Villain ~300 seems like he knows what hes doing, has been at the table longer than me, and has been solid. Seen him get called 1 time when he tried to bluff with k6 when he missed his flush on a 756/4/7 board and got called by someone who misread the board and had 5/6 and he won with k6

Villain did just lose a big hand against a fish who was fairly short stacked. ~$200-250 he lost when the fish flopped top set against what was his TPTK/2p by how fast he called his shove. Villain is tilted.

Hero ~$700 Heros been playing ABC all night, nothing special has been shown, except for i made a hero call and was right about it. Other than that, no hands of mine have really been seen at showdown.

Hero straddles to $10 OTB, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, V calls, then the CO makes it $40 and hero looks down at Q10 and calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, then V from MP carelessly makes it $160, original raiser (CO) folds and Hero goes allin.

I feel like Villain is definitely trying to just steal here. I feel like his range is any pocket pairs (2's+ and AJ+) and then just random hands like suited connectors. I feel like his range is super wide here and with our hand, and $160 potentially dead money (if the people behind us fold too) its well worth it to Flip with our hand vs any pocket pair and even AK.

Thoughts?

Danger, Will Robinson.

Limping big pockets is not a rarity.

Limping AK is also not a rarity.

$160 sounds like a lot but by the time it gets to Villain it is less than a pot sized raise.

We are currently way behind IMO.

I would fold here unless I'm sure villain is tilting hard. The problem is that you are either priced in or crushed. If he is really tilting and raising real wide you are priced in because of the dead money in the pot. However, it is only big +EV if villain is on super tilt and pushing with ATC. Even if he is raising with a 25% range he still wins more then lose against your hand and you make a little +EV because of the dead money. If he isn't tilting then you are crushed. So you need to be real sure he is tilting before this is actually profitable and even then you will lose a lot.

Pots is $210 and V only has $290 behind. Raise to $160 leaving himself $140 back would make me a bit curious. It's a perfect spot to jam with a bluff/semi bluff so why is V putting himself in a spot where he is likely going to get called/raised with something marginal. Looks to me like he wants value from a monster, if he's at all competetent he would have to be on complete brain shut down tilt to be raising light here.

There is a textbook tell that says if a player looks back down at his hand again b4 makes a substantial bet/raise, it is usually an indication of him having a big hand. I am looking forward to finding out if that is the case here.

Spewy

looks spewy to me, Villian could limp with a tight range here.

If villan has 700 behind, I would be ok with your play but with 140 behind you are getting called and are probably behind.

ofc he´s behind and gets called, thats not the question, it´s about whether it pays him to "flip" here slightly behind with all the dead money in the pot. it´s a pretty simple calculation, but only you can tell if he l/r big pairs sometimes or somewhat often or whether he would usually just call the 40 with marginal hands to take a flop.

looks a lot like small/medium pp tbh, but as someone stated, there is something fishy going on raising to 160 leaving 140 behind from a competent player...

also, another problem, your hand is totally face up vs any decent villain, and if sb is decent, his sb cold call repps a pretty strong range, and he might call you here too. TT/JJ/AQ, maybe sometimes AJ/AT/AK might all call you here; same goes for utg.

does look a bit spewy
can´t be too bad imo, but looks to be close -EV at first glance, but tbh only you can decide here, mostly judging villains l/r range in this spot after losing one big hand. if he shoves KQ/QJs type stuff, you´re in trouble too

It is hero that looked down at his hand, and only because he was straddling and had no need to look at it before the action was on him.

I personally think 22-99 is very worst he could show up with...so you're way behind most of the time.

Villain is never folding. Against villains range hero is slight favorite if he js favorite at all. People talk about taking small edges at cash games. I doubt it at llsnl. At llsnl, there will be so many spots with better edges if you are a decent player. And many llsnl players have max 3 buy in stop loss. What if you lose coin flip ? Will it affect your game afterward?
If you are willing to take small edge here, you should be able to take cooly if villains shows up with 72 and outdraws you. But the reality is most of llsnl payers are not. They might go on tilt if villains 72 beats their TQ suited.

You still have players behind you to act behind you...this is spew. If you were closing the action and stacks were deeper then could advocate a call with position. It's been a growing trend to see people limping in and playing their big pocket pairs passively in EP and MP...keep waiting for someone to show me differently in these spots but just doesn't happen often enough.

On a side note...had pretty much the exact same scenario happen last night at the isle when I had JTcc. V who had limped along in middle position and then raises a 1/3 of his stack when someone raises and it gets back to him. I was closing the action and called thinking there was enough dead money out there to justify it. Flop a J on flop....gii and he shows up with QQ.

U should probably quit poker lol. Even thinking any way this could be genius means you are really bad when someone has that little behind they should never fold.

It might have worked but it's far from genius. You might be flipping but if he's really on tilt he's never folding, but with the dead money its ok.

I think this is part of the problem, don't worry about being a genius/idiot to your table mates/2+2.

praying for a flip here

How about neither Spew nor Genius, a better title is "What is V's overcall/3B jam range?"

If V's range is something like 22+, AKs-T9s, 1-gapers AQs-J9s per Hero's suggested range then we have $43% equity.

With a final pot of $770 our equity returns $331 to us.

The real question is what range does V do this with?

Does V really overcall the straddle with JJ+ with 3 callers in front of him already? V has to really believe either CO or Hero on the Btn is going to be raising 90% of the time to make this play.

V line is strange and I would weight toward 88-JJ and AK, AQs giving us 40% equity.

at least you lol´d though

Finally someone who sees things the way I do.

I don't understand how you guys can EVER give him credit for JJ+ here. Is he really over limping with a big PP? I've never gotten out of line, and there is no reason for him to think I'm going to raise the straddle.

And for all of you making comments about him folding, I know hes never folding. I'm looking to just flip here vs any PP, bad suited aces, and marginal hands with all the dead money in the middle.

good point, but the same applies to you. Are you really flatting the button $40 with JJ+ with all those callers behind you?

Assuming no fold equity (which I agree with), your equity edge with QT looks break-even/slightly ahead of an optimistic limp/4bet range (20%). I don't hate the play, but I'd look for a slightly better hand to go to battle with: KJss, Axsooted, 44-66 would be the worst hands I'd go with--IF my read was that villain is tilting.

Great point, I thought of this as well.

Well, would you call if he jammed 300 instead? If no then don't shove as he is calling 100% here.

Lets just say i would open call with Qhi for stacks almost never.

Sorry dude. Spewy