Everything is fine until the river i feel that most of the time you're not going to be good there with 109 this may be one of those spots because villain is a thinking player but i think u need to let go of hands like that on the river.

Results? Curious.

Result?

OP lots of people on this forum limp with Axs in EP. I personally don't think it's good but you need to include that in villain's range. Stuff like KJs/QJs are also possible, if less likely. Also it's weird that you give him T8s but not 97s.

On the river, since he's so unlikely to have pure air you need to question whether this relatively unknown tightish player is more likely to be capable of going for a turn c/r with a big hand or of turning a marginal 1pair hand into a bluff, because one of those things is probably happening in this hand. You've already seen him c/r you on the turn before.

Preflop and flop seem fine to me. I think I'd prefer you b/f the turn and check behind all rivers unless you think V is capable of folding a flush when the board pairs.

This may be a leak in my game though in that I don't like going for thin value bets (although I really can't see many worse hands that call you on the river if you'd have bet the turn anyway) when a flush comes in.

Why are we discounting Axs? This seems like a hand he could limp with looking to play a multiway pot. But after you raise, he calls because he is slightly ahead of your BU range and has position on a fish.

Grunch:

If we really believe Villain is the "best" opponent at the table, then this is a particularly bad flop for Hero. Really, you are not going to improve unless you hit another 9 or the two black T -- that's 4 outs if you need them.

The bet on the flop is fine. You might also check this through and see what happens. It would be a totally different flop if it was two instead of two and if it were not so freaking wet with the 54 there. There are so many hands that have strong draws here that have you completely crushed (15+ out draws or something like 65 would be great here).

Villains l/c range from UTG is probably pretty wide. You're never really going to know what his actions will mean. And since your hand is so vulnerable, there's really no point in going to war.

As played, c/f turn, c/f river.

So easy to just sit there and target the bad players.

Against the right opponents, I'm bluffing that 7 most of the time.

You're also on 2p2. You also wouldn't limp utg..... Point being:
Playing against llsnl'ers and thinking "we'll I wouldn't do that" as a way to define their range is suicide. I can probably count on my fingers the times I've seen someone play a hand and thought to myself "he played that really well, I would have done the same thing"

@op you're leveling yourself here. Which is pretty common.

Thanks for the discussion. I picked out these comments because they were spot on to my thinking in the hand. I felt like I made a mistake not betting the turn, but then on the river I am sitting there thinking is this a merge with a set or overpair that missed a turn check-raise? If he missed a turn check-raise would he lead the river with a flush? But whether my thinking is flawed or not - in the heat of the moment I just felt a flush was unlikely and if so, a Q is very unlikely. So then I am only losing to sets. It is much more likely the Q hit my hand.

I try to keep my comments in threads I start from giving away anything. I also try to stick to what I was thinking during the hand, not what I analyzed after the hand was through.

Anyhoo ~ villain showed down 88x. Hero scoops pot.

I think you are referring to the egoistic fallacy. Strangely I feel very comfortable vs. tighter players because that is how I started out.

As for leveling myself - I only need to be good close to 30% on the river right? This factored into my call as well. Thoughts?

i would call, so many times ive been in this spot where i cbet and they call with a 2nd or 3rd pair (many times pocket pairs) and then they lead the river

the other day i called with 7's on a 832TJ board in a very similar hand and i was good

i would call here

pretty much exaactly what i put the villain on so many pair+ gutshots in his range

also pocket pairs that are gutshots

I'm not sure what I think of the l/c PF by V but I do like his play post flop quite a bit. River bet isn't going to get called by most hands without a heart. nh by both IMO.

Can we as a thread take a second to talk about this? Because I'm conflicted and would like to hear some outside input. My gut reaction was that I didn't like his river bet because he has considerable showdown value and it looks like OP either has nothing (so there's no need for 88 to bet) or a marginal hand he was trying to pot control with, in which case he could call the river. But then again I and a lot of others ITT suggested that OP should fold so if he's folding hands like 9x the bluff is probably a good one. Also if he checks I'm not sure if it should be to c/c or c/f.

With the given reads I don't really think we're good here 30% of the time.
I mean don't get me wrong I've definitely been in this kind of spot and made calls because of gameflow dynamics(shout out to my boy ILCD) and lollive reads.
But just with the reads you gave I think I very rarely call. Who knows though, I barrel the turn. I wonder what he would have done if you bet turn. I also wonder if he was just betting the river because you checked the turn and figured you could fold a strong hand, or if he bet the river because "I have a pair and he checked the turn gotta bet".
On the flop when he calls he probably thinks he has the best hand.

Grunch:

With your image, I'd rather bet the turn smallish (~100) and check back the river than go into calldown mode. AP, I think it's a fold. If the turn were the A or K instead of the 7, I think I could see a call.

All you beat are two overs with 88, he's expecting TT-JJ and 9x to fold to his bluff, even maybe Qx. It wasn't a value bet. It also prevented him from being bluffed off his hand - basically, he decided b/f > c/c here given the OP's range.

Do you think the Q has any impact on his river play? It does hit a decent part of my range that checks the turn.

I am not sure he has too much of a read on me yet, but if I bet the turn it may look a lot like a bet/fold play...

If Villain was b/f, then I have to say I like it alot.

I think Villain can c/c about 1/2 pot getting 3:1 on the call.

Limping UTG with 88, and calling on this flop is totally fine. Especially given the fit/fold table.

It would be interesting to have Villain come to this thread and say what he would have done if Hero bet the turn. Picking up a flush draw and gutshot straight draw.... IDK, I think Villain has to call any reasonable sized bet, or even c/r to take it down.

I think OP is being resylts oriented. The only hand he beats is what he had. Too many value hands in his range.

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Such as what? A set isn't slowplaying flop, FD+overs is probably played more aggressively OTF as well, and I think his rare 2pair combos and Qx hands c/c the river.

The more I think about this, the more I lean towards a call. This is either a small flush or a bluff, and combinatorically V has more bluffs than flushes in his range.

By posting this hand I am not being results oriented. Get it?

List the value hands villain plays this way please.

We really have no idea how he's playing right? Just that he's not spewing, and seems kind of tight. Might "know" what he's doing. This is just not enough info to make that call otr.
When he limps utg then calls this flop I'm ranging him on pocket pairs suited aces suited broadways and sc's.
When he continues otf he has 9x 66-88 and heart draws
The only part of that range we beat otr is 66-88 and 89 granted we have 33% against this range, but the main thing that makes me fold is that we don't have enough info on guy to deduct that he's capable of bluffing a hand like 66-88 otr. based on info given I think he shows up with a flush or some random weird 2p. I really hate assuming that someone is capable of bluffing the river without being shown otherwise (since decent sized river bluffs are pretty rare)