V is a loose/passive megawhale, in that he's playing every hand to hit like it's PLO, won't bluff but loves to call a lot pre and on flop.

An orbit ago, Hero raised KK to 40 pre UTG and got 3 calls including V in BB. V check/called $100 on a 873hh board and check/folded on a 9s turn after Hero shoved for his remaining $350. V must've had some FD or TP/pair+sd type of hand.

Another hand, V checked a runner runner nut flush on a paired river in a 4-way $300 pot (trap or afraid of paired board) which is relevant to below hand.

OTTH

2/5, straddle 10

V limps UTG, Hero next to act raises $65 with QQ+, only V calls

Flop (147): J63scc
V checks, Hero bets 105, V calls

Turn (357): 7d
V checks, Hero bets 180, V calls

River (717): 9h
V checks, Hero ? (400 effective behind)

I feel like Vs range OTR is lots of big Jx and missed FDs mainly but I'm afraid he might have caught some weird 2p like 76s, J7s or J9s here (all of which are in his range). Although they're much more likely to raise earlier/bet river themselves, I had seen V check OTR with a nut flush vs 3 opponents in above hand.

However, the meta from my KK shove hand might encourage him to call my river bet lighter with TP as the FD bricked.

Then again, I don't know if Jx really calls a third street river shove for his whole stack when my line looks QQ+ a lot.

I could also bet $200 but it'd suck to fold to a check/shove, which would never ever ever be worse than 2p.

Honestly, J9s is the main hand I'm afraid of here as V likes to fastplay his big hands on draws boards. Although there's a 25% chance of some slowplayed hands vs me.

I think vs this type of player there are enough Jx combos that might sigh call our shove. I think a lot of his 2p+ hands would donk-shove the river, so I don't feel too vulnerable. We're 75bb deep vs. a station & SPR is 4.6


PS...

on the 873hh board, V couldn't have had a pair+sd. There need to be 3 connected cards or 2 connected+1 gap to make that possible.

Meh i just shove. Also given that we jammed in a different hand in a similar scenario, he might level himself and just call it off after FD bricks

You only have barely over a half psb. Just rip it in. If he's got it, he's got it. Checking is losing a lot of value

I meant after the turn brought a 9 and I shoved a little unhappily.

Shove.

Anyone else like going bigger OTT? ~$300 or so?

I'd go bigger OTT, but not $300, which leaves only $280 back. I think that's really going to telegraph that it's all going in on the river and shrink V's turn calling range too much.

But I think just slightly larger ($200 - $225) won't change his turn calling range at all, while making the river shove easier to call with $40 - $90 more in the pot and $20 - $25 less to call.

^ if you're bet/folding turn, isn't betting a little smaller like I did okay too? I felt like crossing the $200 threshold might psychologically deter V from calling, yeah I could go $190 but my plan was to b/f.

Grunch: shove

Flop can be bigger and turn must be bigger

I'd be more worried about sizing turn properly to commit V on the river rather than saving yourself $40-50 the times you have to b/f. If you sized turn better you wouldn't have a decision to make on the river.

As played, I shove. He might easily call w/ JX. If he checked (and called pre) with two pair, more power to him. If he's slow-playing a set, well done.

I'd lean toward a shove. However, if u think tilt will hit after he calls with 2-pr, then check back, perhaps "same bet" ($180).

Honestly, I'm not sure if I wanted to make it a three-street hand when I bet turn and got called. Not 100% sure if a bare Jx would go all the way.

Are we only thinking this way because of described V? And would/should check back river against others?

Its usually quite tricky actually bc:

1) people view bets in absolute terms. To all of us poker wizards its a standard half pot stuff, but to most live players its a huge bet and may not get called as often as we think.

2) people only think one street at a time (so when he calls turn he is not thinking at all about river bet)

The final really reliable read we can use is people in live poker are terrified of trapping on rivers. Sure they trap flops and even turns, but not rivers. They almost always donk jam if they hit or were trapping already. So when they check they are very often capped at one pair.

All of this said, we are back to the pesky #1 problem. People view bets in absolute terms and $400 is huge. Its way way bigger than $365.

Earlier this year I would have said your value jam isnt getting called by worse 50% of the time, which is what we need for it to be profitable. But after experimenting alot with over betting and large betting in general, I have been reminded just how huge people will station in live poker.

It's just hard for villain to have a better hand here and he should be leading rivers with his hard-to-have 2p+ if our default line is to x back rivers.

If he's folding Jx too often then we have an exploitabley large number of busted flush draw combos we can be shoving.

grunch;

I am betting the river not too big ($200) and expecting villain to get stick with AJ. Probably folding to a shove even with stack sizes as I don't think villain would think we fold an overpair so probably has something that has us beat.

This is a meta spot decision for me also though, I want to have thin value in my river bet range so I am not polarized to nuts or nothing and this seems like a good spot for it.