2/5 100bbs eff

Moved to a new table, no reads on v (BTN, mid 30s male).
I am in MP with KJo. Nine way limped pot where I flop a straight.

Flop (~$50) AQ10r
Hero bets $50, only v calls.

Turn ($150) AQ10Kr
Hero bets $130, v calls.

River ($410) AQ10K10
Hero checks, v bets $300 and is all-in.

Are you calling here like always? Do you ever consider folding?

Meh. I'd prolly fold or raise pre flop, but whatever.

River we need to be good here >60% of the time, but he should never have sets in his range. And A lot of two pairs should fold the turn when the 4liner the straight comes along. It is likely close, as we are chopping a good portion of the time. I'd prolly sigh call here.

I agree. How the hand played out. I toss a chip in and let him roll his hand.

Hmmm just fold pre-flop. Weak position, so many more to act, and readless, I'm just not convinced you see a flop often enough, and, when you do, I'm also not sure KJo is such a great multi-way hand especially from meh position. That said, it's just a speculative $5 limp - in this case, you did go 9-way with position on 1/2 the table. It worked out OK.

Iraisetoomuch, we never have to be good > 60% of the time. A bet into an empty side pot gives us 1:1, requiring 50%. That should be the worse we ever have, unless we have reason to consider a) chops or b) free rolls, in which case we have reason to believe a) we're only playing for half the pot or b) we will often chop or lose rather than win outright.

Are you considering chop scenarios in your calculation?

On its face, we're getting 7:3 or 2.33:1 or 30% required equity.

I think I c/f river. AT, KT, QT are consistent with V's line, not that rare combinatorically, and I don't think he always or often shoves Jx on the river. I mean, if it's a bluff to get us off an obvious chop, kudos to him. It's a pity you're readless. I guess KQ is another possible bluff. And Iraisetoomuch, maybe this goes back to your equity calculation - we are often probably chopping vs a "bluff" or losing. Was that how you got to 60%? Because yeah, in that case, I think it's an easy fold.

I do think V will call two pair on the turn.

What he'll almost never do is have a pure bluff.

I'd call but expect him to have a j also. jt,aj, qj, even kj

Good example of why to play tight when you first sit down.

HU I call every time. 9 handed, I need the read, and even though he's a stranger, I go with my read. GTO maybe flip a coin twice and fold if they're both heads.

Just ship the turn.

Raise or fold pre as others have mentioned.

River must call. I can't see many AT, KT, QT hands limping pre with so much dead money.

I call and expect to chop this.

Yes, I am considering a chop. I think villain has Jx here some % of the time, a full house here some % of the time. So we are (basicly) never winning the whole thing.

trucdouf, what's the math to call for a chop?

It's basically 300 to win 200, and that does require 60% equity, right?

AT(6), KT(4), QT(6) are 16 combos. Not rare.

I mean, really simplified math, but 16/(1-.6) = 40 total combinations or 40 - 16 = 24 Jx combos just to break even. I'm really not seeing us get there if we're mostly expecting to chop or lose. KT and QT are certainly in limping ranges - we have KJo after all. AT can be as well.

And Jx definitely sometimes checks behind.

Say it checks behind 50% of the time.

Then we'd need V to have 48 Jx combos in his full range just to break even.

The math, though simplified, makes me feel even better about folding.

Call. He likely folds anything but Jx on turn.

This is a clear fold.

How many Tx hands can the villain have that he's jamming on the river that we beat? We chop with JT and lose to all full houses.

Do we think a random $2/5 Villain is going nuts with T9 after we've potted the flop and turn? I sure don't.

I think the issue everyone is looking at is how often does villian NOT have a jack, after we potted flop and turn. We only lose if villian doesn't have a jack.

And people are looking at the fact that villian limped in.

For 100bb i think you def got out played if he had a J... You should just shove the river yourself..
2 prs arent calling turn on a oneliner and sets prob raise flop unless they are a total mubs player... Its too bad you cked the rvr... Just my opinion, but i have had a lot of success bluffing ppl off chops these types of spots... Also they could think they have the best hand with a straight in this spot...

Was the board fully rainbow?

If you lose to a boat just reload its only 100bb and a cooler...

We're calling to chop at best. Random $2/5 players arent stuffing Tx on the river unless they're full especially given we have shown so much strength.

Yeah. I think what people are looking at is how often random 2/5 players HAVE Tx. Esp. compared to Jx.

Raise or fold pre, not a fan of limping KJo in MP.

On the turn, bet enough so you're never folding river, maybe $200?

On the river, I don't think this is a combo counting spot, it's a read spot. Is he bad enough to call turn with 2pair? Bad enough to limp PP pre and slowplay it on the flop? Passive enough he'd never jam Jx? Good enough to read that you only have Jx here and might be able to fold it?

AP, win $710 if bluffing, win $205 if chopping, lose $300 if a boat or quads. idk

Did he have quads? 2nd guess Kings full.