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2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts 2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts

09-30-2010 , 06:04 PM
Close to zero chance villain has AA here...

Hero has KK in lp, raises pre to 25 after a couple limpers, villain in sb calls, limpers call. pot ~100

Flop comes 10,10,8 (3 tone, suits irrelevant to hand). Checks to me, I bet 75, villain calls, the rest fold. Villain has ~450 behind at this point, I cover. I have no specific reads on him, first orbit at table. He's younger, doesn't seem fishy.

Turn is a 9. (pot ~250) Villain checks, hero checks.

River 10. villain leads 80 with ~370 behind. Your action?
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
09-30-2010 , 06:23 PM
I'm usually just calling here.

Possible villain's range:

{88, TT+, AT, KT, QT, JT, A8s, T9s, T8s, J9, 97s, some-random-TX live-station hands, some-random-8X live-station hands}

You can beat enough of this range to call, obviously.

But if the villan re-raises large, it would suck...

If the villain only min-raises it would be easy to call, if villain raises large it would be hard to call, but in both cases a raise most often indicates we are beat. Thus raise/call sucks.

However, live-low villains are horrible, so villain might acidentally do something brilliant like re-raising us off the best hand. And since they are horrible, T6o is apart of thier range.

For these reasons, I prefer a call. Calling might lose a little bit of value. But raising might be a huge mistake. If we have the best hand, give villian credit for setting such a low price.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
09-30-2010 , 06:54 PM
I shove here for thin value. Expect him to call with some JJ, QQ, 89, 88, 99 hands.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
09-30-2010 , 09:55 PM
We are missing out on too much value if we're not raising the river here IMO. Villains river bet looks like a blocking bet with a hand he wants a cheap show down with.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 01:45 AM
I may be doing something incredibly wrong, but I'd never do anything but call here.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 02:18 AM
OP said he has no reads on him and doesn't seem fishy. With that info I'm calling here. Just remember what he showed up with.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 02:57 AM
My poker math isn't very good but how often does villain need to call a min-raise on the river for it to be a solid play? It just seems to me that his range is thin value with an 8/9/underpair versus our perceived AK often enough that I think a min-raise could induce a call from worse often enough that we can risk the RRAI from AA/Quads.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TienXia
My poker math isn't very good but how often does villain need to call a min-raise on the river for it to be a solid play? It just seems to me that his range is thin value with an 8/9/underpair versus our perceived AK often enough that I think a min-raise could induce a call from worse often enough that we can risk the RRAI from AA/Quads.
If we take this line, what are we doing if villain shoves?
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 01:20 PM
I fold to shove. Maybe that's spew?
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 02:46 PM
I would jam if villain is a donk or clueless. If villain has any idea about this kind of board in poker then I can't see how its anything but a call barring any sick metagame/super laggy image that OP seems absent of since even a very mediocre player would probably be savvy enough to realize we're virtually never bluff-shoving here.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by in rilievo
I would jam if villain is a donk or clueless. If villain has any idea about this kind of board in poker then I can't see how its anything but a call barring any sick metagame/super laggy image that OP seems absent of since even a very mediocre player would probably be savvy enough to realize we're virtually never bluff-shoving here.
I agree with this.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 07:33 PM
minraise
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 07:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by br3nt00
minraise
And do what if villain shoves?
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 09:39 PM
i dont htink he ever will. if he does i guess puke fold hes got the case 10
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-01-2010 , 10:34 PM
Does JJ, QQ or 9x fold to a raise on the river here?
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote
10-05-2010 , 12:20 AM
An $80 bet into a $250 pot after you check the turn, sure looks like a blocking bet, or a value bet with a 9. I'd put him to the test for his stack and expect him to call with an 8 or better. To see him flat with AA when there are limpers is very very rare in my live experience. I also don't see a lot of people making big folds with a boat very often. I've seen hands worse than 8x call in this spot, and when your against quads oh well, reload.
2/5 river play w/ most likely 2nd nuts Quote

      
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