x or 88-TT hands anyway. Plus betting folds out a lot of villain's air, which may bet when checked to.

As far as balance goes, you can check top set here and still have a balanced b/b/b range.

Villain isn't going to have much pure air here, his call on the flop was sandwiched between us and the other guy.

I think the problem with trap lines is that if we leave aside two pair and set type hands, where we're probably getting it in no matter what, it's really hard for villain to call a river x/r. So the value of that seems questionable. If he has something like 87s, checking could score us another bet, but after we check call our hand is kind of transparently a top pair+ hand trying to bait him (what else can it be?) and I think he checks it OTR.

I'd rather lead halfpot which can win in two ways - he can call again, or he can decide to launch a bluff. That latter scenario is the only way that I can see to win big money on the hand (other than villain having been oversetted or whatever), so I'd rather have some chance of scoring big than a somewhat improved chance of getting a single turn bet.

Have to fire flop, turn and river. No reason at all to think V will do it for you. Board doesn't hit him particularly hard, he wasn't the pre flop aggressor. b/b/b. 100% of the time.

I like the smallish 1/2 PSB on the flop. Price him into feeling committed w/ marginal holdings. On the turn I'm not bombing an overbet, but I like sizing up a little, maybe $85-95. 1/2 PSB actually looks milkly to me and, if V calls, will cost us money again on the river. I'd stay under $100 because $100 is a lot of money and might cause V to think not only about the $100 but the river bet he's also going to have to call. $85-90 might get a shrug call and set you up for a $225-250 river bet that gets called light. If he has a set he should be RR'ing you at some point and then GII becomes pretty easy.

Ok, 1st of all, there isn't $122 in the pot, there's the rake to take into account.

I bet 40% of a raked pot. I don't want folds. So, if pot is $116, I'm betting $45, $50 max. If I get a call, we have $206 in the pot. OTR we can bet anywhere from 50% & up depending on how confident our V[s] look. This is assuming they didn't light up when a str8 card came OTR.

IMO, Hero needs to play his hand like he would KQ/AQ.