Playing 2/5. Very active table and just about every hand had someone going all in by the turn. I have been playing very tight compared to the table. Have taken a few hands down on the flop after raising pre and cbetting.

Hero (750)
Raise to 20 UTG with 22. Normally I wouldn't do this but I know the money is going in if I hit a set and I'm firing two bullets with any A, K, Q since I wasn't meeting much resistance when I played a hand. 4 callers. All of them have been loose so far playing roughly 70% of flops.

Flop (100) 2s 3h 8s
Hero accidentally drops 40 (1green,3red). All four quickly call. Two players realized I accidentally dropped the chips for my bet, other two probably did not notice.

Turn (300) Qd. Hero?

x/r

If the other players are aggressive and will not fold once they take the lead, c/r for as much as you can get. If they aren't likely to take the lead, then bet 200 for value. If the table is as loose as you say, they aren't folding a flush draw.

As played xr is probably good. Opening 22 here is very bad though.

Agree that opening here seems very bad based on info given. I don't think your barreling plan is too solid seeing as the hand will most likely go mw. i think I like limping more. I wouldn't x/r. Bet 175-250 to set up a river shove. You make it sound like villains won't be folding a Q, fd, or even a sd if there are multiple callers which there very well may be. Unless they are aggressive/wild everyone will likely check behind unless they have Qx+ but they will call with those so just bet now to avoid giving a free card to hands that are more likely to call a bet ott than bet if checked to.

I guess if the 4 callers are behind us c/r may be ok but I would be betting here.

ye dbarrel is prob better than xr in hindsight.

I'm OK with pre-flop if there hasn't been a lot of 3-betting, since we're setting a good price to hit our set and by being the PFR may be able to see a free turn too since no one else will have the betting lead. If there has been a meaningful amount of 3-bet I'd limp or fold pre.

Once I get 4 callers pre, I'm set mining and definitely not c-betting or barreling if I miss. Would c-bet head's up on most flops, and 3-way on some.

I'd bet 200 on turn to set up a river shove.

I completely agree I should not have raised and is part of the reason why I was so confused about the best line on the turn. Considering no one reraised pre I don't think QQ-AA is showing up ever here. One or two players will be on flush draw so what the hell are the other 2-3 players calling with on the flop. Mid pairs for sure, maybe ace high if they are third or fourth to act?

I didn't like the check because I feel I need to get value now but firing the turn makes my hand look like QQ+ or AQ which would get folds unless they held better I was thinking.

For the people advocating x/raising, are we assuming someone will bet here most of the time or to get more dead money in before clicking it up? Thank you for the responses so far

Forgot to ask. If a non flush card comes on the river are we always shoving? I was thinking another small card is almost worst since I feel like the villains are more ranged towards small pairs and SCs

Yes, you should be shoving all non-spades. If you make a $200 bet on the turn, you're giving them terrible odds to continue with any straight draw other than 54 (and really other than 5s4s), so if they call with 65 or 64 or something and bink you have to pay them off.

Calling ranges on the flop are pretty wide given your (accidental) small bet. Flush draws, 54, maybe gutshots like A4, A5, 46 or 56, especially with BDFD, 87, pocket pairs between 33-88, maybe 99-JJ though those probably raise your flop bet, and maybe some random hands with two overs and a BDFD. On the Q turn, you're betting to get value from all flush draws, especially those with the Qs, and from 54, Q8, random gut shots and whatever else people call with at a wild table.

I would love a check raise here. At least one of them is on spades, and probably two of them, so if one of your V's spikes a Q, with a spade draw, you are getting paid.

but it is a much higher variance play.

safe play is to lead for 175 and go for something ridiculously valueish on the river, like 150 on a non-spade river. or go for full value on a paired board spade river. of course, call any shoves over your lead.

no. absolutely not shoving non-spade rivers. going for silly value.

If I'm betting turn it's gonna be like 280+. Most flush draws have some straight draw or pair and they're not folding and 8x, 99-JJ is folding whether we bet 300 or 100 imo (unless one of the Vs is super fishy in which case everything kinda changes).

How did you accidentally bet $40 OTF? I feel like I've never done this before in 7+ years of live play . FWIW I bet $100 or close to it OTF in most games/tables that I frequent.

Hero bets 200, 1st to act villian calls and others fold.

Is a 300 bet better value to get heads up with stacks or should I have bet 150ish to get multiple callers?

River: (700) 10s

Hero?

i think you kind of screwed yourself from the flop, but i might shove this river

I can't decide between x/c and shove on this river. Villain will likely check back TPGK, 2 pair hands that he might call off but there's also the possibility that he'll try to represent the flush and turn his hand into a bluff with things that'd fold to a bet. I can't see folding getting nearly 3:1. Guess it's pretty dependent on our read of villain.