Stack sizes

UTG - Banker (2k) - Big spot in the game, loose passive whale
MP (irrelevant)
HJ - Owns a dumpster company (2k) - Competent aggressive opponent but he has money to burn so he calls too much, bluffs too much etc...
CO - Owns a roofing company (3k) - Biggest spot in the player pool who straddles to 20/30 every chance he gets.
BTN - Hero (1.5k) - Viewed as solid winning player

CO asks me to BTN straddle and I oblige.

Hero is dealt 83

Blinds fold, UTG limps, MP limps, HJ limps, CO limps, BTN checks

With the CO in the hand I can't raise here since nobody is folding. Pretty clear check imo.

Pot is 50
Flop is AT7

UTG bets out 20, HJ raises to 65, Hero...

um.

flatting is probably bad because then everyone calls and we hate like 40% of turns

I think making a smallish 3b like to 140 possibly entices the loose-passives to tag along with 2p/77/Kx

I think we can safely fold to a 4b too as it takes a really really special kind of opponent to 4b semibluff K or a set here and even players who tend to overvalue big hands super deep are usually getting scared on monotone boards.

e: on second thought having it go 4 ways to the turn and then just giving up on bad cards isn't really horrible

It would likely go 3 ways if I flat the raise.

I flat and get ready to go bat s*** crazy OTT on non-diamond cards. You may even be able to flat the turn also depending on the action. With the dynamic explained I don't think we need to start building a pot or try to protect our measly flush. These guys are going to build a pot for us and we likely have the best hand. I have no problem controlling the pot early and then bombing later on safe boards (read: no more diamonds).

It sounds weak typing it out, but I like the flat flop raise safe turn line here.

HJ aint stopping on any turn with his K. B/f or raise/f the turn, unless dumpster man is capable of going absolutely nuts with the K imo.

i think our hand gets announced far louder by raising the flop than by just calling it. villains as described seem most likely to 1) be concerned about their hand and 2) put you on a draw the second you call the flop and never reconsider the position. This gives you an excellent opportunity to have them call your bluffs on later streets.

flat is pretty obvious imo. raising is too strong, folding too weak. You have position throughout the rest of the hand.

It's sick that you are 400bb with all these "whales."

Anyway, I think the cold 3bet is a tad better even though it looks super strong. Like DK mentioned earlier, 34% of the time (or 68%, if this gets to the river), a crappy card will come that will make you fold if you just flat here ( any or a paired board).

Bet/fold like $150 and if they both fold you should still be happy to take it down. I would expect a call from K or Q draws, 2p, and sets though if villains are accurately described.

Sometimes, there's just no way to disguise the strength of our hand and we have to resign ourselves to the fact that playing "face-up" is still better than playing tricky (even though it hurts our egos).

Flatting is okay too because a brick turn is going to make you alot of money if they continue the action, but you are also going to open yourself up to alot of mistakes.

The big problem I'm having with the flop is this:

When is raising the flop here the right play?

Can we ever be bluffing here?

Balancing isn't something you ever need to be thinking about at LLSNL.

Not saying this is necessarily true for this particular situation, but not having a bluff/raising portion of your range in a situation is often quite fine.

Raising can be right, but I'd prefer to be shallower and against people I have absolutely no respect for.

150bb IMO ....

Yep 150bb. Flat obv. The dynamic we need to pick up on here is HJ raises light and the flop lead is weak. Raising is overplaying our hand. Easy peasy flat. Next action. R/f is terrible bc we're going to be playing against stronger hands, and it looks like these clowns will build a pot anyhow. There is also the chance by raising we allow hj to bluff shove against us. Let him and his bluffs have the lead.

You said he bluffs/calls too much.

Don't need to play GTO when you have reads like this.

Just exploit his leaks.

Pretty clear flat for me as well.

I see more value bluff catching IP than trying to protect our equity.

Oh, another factor to consider is how much do you have on you? With less than 2 bullets in pocket, raising is out of question with this line up.

So UTG's limp then donks range is sets/two pair/TPTK with the nfd/and flushes. He can have AA/TT/77in his range pretty easily imo.

HJ's raising range is like flushes/sets/two pair but he is never bluffing here really with the CO left to act behind him.

I tanked for a little while but didn't really want to tank too long and I think all 3 decisions have merit but for the first time in like 4 months my heart really started pumping. It is probably a combination of just how poorly I've ran the past several sessions and that I'm such a BR nit that 20x buyins @ 100xbb doesn't feel like "enough".

Anyway, neither of these players is ever folding a set or a flush and the HJ is raising PF with a lot of his flush combos (suited broadways etc...) but he is limping with a lot of hideous looking suited cards as well.

Hero 3bet/folds to 205, UTG folds, HJ calls

Pot is 480

Turn is the 3
HJ checks, Hero...

I'd flat the flop.

As played we're getting it in. 350 ott.

So you are planning to stack off here?

One of the biggest reasons I raised OTF was to get value from sets and I'm getting value OTT but I don't know how many combos of flushes I beat OTR to a ship.

"HJ - Owns a dumpster company (2k) - Competent aggressive opponent but he has money to burn so he calls too much, bluffs too much etc..."

With the description you gave I cannot find a reason to fold. I am with BGP here, but I might bet even more OTT ($425, somewhere in there).

Fwiw if I bet the turn I am bet/folding; he just isn't bluffing in this spot after I 3bet the flop but like when I say he bets too much I can bluff catch him really wide.

Does that make sense? He isn't a maniac but he is the sort to make a bet if checked too even though my hand is face up as a bluff catcher because he can't win if the pot with SDV.

I guess thinking of his range if I am betting I am looking for a bet size that gets called by all worse hands, the flop 3b is very strong so I think I need to be cautious about value cutting myself with a huge bet.

Like combinatorically how many worse flushes can he have?

i think i prefer flatting the flop as deep as we are, can feel comfortable folding to diamond or paired board...not many smaller flushes possible so if the money gets in on the flop then you are almost always drawing dead (runner runner sfd)

as played bet turn ~420/call based on description...congratulate whale/ask him to buy you a drink and reload

Yuck ^ ... All the more reason to flat the flop IMO.

$300 is probably a nice round number to b/f if that's your plan.

That's exactly the problem, but at the same time, I am not comfortable playing for stacks.

56, 46 & 45 probably none of the other ones...

flop:

flat>3b/f>3b/call