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2/5 river against solid pro 2/5 river against solid pro

12-06-2021 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium 2/5 river against solid pro
Thanks. I recognize river call is very bad after I checked the hand in PIO. At least -$50 EV.

Anyway… If you don’t mind me asking, what would be the bottom of your flop call range in this spot? Would you defend 65s/66, or would you defend tighter than that? I assume some hands like 66 or 65s would possibly function well as x/r’s, too. Any feedback is appreciated since it’s hard to get information about multi-way stuff.
you can't run this in pio; ranges/strategies on flop 4 ways are so insanely different/unintuitive from a headsup spot here that it changes the turn and river drastically. My guess is the river call is losing a lot more given flop was multiway

To the bolded, you don't have to think in terms of defending a % of your range in any spot in poker, but especially not in a multiway spot where you are oop with 2 players left to act behind you; you are going to overfold a ****ton and that's ok. The bottom of your range is quite literally the bottom hands that can continue profitably, and that's it. Mostly just a queen and draws tbh, with some small smattering of 5x 4x, in a pretty unbalanced calling range, with a lot of your strongest hands much preferring to raise. Another cool way to play this spot is to tighten up even further and play minraise or fold (as a simplification)
12-06-2021 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman 2/5 river against solid pro
you can't run this in pio; ranges/strategies on flop 4 ways are so insanely different/unintuitive from a headsup spot here that it changes the turn and river drastically. My guess is the river call is losing a lot more given flop was multiway
One more question if you have the time…
I was hoping to run this spot HU in PIO using a nodelock on COs bet range (I realize that still doesn’t tell me about my optimal defense because IRL I have to contend with players left to act, especially PFR who should be x-raising @ nontrivial frequency.)

Still…I am trying to determine a good pro’s live cbet range in this spot and I’m assigning it to be
{QJo,QT,Q9s,Q8s … KJo,KTo (with a diamond) … A2s,A3s, 64s, 65s,75s,67s,68s … 12 combos of front door flush draws… J9s, J8s, T8s, T9s (with BDFD)….66/77}.
This is 91 combos of hands. Does that range seem too wide in this spot? If I remove the 66/77 which seem light, I get 79 combos of hands.

I am just trying to fill in a reasonable range given that I saw him showdown KdTx as a flop cbet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman 2/5 river against solid pro
To the bolded, you don't have to think in terms of defending a % of your range in any spot in poker, but especially not in a multiway spot where you are oop with 2 players left to act behind you; you are going to overfold a ****ton and that's ok. The bottom of your range is quite literally the bottom hands that can continue profitably, and that's it. Mostly just a queen and draws tbh, with some small smattering of 5x 4x, in a pretty unbalanced calling range, with a lot of your strongest hands much preferring to raise. Another cool way to play this spot is to tighten up even further and play minraise or fold (as a simplification)
If there were a player left to act UTG (a limp-caller) I would only have continued with Qx and draws. I had thought that in this configuration I could continue a bit more liberally. But I guess I’m wrong. I am probably overstating the importance of PFR checking. PFR should be x-raising at a decent frequency and I am neglecting to factor that into my thought process. If I hold Qx and PFR check-raises, CO folds, I’m in a much better spot than if I’m holding any other hand.

Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 12-06-2021 at 11:09 AM.
12-06-2021 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium 2/5 river against solid pro
{QJo,QT,Q9s,Q8s … KJo,KTo (with a diamond) … A2s,A3s, 64s, 65s,75s,67s,68s … 12 combos of front door flush draws… J9s, J8s, T8s, T9s (with BDFD)….66/77}.
This is 91 combos of hands.
Eh, I forgot to include 55/44/54s in the estimate of COs range.
12-07-2021 , 01:17 PM
So, I wanted to report some of the follow-up analysis I completed on PIO using nodelocking to fix the IP player's c-bet strategy.

I think overtlysexual, 3for3, browni, playbig2000 had it right that flop should be a fold.

As jarretman and others noted, my first PIO analysis that had 88 as a defend HU at around $30 EV was fundamentally flawed because the IP players cbet strategy was completely bogus. For one, in my first PIO sim IP player isn't betting off all of his Qx and good draws because IP player is inclined to protect his checking range with some strong hands. My understanding is that in a multiway spot, there is no need for IP to protect a check-back range, so he's just gonna bet all his strongest hands (Qx/2pair/sets/strong draws). In general his range is gonna be a lot stronger due to this.

To try to get some understanding of 88s value against the much stronger betting range, I ran another PIO sim and nodelocked IPs bet strategy to consist of all of the following hands:
{QJ,QT,Q9s,Q8s … ATo,KJo,KTo,JTo (with a diamond)… A2s,A3s (with front door FD or BDFD)... 64s, 65s,75s .... 67s,68s,78s ….... KTs, K9s, JTs, J9s, J8s, T9s with front door or BDFD ... front door flush draws A9s-A6s, 97s, 98s, T8s ... 88/77/66}
This is a pretty wide range. Realistically, I don't know if he's even stabbing with backdoor draws as weak as AxTd or KxTd.

Against this very wide betting range the EV of a call with my marginal second pair hands w/o a diamond is:
99: $12
88: $6
65s: $4
75s: $3
77: $0
66: -$1

For comparison, 88 with a diamond has EV of $17 as a call. And PIO actually prefers to raise this hand at about 66% frequency.

What this means for the multiway scenario is, if I assume PFR is x-raising at a significant frequency, all of these hands except possibly for 99 become -EV calls.
EG if PFR check-raises at 20% frequency, I'm losing .2*$40 = -$8 in EV from that.

Also, if IP is stabbing less light, then EV of 88 drops further. I had run another nodelock sim where I removed some of the weaker hands (like half of the offsuit broadway combos with a diamond) and found that 88 (no diamond) is a $0 EV call HU in that sim.

Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 12-07-2021 at 01:30 PM.
12-07-2021 , 06:22 PM
Pio cant account for 2 players left to act behind you and your range for what villain is betting is still way off. Don't try to apply "theory" to this spot imo. Look at pokersnowie or monker if you really want to see

      
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