Eff stacks 350$, hero has been active, but has made one big call and a big fold face up vs villian. Probably viewed as solid, but definitely bluffs in good spots. villian has been playing tight pre flop as well as post, but from history I know he can make moves

Bunch of limps as was normal at table, I check BB 47dd.

flop AA10dd. Checks around, I believe 5 people in the pot?
Turn Qd. I check with the intention of calling turn and river bets. Villian bets 25$, I call.

river J. I check, villian bets 65, with about $250 behind. I realize than my line here would look super nutted if I jam, and might get max Value from a lone A, which I don't think Villian calls, but maybe from a K. Combined with the fact that I might get folds from flushes that beat me, I conclude:

Jam>>Call?

I think this is spewy vs someone not capable of folding a flush here, but I think villian is definitely capable of folding a flush as well as looking me up light depending on his read. Thoughts?

Hero check/raises all in.

Villain insta-calls and turns over a full house?

This is one of those hands where you can only call and pray that you're good half the time. If you jam you only get called by a better hand. I'm pretty sure that a solid opponent would've bet the A on the flop so there ain't an A out there unless it's an A10.

He's obviously value betting and I'm pretty sure that the worst he'll ever have there is a 2nd or 3rd nut flush.

Btw, if he did call your shove with a so-so flush it's because your line is pretty weird. You are clearly repping a full-house yet the full house would've raised on the turn in order to build the pot because another diamond on the river could be an action killer if the villain does have a semi-weak flush.

I'm folding the river.

hero check jams.

Interesting... I'd just call. A better flush probably wouldn't fold - he might think you're jamming a straight based on how you played the flop and the turn. A full house is definitely calling a shove and you lose. It really looks like villain is bluffing though or has three aces.

Flop checks through, and then V takes the lead on a Q against 5 people on a AAxx board and still barrels the river? He could have KJ, but that's like the only hand we beat. I know we beat Ax also, but that is a pretty ballsy/thin bet by V OTR IMO. It shows strength. I probably make a crying call here and expect to be beat quite often. There may be some merit to shoving, but without better reads, positions, game flow, etc. I can't be sold on that. Smells boat-ish.

I 100% agree, I'm finding it hard to describe what was going through my head at the time. Game flow might've been the biggest decision for me thinking shove was best, we had been at the table for 3 hours and the only hands where anyone went all in was with the stone nuts, the other player never called, but the player with nuts was still nice enough to show the hand. I also think villian should be aware of both our images, and that I am as well. I was also of the opinion that any hand that villian filled up on, wouldve raised pre, except A10, giving me more FE.

If this was a player that I thought was never folding a flush, then this topic becomes
call>fold?, or the opposite, obv depending on the exact player.

*GRUNCH*

I'm betting turn or check/raising. By check/raising, worse can call us (any ace-X, a big single (i.e. K9), straight, ect.

As played, first step to solving this is range.

You didn't say what position villain was in. This matters, HUGE. If he was UTG, there's a chance of AK, AA, or KK in his range. If he was on the button, there's almost no chance of those hands.

I'll assume MP. Since he's tight pre, we can remove ace rag offsuit from his range. We can also remove K9 or worse. Also, you didn't specify what "tight pre" means. Is he passive pre, often limping with like AJ or AQ. Is he tight in raising pre but loose in limping?

Against a river range of 10% bluffs, 90% made hands, where the made hands are:

AJ, A10, A9, king high flush, Jack high flush, 98, KJ (no flush), KQ (any KQo with the K)...

Let's assume he will fold A9, 98, straights, and the bluffs.

EV calling = .9(.67391*$140 - .32609*$65) + .1($65) = +$59.6

Time for combinatorics: Combos folding hands =

A9 = 8 combos
98s = 1 combo
straights = 15 combos + 18 combos = 33 combos
total folding combos = 42 combos

Total calling combos =

A10 = 6 combos
AJ = 6 combos
king and jack high flush = 2 combos

Total calling combos = 14 combos

So he folds 42/56 times, or 75% of the time, calling 25% of the time. Note: I didn't include the 10% bluffs since I'm including that separately in the EV calculation.

EV shoving = .1($140) + .9(.75*$140 - .25*$315) = $14 + .9($26.2) = +$37.58

Conclusion: EV calling is +$59.6 while EV shoving is +$37.58. Since EVcall>EVshove, I'd call river. If the EVs were almost the same, I'd shove since it's great for our image.

Is this big analysis necessary to get to the right answer? Yes I'd say so...it ended up being fairly close, only about a $25 difference in EV, and it's near impossible to know that without doing the EV calcs.

Great post. Unfortunately I didn't remember the exact details of the positions, etc, because a friend who I hadn't seen who in a while was at the table and we were talking a lot, normally I would include these details.

Thanks. I guess another big thing learned from this analysis is that even though boats will take this line often, there are so few combos of them compared to KQ or KJ. Both KQ and KJ also make perfect sense with this line, and there are about double as many combos of these hands than boats.

In other words, villain having a straight is twice as likely has him having a boat.

I really like a jam here. I would have cr the turn though too. Hes going to call you with a straight a lot of the time here.

I kinda prefer leading the river. I think there's a good number of hands that will call a bet but that won't bet themselves on a pretty scary board.